Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[chilly milly]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Don't recall much cold weather late Feb 08, brief incursions of polar maritime air, the March was topsy turvy with some cold northerly flows, and the notable Easter snowfalls.. but quite atlantic driven. Not sure if there was a SSW.

Had snow here late in season 2018. From 26th Feb to 3rd Mar. Not sure what brought that here though.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 21 Feb - Thursday 2 Mar

Tuesday looks to be cloudy with bands of rain moving eastwards across many parts, largely heaviest and most persistent in the north, perhaps wintry over Scottish hills and patchier to the south. Brighter spells more likely for central parts, with showers expected to follow in the northwest later. For the first half of the period, western high pressure will dominate with lower pressure expected to the east and south. More changeable conditions are likely for southeastern areas with showers or spells of rain possible at times, while remaining settled to the west, with some overnight mist and fog. High pressure is more likely to dominate across the UK towards March, likely bringing more settled conditions. Temperatures shall be nearer normal, remaining mild with locally cold nights, particularly in the south.

Friday 3 Mar - Friday 17 Mar

Through early March, high pressure will likely dominate across the UK with any more unsettled weather likely confining to the far north or northwest. Generally drier more settled conditions are expected to continue, with occasional spells of unsettled weather possible at times, especially in the south later into the period. Colder nights are likely in places throughout. Temperatures will likely be around or slightly above average for the whole period, with perhaps colder conditions relative to average more likely towards mid-March. There remains a small but increasing probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Don]

22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Don't recall much cold weather late Feb 08, brief incursions of polar maritime air, the March was topsy turvy with some cold northerly flows, and the notable Easter snowfalls.. but quite atlantic driven. Not sure if there was a SSW.

Funnily enough, Gavin Partridge was talking about this on his live stream last night and made the comparison between the February 2008 SSW and this one.  They are remarkably similar, so as I said last night, we could be looking at a similar March to 2008?  However, with an additional 15 years of climate change, that might be the best we can hope for perhaps?

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Funnily enough, Gavin Partridge was talking about this on his live stream last night and made the comparison between the February 2008 SSW and this one.  They are remarkably similar, so as I said last night, we could be looking at a similar March to 2008?  However, with an additional 15 years of climate change, that might be the best we can hope for perhaps?

What happened in March 2008 

[Don]

Just now, lassie23 said:

What happened in March 2008 

March 2008 wasn't overly cold overall, but did feature some cold northerlies during the second half of the month and into April.  A number of places had a White Easter that year, too!

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

March 2008 wasn't overly cold overall, but did feature some cold northerlies during the second half of the month and into April.  A number of places had a White Easter that year, too!

I'll take that lol

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 22 Feb - Friday 3 Mar

On Wednesday, any rain will clear from the southeast in the morning. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with strong winds and a risk of gales are expected in the west and north. Temperatures are likely colder than of late for most, with chilly conditions at times. For the rest of the period, high pressure is likely to dominate for most, perhaps with changeable weather conditions in the north and west at times. As a result, wintry showers and spells of rain are expected in the north, with colder spells probable in the north and northeast and overnight frost along windward coasts. Dry and clear conditions are likely in the south, with light rain at times. Temperatures generally will be near normal, but colder overnight.

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

During this period, high pressure systems are expected to dominate across the UK, perhaps bringing unsettled weather conditions to the far north and northwest in the first week of March. For the rest of the period, Atlantic frontal systems are expected to move eastward, with low-pressure systems probable in the south. Temperatures overall will be near average, but possibly colder overnight in places throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 22 Feb - Friday 3 Mar

On Wednesday, any rain will clear from the southeast in the morning. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with strong winds and a risk of gales are expected in the west and north. Temperatures are likely colder than of late for most, with chilly conditions at times. For the rest of the period, high pressure is likely to dominate for most, perhaps with changeable weather conditions in the north and west at times. As a result, wintry showers and spells of rain are expected in the north, with colder spells probable in the north and northeast and overnight frost along windward coasts. Dry and clear conditions are likely in the south, with light rain at times. Temperatures generally will be near normal, but colder overnight.

