Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 22 Apr - Monday 1 May

More persistent rain has the chance to settle across the northeast through the weekend, with breezier conditions here compared to previous days. Largely dry in the far northwest and southern parts, with more in the way of sunnier spells and lighter winds but still a chance of showers. Following a cool and showery start to next week, high pressure will then try to extend from the northwest during next week. This could lead to drier conditions developing again during late April, though this is somewhat uncertain with a similar likelihood of more unsettled conditions persisting. After a spell of below average temperatures early in this period, temperatures are most likely to return back to around average during the latter part of April.

Tuesday 2 May - Tuesday 16 May

Confidence in the forecast is low through the start of May. In general, there is a greater chance of a settled weather regime, maintaining the likelihood of clearer and drier conditions. However, periods of more changeable and unsettled weather are still possible. Temperatures probably returning closer to average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Monday 24 Apr - Wednesday 3 May

Sunny spells and scattered wintry showers early next week, most frequent in the north and perhaps the east and still with a good deal of dry weather. Probably cloudier in the south and southwest, with some rain at times. Light to moderate winds generally, but perhaps fresh or strong in the north and possibly in the south at times. Cold for many with overnight frost, temperatures nearer average in the south and southwest. Cloudier conditions along with outbreaks of rain across or near the south and southwest will likely make gradual progress northeastwards across the country during late April but at an uncertain rate. This will see temperatures eventually back to around average for the time of year.

Thursday 4 May - Thursday 18 May

A mixture of settled and unsettled spells are expected throughout the period. Most frequent rain more likely in the south at first, but through the period this will move to more western and northwestern areas. There is a lower than usual likelihood of significant windy conditions. Temperatures likely to trend upwards through the period, with above average temperatures more likely than below average temperatures during early and mid-May.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Lauren]

Reading these recent forecasts it's so confusing. Seems everyone is struggling to nail down what's happening because it's been so erratic of late.

It's going to rain but also it might not, it will be warm but also chilly, it may snow but also will be like the Sahara.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 25 Apr - Thursday 4 May

On Tuesday, patchy cloud and sunshine for most with a few showers, wintry in the far northeast and for the Northern Isles. Chance of some thicker cloud with more persistent rain into the southwest later. Light winds again but remaining moderate to strong in the far northeast. Cold for many by day, especially the north with fairly overnight frost. From midweek, outbreaks of rain and milder conditions in the far southwest erratically spreading northeastwards, and some uncertainty as to how quickly this reaches the far north of the UK. The wettest weather, perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, is more likely to be in the west, with some eastern areas perhaps remaining mostly dry. A gradual upward trend in temperatures most likely, from a colder than average start.

Friday 5 May - Friday 19 May

Fairly typical conditions for the time of year expected, with a mixture of settled and unsettled spells. Most frequent rain more likely in the south at first, but tending to focus on the more typical west and northwest with time. Lower than usual likelihood of significant windy spells, especially at first. Above average temperatures probable overall through to mid-May.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 26 Apr - Friday 5 May

Rather cloudy at the start of this period with outbreaks of rain and drizzle spreading from the southwest, though the northwards and eastwards extent of this rain is uncertain. The best of any clear or sunny spells are most likely to be in the northeast of the country, though a few wintry showers could continue in the far northeast. Winds mostly light to moderate but could be locally strong in parts of the southwest. As we move into May, there could be some rain in places at first, most likely in the north. However, we may see a spell of more settled weather developing, with light winds and predominantly dry conditions across the UK. A gradual upward trend in temperatures is likely, from a colder than average start.

Saturday 6 May - Saturday 20 May

Potentially becoming more changeable by the second week of May with a greater chance of rain compared to earlier in the month. Confidence in the forecast is low as we move into the second half of May, with fairly equal chances of fine or more unsettled weather. Temperatures more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 29 Apr - Monday 8 May

Cloud is expected to be patchy leading into this weekend, with low cloud possible over the western hills particularly in the mornings. A few showers may develop throughout Saturday across central and western areas, with the chance of thunder later on across Northern Ireland. Moving into May, weak bands of rain will mostly decay as they progress eastwards, acting as a focus for diurnal afternoon showers that mainly affect the central and east of England. The remaining period brings fairly settled conditions pushing in from the southwest, with plenty of dry and mild weather across the UK. Generally temperatures are near or slightly above average, with the maxima in the high teens in the south of England.

Tuesday 9 May - Tuesday 23 May

Potentially becoming more changeable by the second week of May with a greater chance of rain compared to earlier in the month. Confidence in the forecast is low as we move into the second half of May, with fairly equal chances of fine or more unsettled weather. Temperatures more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Talk about sitting on the fence

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 30 Apr - Tuesday 9 May

On Sunday, a band of rain and patchy cloud should push northeastwards bringing low cloud around many western facing coastlines. Showers will develop during many afternoons; these showers have the potential to turn heavy with some hail and thunder at times across the UK. Some mist and fog are expected overnight. As we move into May, milder and relatively humid conditions will continue to affect much of the UK, with colder conditions hanging on in the far northeast of Scotland. It is likely to turn more unsettled and changeable by the end of this period with higher likelihood of rain especially across central and southern parts. Temperatures becoming close to average for this time of year.

