Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[johncam]

Latest update just the same a few frosts for most and then back to mild damp muck away from SE ,what a crap climate we have especially up here at least southerners usually get some decent summer weather 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 19 Jan - Saturday 28 Jan

Wintry showers are expected along parts of the east coast on Thursday. Across the rest of the UK, it will be dry with some sunshine for a time. However, cloud will increase later as outbreaks of rain, possibly preceded by a spell of snow, spread from the west. It will be cold at first with a widespread frost, but will turn milder from the west later. Through the rest of this period, changeable and occasionally unsettled weather is likely across the UK. The most unsettled conditions will probably be in the west and northwest, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds. The southeast and east is likely to be more settled, with less rainfall and lighter winds. Temperatures are expected to be near normal or slightly above.

Sunday 29 Jan - Sunday 12 Feb

As we move into February a continuation of changeable weather is most likely. The wettest and windiest conditions will likely be in the north and west, whilst the southeast and east will probably be drier and more settled. Temperatures are expected to be mostly around average or slightly above, although some brief colder spells could still develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

A wintry start then milder. Drier later

Saturday 14 January to – Sunday 22 January

Cold and wintry. Milder late week

Sunday 29 January to – Sunday 5 February

Drier and calmer

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 19 February

Changeable. Colder risk mid-February

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Stuart]

Friday 20 Jan - Sunday 29 Jan

On Friday, further outbreaks of rain, although this weakening as it pushes east, will bring a chance of some snow across central and northern areas, mainly high ground. Further west, brighter conditions are likely, although with the occasional shower pushing into some coastal areas. Over the weekend, and indeed the rest of the period, unsettled conditions are likely to persist. The most unsettled conditions are expected in the north and west with a mixture of strong winds and spells of rain or showers at times. Southern and eastern areas will likely remain drier and more settled, although there may be the occasional spell of rain. Temperatures are expected to be mild in northern and western areas, but close to average or perhaps cold in more southern and eastern areas.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 15 Jan 2023

 

UK weather - Met Office

[johncam]

Dreadful outlook 

[mountain shadow]

Bring on the SSW for late February. 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Dreadful outlook 

For Scotland! we don't all live there South East England looks cold following a cold week with a chance of snow.. 

[LightningLover]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

For Scotland! we don't all live there South East England looks cold following a cold week with a chance of snow.. 

I'm from the SE, and I must confess to being kind of uninspired by the aforementioned monthly outlook... Just sounds like inversion type cold to me (4-7c by day, below freezing by night). Better than 13c and rain though!

[Summer Sun]

Friday 20 Jan - Sunday 29 Jan

On Friday, further outbreaks of rain, although this weakening as it pushes east, will bring a chance of some snow across central and northern areas, mainly high ground. Further west, brighter conditions are likely, although with the occasional shower pushing into some coastal areas. Over the weekend, and indeed the rest of the period, unsettled conditions are likely to persist. The most unsettled conditions are expected in the north and west with a mixture of strong winds and spells of rain or showers at times. Southern and eastern areas will likely remain drier and more settled, although there may be the occasional spell of rain. Temperatures are expected to be mild in northern and western areas, but close to average or perhaps cold in more southern and eastern areas.

Monday 30 Jan - Monday 13 Feb

As we move into February, the most likely scenario is a continuation of changeable conditions, although confidence is low. The wettest and windiest conditions will likely be in the north and west, whilst the southeast and east will probably be drier and more settled. Temperatures are expected to be mostly around average or slightly above, although some brief colder spells could develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Rain All Night]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:53 on Mon 16 Jan 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 0900 on Monday 16 Jan and 0900 on Friday 20 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Cold air has spread south across much of the country overnight Sunday into Monday. These conditions persisting through the week across most areas, bringing widespread frost and with daytime temperatures struggling to recover above freezing. Brisk winds, along with spells of wintry showers are also possible, with icy conditions potentially developing. These mostly likely where the brisk north to northwesterly winds bring coastal showers inland. There is lower confidence in the longevity of the cold conditions across the southwest, with temperatures potentially recovering later in the week. Confidence is also low with the return of any milder conditions from the west into the weekend. This warning will be updated later this week as confidence increases in these details.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 21 Jan - Monday 30 Jan

Over the weekend, a northwest-southeast split is likely to bring cloud and outbreaks of rain across western parts, while the southeast remains dry and bright with light winds. The strongest winds are likely to be felt across the northwest, where wintry conditions are possible. Temperatures near normal in the northwest, but rather cold or cold in the southeast. Into the end of January, changeable conditions are likely to persist with the most unsettled conditions in the north and west with a combination of strong winds and rain or showers at times. Meanwhile, southern and eastern parts are expected to remain drier and more settled, although occasional rain is possible. Temperatures expected to be around average in the north and west, perhaps slightly below average in the south and east.

Tuesday 31 Jan - Tuesday 14 Feb

Moving into February, confidence is low, but the most likely scenario is a continuation of changeable conditions. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be confined to the west and northwest, while the southeast is expected to be drier and brighter. Temperatures likely to be overall slightly above average, although the occasional colder spell could develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Rain All Night]

I'm going to post the London & South East regional update as I don't think I've seen the phrase "Very cold" so many times in one update before!

[KTtom]

Very Poor Update today in the medium timeframe...certainly not representative of model output... 

[Methuselah]

Just now, KTtom said:

Very Poor Update today in the medium timeframe...certainly not representative of model output... 

That may well be so, but the weather doesn't flip-flop... Only manmade virtual models do that?

[Don]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Very Poor Update today in the medium timeframe...certainly not representative of model output... 

Yes a mediocre update today, but could look different tomorrow!

