Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Good to see the Met Office retreating from their default mild forecasts!

[Don]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Good to see the Met Office retreating from their default mild forecasts!

Longer term, after the start of December, the Met Office are expecting a return to prevailing mild conditions, though.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 26 Nov - Tuesday 5 Dec

Most likely starting dry, settled and colder than average across the UK with widespread morning frost. Outbreaks of rain and slightly milder conditions are however soon likely to arrive into the northwest, spreading southeast to many parts. The early part of next week is most likely to be characterised by light winds and a mixture of wetter, cloudier conditions and colder, brighter and drier conditions, before winds from a broadly northwesterly direction become more established. These leading to periods of wet or showery weather focussed in the northwest of the UK, and largely dry weather elsewhere. Temperatures overall are most likely to be just a little colder than average, with only a very small chance of something much colder and wintry developing from mid to late next week.

Wednesday 6 Dec - Wednesday 20 Dec

A general trend through this period for a return to more changeable and unsettled weather, with wetter and windier than average conditions likely, especially in the west and northwest. Generally temperatures are expected to be near or above average, although short-lived colder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Turning colder for a time. Unsettled in December

Wednesday 22 November to – Sunday 26 November

Turning colder over the weekend

Monday 27 November to – Sunday 3 December

Drier in the south and west. Cool

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 17 December

Becoming more unsettled again

Further ahead

 

December often promises some rather unpredictable and testing weather conditions to forecast. Keeping up with the latest guidance and identifying cold or stormy spells will be our main priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 28 Nov - Thursday 7 Dec

Colder than average conditions are most likely overall, as chances of some wintry showers, or even more general snow towards the turn of the month, are increasing. Cloud and rain is likely to be clearing southeastern England early on, followed by a period of widely colder, drier and brighter weather and the return of overnight frosts. Scattered showers along with an overnight ice risk may affect some coastal areas of northern and eastern Scotland, and eastern England at times, which could turn increasingly wintry over hills in the north. These conditions could then persist, particularly in the north, but there is an increasing chance of areas of cloud, rain and/or snow, perhaps with strong winds too, spreading north across at least southern areas from later next week.

Friday 8 Dec - Friday 22 Dec

Should it not have already done so, following a spell of colder conditions the most likely trend through this period is for a return to milder, more changeable weather. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Generally temperatures are most likely to be near or above average, whilst short-lived colder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[damianslaw]

Sensing both met office and bbc are having to play big catch up with the models at range at short timespans, and hence I wouldn't be too confident in their mid term expectations. The BBC one should come with big margin for error, it seems very uncertain about December, the last statement suggests things might turn out very different. 

Met Office still see a transition to something milder a week or so into Dec, but this could easily be pushed back or never see the light of day.

 

[Paul_1978]

New blog issued Friday lunchtime. Lots of talk of hill snow and seemingly not much at lower levels: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/cold-spells-to-come

See also this accompanying graphic:

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Paul_1978
Typo

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

New blog issued Friday lunchtime. Lots of talk of hill snow and seemingly not much at lowers level: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/cold-spells-to-come

See also this accompanying graphic:

 

Never seen a definition of what is classed as 'hill snow', 200m, 400m, 600m? All very open to interpretation. Also what is 'low levels', another term used, and 'higher ground'. With any potential snow forecast, look outside, radar watch etc.  many many parameters. 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 29 Nov - Friday 8 Dec

Colder than average conditions overall continue to be most likely overall. Winds are likely to often be from the north, with a mixture of cold, quiet periods and some more showery episodes with rain, sleet and possibly hill snow. Any sleet and snow showers would be most likely to affect northern and eastern coastal districts. There remains a chance of more widespread snow spreading up from the south during at least the first part of this period, should this occur strong winds or even gales are possible across many parts, especially the south. Colder weather could persist throughout, however towards the end of the period there is an increasing likelihood of an upward trend in temperatures as new areas of cloud and rain attempt to move in from the Atlantic.

Saturday 9 Dec - Saturday 23 Dec

Should it not have already done so, following a spell of colder conditions the most likely trend through this period is for a return to milder, more changeable weather. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Generally temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't completely rule out further, lower likelihood spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 30 Nov - Saturday 9 Dec

Outbreaks of rain and some hill snow are likely to spread across parts of England and Wales during Thursday. This could be heavy and prolonged in places, before it begins to fade and clear away again to the south during Friday. Further north, a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers on Thursday and Friday, the showers most frequent near coasts. Over the weekend and into the following week, cold conditions and northerly winds are expected across the bulk of the UK. Showers will develop, these a mixture of rain, sleet and, at times, snow, with the most frequent showers across coastal districts in the north and east. Some inland areas, especially in the south, could be mainly dry and bright.