Wednesday 10 May - Wednesday 24 May

Remaining unsettled and changeable for the early part of this period. Confidence in the forecast is low as we move into the second half of May, with fairly equal chances of fine or changeable weather. Lower than usual chances of any significant windy spells, and temperatures are more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Monday 1 May - Wednesday 10 May

On Monday, possibly thicker cloud with more persistent rain across the far north, clearing east through the day. Again, low cloud across many parts at first breaking up to showers, possibly heavy and thundery. The focus may shift to eastern parts with the south and southwest staying fine and dry. Temperatures still mostly above average, but feeling cooler in the far north and northeast. Later, high pressure is expected to lie to the east of the UK. This likely to bring settled conditions at first, with plenty of warm, dry weather. Frontal zones may bring some rain and low cloud especially in the west, but their remnants are more likely to become a focus for showers as they spread across the country. Some of these potentially heavy and thundery.

Thursday 11 May - Thursday 25 May

Remaining unsettled and changeable for the early part of this period. Confidence in the forecast is low as we move into the second half of May, with fairly equal chances of fine or changeable weather. Lower than usual chances of any significant windy spells, and temperatures are more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Polar Maritime]

Good growing weather then.

[damianslaw]

Suggests a trough to the west, heights to the east, UK caught in the middle.. a mixed May. 

[johnholmes]

Met Office chicken up for Yorkshire this morning

No forecast for today but TWO for tonight.

They get worse, poor spelling quite often, there seems to be no checking of output these days.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 4 May - Saturday 13 May

On Thursday, widely settled, dry conditions with clear and sunny periods for most. Some thick cloud and associated outbreaks of rain are more likely in the far north and northeast. Throughout the day there is an increasing risk of showery outbreaks of rain, with a slight chance of thunder, moving into the southwest. Into the weekend, this cloud with a mix of showers and more prolonged rain is expected to spread northeastwards, some of which could be heavy and thundery. For the rest of the period, high pressure to the northeast of the UK will bring drier and cooler conditions further north, whereas low pressure to the southwest means a higher chance of showers and warmer conditions in the south. Temperatures likely around to a little below average.

Sunday 14 May - Sunday 28 May

Confidence is low for this period, with fairly equal chances of fine or changeable weather. However, there is a slightly higher than normal chance of unsettled weather in the south. Winds expected to be generally light. Temperatures are more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 5 May - Sunday 14 May

On Friday, a band of rain will slowly edge northeastwards across the UK, closely followed by brighter conditions with showery outbreaks developing, some of these heavy, perhaps thundery. Far north/northeastern parts staying mostly dry, although feeling much cooler here in stronger winds. Through the weekend, southern parts are more likely to see unsettled conditions with fresh winds, rain and showers, these perhaps heavy and thundery, while the north is likely to remain drier. For the rest of the period, high pressure to the northeast of the UK will bring drier and cooler conditions further north, whereas low pressure to the southwest means a higher chance of showers and warmer conditions in the south. Temperatures likely around to a little below average.

Monday 15 May - Monday 29 May

Confidence is low for this period, with fairly equal chances of fine or changeable weather. However, there is a slightly higher than normal chance of unsettled weather in the south. Winds expected to be generally light. Temperatures are more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 11 May - Saturday 20 May

A mixture of sunny spells and showers for most areas on Thursday and Friday. Showers heavy in places with a risk of hail and thunder. Likely turning cloudier with some more persistent rain into the far northwest. Into the weekend a northwest/southeast spilt is likely to develop. This will see a good deal of fine weather in the south and east with cloudier and sometimes wet weather across the north and west. Spells of rain may sink further south and east with time, but many southeastern areas remaining dry. The north/south split is likely to remain, with drier and sunnier weather in the south, and more unsettled conditions to the north. Possible strong winds at times in the north. Temperatures generally at or above normal for the time of year.

Sunday 21 May - Sunday 4 Jun

Confidence during this period is typically low, but changeable weather appears to be the most likely outcome at this time. Most areas will likely see some spells of unsettled weather, as well as periods of drier and brighter weather. Above average temperatures are slightly more likely than below average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 22 May - Wednesday 31 May

A settled, albeit often rather cloudy start to the week for many with the best chance of sunshine in Wales and southwest England. Occasional rain is likely to occur across parts of norther Britain and Northern Ireland along with possible showers, some potentially heavy, in the east of England. As the week progresses and into the following week, the predominantly settled conditions should continue, with mostly fine and dry weather for many areas, though spells of more unsettled weather are possible in the northwest and perhaps far southeast. Winds generally light, but potentially stronger in the far northwest of Scotland and far southeast of England. Daytime temperatures are expected to be generally close to normal, or slightly above normal, for this time of year.