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

During this period, high pressure systems are expected to dominate across the UK, perhaps bringing unsettled weather conditions to the far north and northwest in the first week of March. For the rest of the period, Atlantic frontal systems are expected to move eastward, with low-pressure systems probable in the south. Temperatures overall will be near average, but possibly colder overnight in places throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Bricriu]

Well that's a really crappy update. It look like Glosea doesn't see this SSW delivering for us. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Bricriu

[Bristawl Si]

Cold rain then for down here, in March.

[LRD]

Really good update from Met Office for those who do not want to see a cold spring

However, the way the extended update is worded, although a significant downgrade for cold, things could still change to a colder and wintry outlook nearer the time. If they're seeing low pressures tracking south it could mean that they see lows stalling to our SW which would just pump warm air (and possibly lots of rain for the south) towards the UK. But if the low pressures do track into central Europe the winds would soon turn into a cold direction

So, if you're hoping for a warm/mild/pleasant spring (from mid-March onwards, I certainly am) I wouldn't be celebrating just yet

Or it could be that we get cold pressure patterns but there just won't be deep cold over Europe to tap into. Perhaps a more SE'ly element to the wind direction rather than E'ly or NE'ly

I also suspect what might happen over the weekend/into next week is the short-term prospects for cold might be upgraded by the Met Office. Short-term gain for long-term pain for those of a cold persuasion, maybe? 

Edited February 17, 2023 by LRD

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

Well that's a really crappy update. It look like Glosea doesn't see this SSW delivering for us. 

Yeah that's a real kick in the teeth. Especially after yesterday's update which seemed more encouraging.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Bricriu said:

Well that's a really crappy update. It look like Glosea doesn't see this SSW delivering for us. 

 

3 hours ago, LRD said:

Really good update from Met Office for those who do not want to see a cold spring

However, the way the extended update is worded, although a significant downgrade for cold, things could still change to a colder and wintry outlook nearer the time. If they're seeing low pressures tracking south it could mean that they see lows stalling to our SW which would just pump warm air (and possibly lots of rain for the south) towards the UK. But if the low pressures do track into central Europe the winds would soon turn into a cold direction

So, if you're hoping for a warm/mild/pleasant spring (from mid-March onwards, I certainly am) I wouldn't be celebrating just yet

Or it could be that we get cold pressure patterns but there just won't be deep cold over Europe to tap into. Perhaps a more SE'ly element to the wind direction rather than E'ly or NE'ly

I also suspect what might happen over the weekend/into next week is the short-term prospects for cold might be upgraded by the Met Office. Short-term gain for long-term pain for those of a cold persuasion, maybe? 

 

3 hours ago, snowblind said:

Yeah that's a real kick in the teeth. Especially after yesterday's update which seemed more encouraging.

Hmm, it would seem they have changed their mind!!??  Doesn't actually mention wintry conditions and nothing particularly exceptional, but the potential is there.... 

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

High pressure probably continuing dominant across the UK through the first week of March, any more unsettled weather probably across the far north or northwest, with a low likelihood for strong easterly winds in the south. Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected with the high likely to move further in the north and lower pressure developing to the South. Occasional Atlantic fronts progressing eastwards across the UK, are not ruled out, but less likely. Temperatures will most likely start off around average, but there is increasing likelihood of colder conditions (relative to average). Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Feb 2023

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Don

[lassie23]

I think we can take from this update that they don't have a scooby

[Don]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

I think we can take from this update that they don't have a scooby

It's rather odd why they changed the forecast significantly so quick?!

[Bricriu]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

 

 

Hmm, it would seem they have changed their mind!!??  Doesn't actually mention wintry conditions and nothing particularly exceptional, but the potential is there.... 

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

High pressure probably continuing dominant across the UK through the first week of March, any more unsettled weather probably across the far north or northwest, with a low likelihood for strong easterly winds in the south. Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected with the high likely to move further in the north and lower pressure developing to the South. Occasional Atlantic fronts progressing eastwards across the UK, are not ruled out, but less likely. Temperatures will most likely start off around average, but there is increasing likelihood of colder conditions (relative to average). Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Feb 2023

 

Haha that did not last long. I wonder did they read this thread then decided to change it for the better. But that update is hard to take seriously now 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Bricriu

[Bristawl Si]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

It's rather odd why they changed the forecast significantly so quick?!

