Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Speedbird]

From the Met Office

[snowblind]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

From the Met Office

Not a great update. I particularly don't like this bit

"During the later part of the period confidence decreases significantly, however there is a risk of some milder and wetter weather pushing into the south from the Atlantic, meaning spells of rain will become more likely across the country. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up through the period."

Although on the upside confidence is low and there is a chance of some snow in the north and east before then.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 6 Mar - Wednesday 15 Mar

This period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas. This will most likely result in wintry showers across northern and eastern areas, these turning to more organised bands of snow at times. Under this regime, many other areas are likely to remain dry with some sunshine, the best of this across inland areas and in the south and west of the UK. During the later part of the period confidence decreases significantly, however there is a risk of some milder and wetter weather pushing into the south from the Atlantic, meaning spells of rain will become more likely across the country. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up through the period.

Thursday 16 Mar - Thursday 30 Mar

Confidence remains very low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional late season wintry showers, while with rain and strong winds are likely in the south. These milder conditions may extend north at times, but it's likely that the cold weather will then extend south to all parts through late March, bringing drier conditions to many western regions. Temperatures overall will likely be below normal, but milder in the south through the middle of March and perhaps beyond.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Rain All Night]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:56 on Thu 2 Mar 2023

There is at least a 60% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Wednesday 08 Mar across England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High pressure is expected to become displaced towards Greenland with a cold north to north-easterly airflow becoming established across the whole of the UK during next week. There is the potential for some wintry hazards from frequent snow showers or prolonged spells of snow in places, with low pressure near the North Sea, with impacts more likely across windward coasts in the north and east. Atlantic frontal systems may push into the south and southwest at times, more likely from mid-week, which may bring the threat of disruptive snow - low confidence at this stage.

Regional comments for all regions of England except London/SE/SW:

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be widely below average, both by day and night, with widespread frosts overnight. A north to north-easterly airflow is likely to bring frequent snow and hail showers. Ice an additional hazard throughout.

Regional comments for London/SE/SW:

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Wednesday, with some wintry showers likely at times, although less frequent than elsewhere. Temperatures widely below average, especially by night, with widespread frost.

Edited March 2, 2023 by RainAllNight

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 10:56 on Thu 2 Mar 2023

There is at least a 60% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Wednesday 08 Mar across England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High pressure is expected to become displaced towards Greenland with a cold north to north-easterly airflow becoming established across the whole of the UK during next week. There is the potential for some wintry hazards from frequent snow showers or prolonged spells of snow in places, with low pressure near the North Sea, with impacts more likely across windward coasts in the north and east. Atlantic frontal systems may push into the south and southwest at times, more likely from mid-week, which may bring the threat of disruptive snow - low confidence at this stage.

Regional comments for all regions except London/SE/SW:

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be widely below average, both by day and night, with widespread frosts overnight. A north to north-easterly airflow is likely to bring frequent snow and hail showers. Ice an additional hazard throughout.

Regional comments for London/SE/SW:

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Wednesday, with some wintry showers likely at times, although less frequent than elsewhere. Temperatures widely below average, especially by night, with widespread frost.

Is Scotland not included in these? How can there be a severe cold alert for England but not the colder country to the North?

[Rain All Night]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is Scotland not included in these? How can there be a severe cold alert for England but not the colder country to the North?

I've just read the blurb which says the cold weather alert system is for England only.

Edited March 2, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Bricriu]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I've just read the blurb which says the cold weather alert system is for England only.

The Scots are well used to it. They don't need a warning! So it would seem based off the latest update there could be a North  to South split later on in March. That probably means milder weather in most of Ireland too, with the North of England and Scotland staying cold. Although it's  interesting they talk of colder weather likely heading south in late March. If that is the case, I hope it's extremely cold air. So this cold period goes out with gutso. Then Spring can commence! 

[mountain shadow]

37 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I've just read the blurb which says the cold weather alert system is for England only.

Cheers

26 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

The Scots are well used to it. They don't need a warning! So it would seem based off the latest update there could be a North  to South split later on in March. That probably means milder weather in most of Ireland too, with the North of England and Scotland staying cold. Although it's  interesting they talk of colder weather likely heading south in late March. If that is the case, I hope it's extremely cold air. So this cold period goes out with gutso. Then Spring can commence! 

Scotland is a big place and the weather in the Scottish Borders will be exactly the same as the English Border counties.

 

[KTtom]

Not a wonderful Met update unless you are in the north or east. 

 

Quote

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 7 Mar - Thursday 16 Mar

This period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. This will most likely result in wintry showers, these turning to more organised bands of snow at times in the east. Under this regime, some areas are likely to remain drier with some sunshine, the best of this across inland areas and in the south and west of the UK. During the later part of the period confidence decreases significantly, however there is a risk of some milder and wetter weather pushing into the south from the Atlantic at times, which could bring periods of snow as they push north. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up through the period.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 2 Mar 2023

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 7 Mar - Thursday 16 Mar

This period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. This will most likely result in wintry showers, these turning to more organised bands of snow at times in the east. Under this regime, some areas are likely to remain drier with some sunshine, the best of this across inland areas and in the south and west of the UK. During the later part of the period confidence decreases significantly, however there is a risk of some milder and wetter weather pushing into the south from the Atlantic at times, which could bring periods of snow as they push north. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up through the period.

Friday 17 Mar - Friday 31 Mar

Confidence remains very low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional late season wintry showers, while with rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a risk of snow at times. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's likely that the cold weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing drier conditions to some southern regions. Temperatures overall will likely be below normal, but milder in the south through the middle of March and perhaps beyond.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

turning to more organised bands of snow at times in the east

I'll take that, Gav! 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Bricriu said:

The Scots are well used to it. They don't need a warning! So it would seem based off the latest update there could be a North  to South split later on in March. That probably means milder weather in most of Ireland too, with the North of England and Scotland staying cold. Although it's  interesting they talk of colder weather likely heading south in late March. If that is the case, I hope it's extremely cold air. So this cold period goes out with gutso. Then Spring can commence! 