Thursday 1 Jun - Thursday 15 Jun

Largely fine conditions are expected to continue during this period, particularly for the central and northern parts of the UK. There is an increased risk of rain and showers in the further to the south, especially southeast England, as the period progresses. Temperatures are likely to remain a little above a normal for this time of year; however, the far southeast of England may be closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 24 May - Friday 2 Jun

High pressure and predominantly settled conditions are expected across the majority of the UK through this period. England and Wales is likely to see often large amounts of sunshine, light winds and temperatures around to a little above average for the time of year, following cool nights. Some eastern areas could be plagued by mist or low cloud at times. Scotland and Northern Ireland will most likely be a little more mixed, with cloudier days and some patchy rain in-between the clearer, dry spells, and temperatures nearer average overall. Towards the end of the period, there is an increasing, albeit fairly small chance of outbreaks of rain affecting southern parts, most likely the far south.

Saturday 3 Jun - Saturday 17 Jun

Although largely settled conditions are expected to continue into June, there is a risk of some periods of unsettled weather in the south of the UK, with perhaps some thundery showers or longer spells of rain at times. Further north it is more likely to stay drier for longer. Temperatures more likely than normal to stay above average across most areas, away from the east coast where the potential for stronger onshore winds would keep things cooler.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Monday 29 May - Wednesday 7 Jun

Predominantly fine and settled conditions for many areas to start, though probably feeling rather cool in parts of the north and east, especially in areas with a breeze off the sea. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather into early June, meaning plenty more dry weather for much of the country. A possibility of weak frontal systems bringing some patchy rain to the far north and, with time, an increased chance of showers, perhaps thundery, moving north into, or developing over southern areas. Overall, temperatures remaining above average, though cooler in some coastal locations where onshore breezes develop. Winds will generally be light, but coastal areas in the south, as well as far north, may experience stronger winds at times.

Thursday 8 Jun - Thursday 22 Jun

Through this period there is an increasing likelihood that unsettled conditions will slowly begin to extend northward across the UK from the south, with some heavy, thundery showers and longer spells of rain possible. The northwest of the UK is likely to experience the driest conditions. Winds are expected to be light, but with stronger sea breezes in some coastal areas at times. Temperatures are most likely to be above average overall, though eastern coastal areas may feel cooler, with a greater chance of onshore winds here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[ANYWEATHER]

On 29/04/2023 at 21:30, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 4 May - Saturday 13 May

On Thursday, widely settled, dry conditions with clear and sunny periods for most. Some thick cloud and associated outbreaks of rain are more likely in the far north and northeast. Throughout the day there is an increasing risk of showery outbreaks of rain, with a slight chance of thunder, moving into the southwest. Into the weekend, this cloud with a mix of showers and more prolonged rain is expected to spread northeastwards, some of which could be heavy and thundery. For the rest of the period, high pressure to the northeast of the UK will bring drier and cooler conditions further north, whereas low pressure to the southwest means a higher chance of showers and warmer conditions in the south. Temperatures likely around to a little below average.

Sunday 14 May - Sunday 28 May

Confidence is low for this period, with fairly equal chances of fine or changeable weather. However, there is a slightly higher than normal chance of unsettled weather in the south. Winds expected to be generally light. Temperatures are more likely to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Well that prediction was wrong

[Don]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well that prediction was wrong

Yeah but it was with low confidence innit?! 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 10 Jun - Monday 19 Jun

To begin the period, generally largely dry, but with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible towards the south and southwest, potentially spreading further northeast. It will likely remain cloudy at times along northern and eastern coasts, cloud occasionally moving inland, mainly overnight. Winds mostly light or moderate with the potentially for some slightly stronger winds near southern coasts. Temperature generally warm away from cooler eastern coastal counties. Perhaps very warm for some, especially in the south. Later in the period uncertainty increases, however the risk of showers or thunderstorms continues, mainly across southern areas of the UK, with northern areas more likely to remain drier. The easterly breeze may ease at times, allowing eastern counties to see a recovery in temperatures. Temperatures generally near to above average.

Tuesday 20 Jun - Tuesday 4 Jul

High pressure is likely to become less dominant with time, especially in the south with low pressure likely to approach from the near Continent. Northern areas may hang on to the largely dry conditions, but southern areas will see an increased risk of occasional heavy rain or thunderstorms from time to time. Any changes will be slow though, and there will still be plenty of dry and warm, sunny weather between any rain or thunderstorms, with temperatures widely above average, perhaps significantly so.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[damianslaw]

Terribly worded met office longer range. It goes out to 5 July, yet it talks about weather through mid July. Its also a massive flip, talk of high to north, now replaced with high to south west.  

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Terribly worded met office longer range. It goes out to 5 July, yet it talks about weather through mid July. Its also a massive flip, talk of high to north, now replaced with high to south west.  

Are the Met Office longer range forecasts getting worse with the way they're worded as it seems that way to me?  However, a very warm or hot outlook being seen.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

On 06/06/2023 at 22:59, Don said:

Are the Met Office longer range forecasts getting worse with the way they're worded as it seems that way to me?  However, a very warm or hot outlook being seen.

In recent months they have been terrible. I used to rate them but not anymore, too often they contradict themselves, the shorter term doesn't dovetail with the longer term, often cover all eventualities. 

[damianslaw]

Why is BBC 21.55 forecast a repeat of mid afternoon one? This happened yesterday as well.