Because it indicates that the SSW wont have much of an effect for our little set of islands, maybe?

[damianslaw]

48 minutes ago, Don said:

It's rather odd why they changed the forecast significantly so quick?!

If you follow the met updates each day, you'll note how often they quickly ditch one thing for something completely different. I noted how they mentioned snow out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago, next day it was gone. 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

If you follow the met updates each day, you'll note how often they quickly ditch one thing for something completely different. I noted how they mentioned snow out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago, next day it was gone. 

Yes, I've noticed they change bits here and there on a day to day basis i.e. the snow you mentioned a few weeks back, but they don't often drastically change the outlook within an hour or two?!!  Look at the initial update Summer Sun posted today.

21 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Because it indicates that the SSW wont have much of an effect for our little set of islands, maybe?

I was thinking quite the opposite with their second update this afternoon?!  However, the first update gave the impression the SSW may come to nothing.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I've noticed they change bits here and there on a day to day basis i.e. the snow you mentioned a few weeks back, but they don't often drastically change the outlook within an hour or two?!!  Look at the initial update Summer Sun posted today.

I was thinking quite the opposite with their second update this afternoon?!  However, the first update gave the impression the SSW may come to nothing.

It still mentions colder conditions in the north and north east and some wintry showers in the north - its odd how the trend to this then flips longer range output, the two do not coalesce.. also low pressure systems further south, would suggest colder in the north at least and there is certainly scope here for change in wording back to cold quickly.

Edited February 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Don said:

 

 

Hmm, it would seem they have changed their mind!!??  Doesn't actually mention wintry conditions and nothing particularly exceptional, but the potential is there.... 

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

High pressure probably continuing dominant across the UK through the first week of March, any more unsettled weather probably across the far north or northwest, with a low likelihood for strong easterly winds in the south. Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected with the high likely to move further in the north and lower pressure developing to the South. Occasional Atlantic fronts progressing eastwards across the UK, are not ruled out, but less likely. Temperatures will most likely start off around average, but there is increasing likelihood of colder conditions (relative to average). Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Feb 2023

 

Er, wow. I've been looking at these Met Office updates for a lot longer than I have been looking at the model outputs, and I'm not sure I've ever seen them post an outlook in the afternoon and then replace it with a different outlook the same evening?!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It still mentions colder conditions in the north and north east and some wintry showers in the north - its odd how the trend to this then flips longer range output, the two do not coalesce.. also low pressure systems further south, would suggest colder in the north at least and there is certainly scope here for change in wording back to cold quickly.

It's their Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar period I'm referring to.

Their initial update today;

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

During this period, high pressure systems are expected to dominate across the UK, perhaps bringing unsettled weather conditions to the far north and northwest in the first week of March. For the rest of the period, Atlantic frontal systems are expected to move eastward, with low-pressure systems probable in the south. Temperatures overall will be near average, but possibly colder overnight in places throughout the period.

Updated forecast

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

High pressure probably continuing dominant across the UK through the first week of March, any more unsettled weather probably across the far north or northwest, with a low likelihood for strong easterly winds in the south. Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected with the high likely to move further in the north and lower pressure developing to the South. Occasional Atlantic fronts progressing eastwards across the UK, are not ruled out, but less likely. Temperatures will most likely start off around average, but there is increasing likelihood of colder conditions (relative to average). Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 17 Feb 2023

 

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Er, wow. I've been looking at these Met Office updates for a lot longer than I have been looking at the model outputs, and I'm not sure I've ever seen them post an outlook in the afternoon and then replace it with a different outlook the same evening?!

Exactly, that was my point all along!

[Rain All Night]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected

Do they normally use words like "blocked" in these forecasts for the general public? 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Do they normally use words like "blocked" in these forecasts for the general public? 

Yes .

[Buzz]

11 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I think we can take from this update that they don't have a scooby

Indeed. To be honest I usually find that these met office forecasts are nonsense - they are regularly 'adjusted' and not worth taking much notice of unless it's for an obvious settled or unsettled spell.