Hopefully the cold will retreat in time for Easter, good job its not an early one this year!

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the Week Ahead

• Cold enough for snow
• Uncertainty in detail
• Often windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64827803

 

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC weather for the Week Ahead

• Cold enough for snow
• Uncertainty in detail
• Often windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64827803

 

Blinding …that’s us coldies sorted

[Rain All Night]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:47 on Fri 3 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

There is an increased confidence that a period of very cold weather will develop across the country from early next week, as a north or northeasterly airflow becomes established across the UK. The highest confidence is for northern parts where cold weather is expected to develop from early on Monday, progressing southwards through the day. Below average temperatures are expected throughout, bringing a widespread frost and wintry showers, these frequent along exposed windward coasts along with a risk of ice hazards. There is also a risk of more prolonged snow, perhaps due to rain pushing into the west from around midweek, although this is currently considered to be low confidence. This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended next week.

North (90% risk) & East (70% risk) England:

Increased confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be widely below average, both by day and night, with widespread frosts overnight. A north to northeasterly airflow is likely to bring frequent snow and hail showers. Ice an additional hazard throughout.

West Midlands (70% risk):

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be widely below average, both by day and night, with widespread frosts overnight. A north to northeasterly airflow is likely to bring isolated snow and hail showers. Ice an additional hazard throughout.

South England (60% risk):

Increasing confidence for a cold spell of weather Monday to Thursday, with some wintry showers likely at times, although less frequent than elsewhere. Temperatures widely below average, especially by night, with widespread frost.

Edited March 3, 2023 by RainAllNight

[winterof79]

Wednesday 8 Mar - Friday 17 Mar

The start of this period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. This will most likely result in wintry showers, these turning more organised at times in the north and east. Under this regime, some areas are likely to remain drier with some sunshine, the best of this across inland areas and in the south and west of the UK. From the second half of next week onwards, milder conditions  seem likely to push erratically north, with spells of rain and snow likely  at times - which could be disruptive in places, at least at first. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up later.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Mar 2023

[alexisj9]

On 27/02/2023 at 16:44, bluearmy said:

In the two week period post march 14th

Some wintry episodes may be disruptive due to the potential combination of snow and strong winds.

is that next week? 

Week after.

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Week after.

Saturday 18 Mar - Saturday 1 Apr

Confidence remains very low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. Temperatures will likely fluctuate between cold and mild, north to south, but will probably average out around normal.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 3 Mar 2023

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Cold next week then milder in the south

Saturday 4 March to – Sunday 12 March

Cold and wintry. Possibly milder at the weekend

Monday 13 March to – Sunday 19 March

Mild in the south, chilly in the north

Monday 20 March to – Sunday 2 April

A similar pattern could linger

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 9 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

Confidence remains low throughout this period. On Thursday, a band of cloud and rain is expected to make some progress northeastwards from the southwest, potentially bringing some disruptive snowfall to parts of central and southern England and Wales. In the north, drier conditions are more likely, although some coastal snow showers remain possible. Into the weekend, the most likely scenario is for most areas to remain colder than average, with occasional wintry showers possible in the north, and more persistent rain or snow further south. Later, a transition to milder conditions is expected, bringing some spells of rain and strong winds, although periods of snow remain possible, particularly in the far north. Temperatures generally below average, but may gradually turn milder into the end of the period.

Sunday 19 Mar - Sunday 2 Apr

Confidence remains very low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. Temperatures will likely fluctuate between cold and mild, north to south, but will probably average out around normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Confident

• Much colder
• Some snow

Less confident

• Extent of snowfall
• How long the cold lasts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64849804

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 10 Mar - Sunday 19 Mar

Confidence remains low throughout this period. On Friday, very cold conditions are expected across the far north, accompanied by snow showers, although some sunny spells are possible away from any showers. Elsewhere, milder, cloudier conditions are likely, with outbreaks of rain and some stronger winds possible. There is a small chance of more disruptive snowfall, particularly over hills. Into the weekend, milder conditions are expected to spread northeastwards, bringing rain and stronger winds, as well as some snow along the leading edge. Towards the end of the period, this transition is expected to continue, bringing some more unsettled conditions. Periods of snow remain possible, particularly in the far north. Temperatures generally below average, but may gradually turn milder into the end of the period.

Monday 20 Mar - Monday 3 Apr

Confidence remains very low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. Temperatures will likely fluctuate between cold and mild, north to south, but will probably average out around normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Early week

• Cold northerly blast
• Snow and ice for some

Late week

• Chance of widespread rain/snow
• Low confidence on details

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64849807

[Rain All Night]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:34 on Mon 6 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England.

General Situation: Very cold weather is expected across most of England this week, with widespread frosts overnight and temperatures struggling to rise above freezing in some places during the day. A band of rain and hill snow will move southwards during Monday, perhaps bringing some snow to low levels for a time overnight into Tuesday for central, eastern and south-eastern England. To the north of this band frequent snow showers will affect northeast England during Monday and Tuesday, with icy stretches developing. Another spell of rain, sleet and snow is likely for southern parts of England during Wednesday, then central and northern England are at risk of seeing periods of snow on Thursday and Friday.

Edited March 6, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Stuie]

15 hours ago, Stuie said:

From what I have seen, the met warning may be modified tomorrow. Whether overnight and 6z`s change the extent of the LP reach for Monday night, has to be altered.

I see the update did happen and much more of an area covered.