Sunday 10 Dec - Sunday 24 Dec

After a cold spell leading up to it, the most likely trend through this period is for a return to milder, more changeable weather. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold until early December, then turning milder

Saturday 25 November to – Sunday 3 December

Chilly and changeable. Wintry in places

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 10 December

Colder and unsettled then slightly milder

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 24 December

Milder and wetter than average

Further ahead

Will the weather models keep pointing towards milder conditions in the run-up to Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Well that didn’t last long!!

[BartyHater]

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

As far as I know the BBC weather just uses the previous EC det run.

[NewEra21]

18 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

In terms of temps, the BBC are always well off the mark. Usually come the day it’s at least a few degrees colder, they always overplay the temps.

[booferking]

19 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

If that's the weekly forecast it mentioned possibilty of laying snow to low laying areas Thurs and further on into weekend.

BBC iPlayer - Weather for the Week Ahead - 26/11/2023

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The latest weather forecast.

 

[tight isobar]

The BBC are using somewhat “stale data in their forecast. Further they will have to be as sparing as possible this far out- due to contingency planning disruption etc… as for what we are seeing atm- the 850 hpa syncs are ripe from around  north London/ Home Counties through to southern/ mid wales northward. Anyway that all speculation.. as engagement of any lps are unknown for- geographical pinpoint in the uk atm… over to the 12z suites..

Edited November 26, 2023 by tight isobar

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

If that's the weekly forecast it mentioned possibilty of laying snow to low laying areas Thurs and further on into weekend.

BBC iPlayer - Weather for the Week Ahead - 26/11/2023

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The latest weather forecast.

 

That's very different to what Sarah Keith Lucas showed.

[Chasbrown]

I wish the BBC would drop Meteogroup and go back to the Met Office. The forecast seemed much more detailed in those days. 

[Mark wheeler]

That's positive, we are in the lottery .

[Arch Stanton]

56 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

I wish the BBC would drop Meteogroup and go back to the Met Office. The forecast seemed much more detailed in those days. 

Agree 100%

[Summer Sun]

Friday 1 Dec - Sunday 10 Dec

Outbreaks of rain and perhaps some hill snow could affect parts of southeast England on Friday before clearing to the east later in the day. Elsewhere, a mixture of sunny spells and showers, with these showers most frequent near coasts. They are likely to be wintry in places, particularly further north where some snow could fall to low levels. Over the weekend and into the start of the following week, cold conditions are expected across the bulk of the UK. Showers will develop, these a mixture of rain, sleet and perhaps snow at times. Some inland areas, especially in the south, could be mainly dry and bright. Later in the week there is an increasing chance that milder, more changeable weather will begin to spread in from the west.

Monday 11 Dec - Monday 25 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[sorepaw1]

Me and my family always find the BBC Weather forecast misleading in our neck of the woods. 

They over estimated the daytime temperatures. And mention the word MILD to often. 

It's not mild here today It's not got above 3.oC all day.  The BBC had my next of the woods down as 7.oC.

This is misleading and potentially dangerous in some Weather circumstances. 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 2 Dec - Monday 11 Dec

Cold across the UK on Saturday with a mixture of sunny spells and some wintry showers, these most frequent across coasts in the north and east. Through Sunday and Monday, further wintry showers are likely across some northern areas. Further south, some rain and perhaps hill snow may spread across from the west for a time. Over the remainder of this forecast period, it will likely remain rather cold at first with further wintry showers in places, especially in the east. Some parts of the south and west may become mainly fine and dry for a time. Later in the week there is an increasing chance that milder, more changeable weather will begin to spread in from the west.

Tuesday 12 Dec - Tuesday 26 Dec

Conditions are most likely to be changeable through this period. Wetter and windier than average conditions are slightly more likely than normal, especially in the west and northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above average overall, although this doesn't rule out some spells of cold weather and associated wintry hazards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[damianslaw]

On 26/11/2023 at 13:30, NewEra21 said:

In terms of temps, the BBC are always well off the mark. Usually come the day it’s at least a few degrees colder, they always overplay the temps.

Yes they often overestimate, and also show the absolute max which at this time of year last all of 5 mins. Takes a long time to warm up.

Edited November 27, 2023 by damianslaw