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 22 Jan - Tuesday 31 Jan

On Sunday, cloud is likely to be widespread with outbreaks of rain and occasional drizzle, however the far southeast could remain dry and bright. In the northwest, winds are likely to be strongest with a risk of coastal gales, while the south is expected to see lighter winds. Temperatures mild in the northwest but likely around average in the southeast. Later in the period, changeable conditions are likely to persist. Cloud is expected to remain in the northwest with outbreaks of rain continuing under unsettled conditions. The southeast is likely to be mostly dry, but showers and rain remain possible. Winds expected to be strongest in the west and northwest. Temperatures near average, although locally mild in the northwest. Occasional colder spells possible in the southeast under clear skies.

Wednesday 1 Feb - Wednesday 15 Feb

The start of February is likely to see a continuation of more settled conditions, with unsettled weather largely confined to the northwest while the southeast could see some drier and brighter spells. This could result in some fog or freezing fog, particularly for the south and east under clear skies. Into the middle of February, unsettled conditions could become more widespread, bringing the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds across the country. Temperatures likely to be around or slightly above average, with any colder spells being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 22 Jan - Tuesday 31 Jan

On Sunday, cloud is likely to be widespread with outbreaks of rain and occasional drizzle, however the far southeast could remain dry and bright. In the northwest, winds are likely to be strongest with a risk of coastal gales, while the south is expected to see lighter winds. Temperatures mild in the northwest but likely around average in the southeast. Later in the period, changeable conditions are likely to persist. Cloud is expected to remain in the northwest with outbreaks of rain continuing under unsettled conditions. The southeast is likely to be mostly dry, but showers and rain remain possible. Winds expected to be strongest in the west and northwest. Temperatures near average, although locally mild in the northwest. Occasional colder spells possible in the southeast under clear skies.

Wednesday 1 Feb - Wednesday 15 Feb

The start of February is likely to see a continuation of more settled conditions, with unsettled weather largely confined to the northwest while the southeast could see some drier and brighter spells. This could result in some fog or freezing fog, particularly for the south and east under clear skies. Into the middle of February, unsettled conditions could become more widespread, bringing the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds across the country. Temperatures likely to be around or slightly above average, with any colder spells being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Little sign of any real interest from today's updates, but subject to change of course!

[LRD]

That says to me there will be a high hanging around for some time giving a chance for people to dry out. And then more rain by mid-Feb

Zzzzzzzzz

[johncam]

34 minutes ago, LRD said:

That says to me there will be a high hanging around for some time giving a chance for people to dry out. And then more rain by mid-Feb

Zzzzzzzzz

Yep if anything worse than yesterday's update , eating away at heart of winter , can see Feb being another mild month especially further north you are, hopefully get some brighter weather thrown in  

[Don]

40 minutes ago, LRD said:

That says to me there will be a high hanging around for some time giving a chance for people to dry out. And then more rain by mid-Feb

Zzzzzzzzz

What concerns me most about today's extended update is they have dropped the 'low confidence' comment, suggesting confidence has increased further out?

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Mainly dry and settled
• Often cloudy
• Light winds
• Milder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64297333

 

[Rain All Night]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Issued at: 09:05 on Wed 18 Jan 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 0900 on Wednesday 18 Jan and 0900 on Monday 23 Jan in parts of England.

Cold air continues to affect the country and is expected to remain through the rest of the working week and much of, if not all the way through the weekend. This brings widespread overnight frosts with some freezing fog and daytime temperatures struggling to recover much above freezing, especially in the north. Brisk winds, along with spells of wintry showers are also possible, mainly until Friday, with icy conditions developing as a result. These mostly likely where the brisk north to northwesterly winds bring coastal showers inland. As previously discussed, there remains uncertainty as to the longevity of the cold conditions across the west, with temperatures potentially recovering over the weekend. This a result of a slow-moving frontal system bringing milder conditions, though this could stall to retain the colder conditions, especially in the east into next week.

Most of the region-specific comments read: Cold weather expected to continue with widespread overnight frosts and daytime temperatures just above freezing. Some icy conditions possible with the risk of wintry showers, mainly until Friday. Perhaps turning a little less cold late in the weekend, but low confidence.

Edited January 18, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Frigid]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert

Issued at: 09:05 on Wed 18 Jan 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 0900 on Wednesday 18 Jan and 0900 on Monday 23 Jan in parts of England.

Cold air continues to affect the country and is expected to remain through the rest of the working week and much of, if not all the way through the weekend. This brings widespread overnight frosts with some freezing fog and daytime temperatures struggling to recover much above freezing, especially in the north. Brisk winds, along with spells of wintry showers are also possible, mainly until Friday, with icy conditions developing as a result. These mostly likely where the brisk north to northwesterly winds bring coastal showers inland. As previously discussed, there remains uncertainty as to the longevity of the cold conditions across the west, with temperatures potentially recovering over the weekend. This a result of a slow-moving frontal system bringing milder conditions, though this could stall to retain the colder conditions, especially in the east into next week.

Most of the region-specific comments read: Cold weather expected to continue with widespread overnight frosts and daytime temperatures just above freezing. Some icy conditions possible with the risk of wintry showers, mainly until Friday. Perhaps turning a little less cold late in the weekend, but low confidence.

Quite something to have 2 L3 Cold Weather Alerts so far.. most winters you'd get none. Don't think we had any from 2014-2018

[Rain All Night]

They make odd choices of headline sometimes...

[KTtom]

27 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

They make odd choices of headline sometimes...

Yes, a bit misleading... At least their medium term update today does recognise what the models are showing... 'High pressure in charge for the rest of January'.