Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[johncam]

Unless there is a marked change January looking a busted flush already and for me unless we get a beast from the east and realky cold , in Feb the sun is gettng too high and melts anything quickly 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

Unless there is a marked change January looking a busted flush already and for me unless we get a beast from the east and realky cold , in Feb the sun is gettng too high and melts anything quickly 

The latest Beeb monthly outlook offers some hope for late January and if we get a proper beast in February, the sun is not too much of a hindrance.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Don

[Summer Sun]

Friday 6 Jan - Sunday 15 Jan

On Friday, patches of mist and fog are possible across the north at first, with perhaps a few showers in the far north. Meanwhile, cloud and rain are likely across the south, clearing eastward through the day. Conditions will briefly become more settled from the west through the afternoon, before further rain arrives for the weekend. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue for many, with the wettest and windiest conditions most likely in the west and northwest. Locally heavy rain likely on western upslopes, and some wintry precipitation across northern hills. Strong winds possible across the UK. Temperatures overall will be near normal or mild, though some short-lived colder interludes are also likely at times.

Monday 16 Jan - Monday 30 Jan

This period will see a continuation of a westerly flow, bringing a northwest/ southeast split across the UK. Northern and northwestern areas will continue to see the wettest and windiest weather, meanwhile the south may see more settled conditions. Occasional colder interludes may bring a risk of fog, frost, and snow, but generally temperatures will be mild for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 6 Jan - Sunday 15 Jan

On Friday, patches of mist and fog are possible across the north at first, with perhaps a few showers in the far north. Meanwhile, cloud and rain are likely across the south, clearing eastward through the day. Conditions will briefly become more settled from the west through the afternoon, before further rain arrives for the weekend. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue for many, with the wettest and windiest conditions most likely in the west and northwest. Locally heavy rain likely on western upslopes, and some wintry precipitation across northern hills. Strong winds possible across the UK. Temperatures overall will be near normal or mild, though some short-lived colder interludes are also likely at times.

Monday 16 Jan - Monday 30 Jan

This period will see a continuation of a westerly flow, bringing a northwest/ southeast split across the UK. Northern and northwestern areas will continue to see the wettest and windiest weather, meanwhile the south may see more settled conditions. Occasional colder interludes may bring a risk of fog, frost, and snow, but generally temperatures will be mild for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

No real positive changes for colder weather with a mild January favoured!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

No real positive changes for colder weather with a mild January favoured!!

Time for a break for me Don..

Maybe things will look better in a few weeks.

[Don]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Time for a break for me Don..

Maybe things will look better in a few weeks.

Do you think?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Do you think?

It's just grim, no idea if things will look better or worse TBH..

[Don]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's just grim, no idea if things will look better or worse TBH..

It's a shame as things did look a little more positive recently!

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Mostly mild
• Rain at times
• Drier, chillier interludes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64140915

 

[KTtom]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Having just read the bbc long range there are reasons to be positive about their thoughts Hopefully a bit of wording change with the METO just in time for -5c uppers on the GEFS ENS in FI on the 12z.

 

 

Must be honest, never really bother with BBC but having just nipped over after seeing your post its a refreshing change to see a well worded forecast that sounds like its been written by a human with explanations as opposed to the Mets version! 

[RJBingham]

Lets see how the BBC forecast from the 10th of December worked out.

[frosty ground]

29 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Lets see how the BBC forecast from the 10th of December worked out.

Decent forecast 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 7 Jan - Monday 16 Jan

A band of rain is expected to push in from the west through Saturday, heavier in the west and clearing eastern coasts through the afternoon, possibly persisting longer in the southeast. Blustery showers will follow in the west, perhaps wintry over hills, with a risk of coastal gales. Through into next week, a continuation of this unsettled theme is most likely. Wettest and windiest conditions are expected across the west and northwest, where showers will sometimes merge into longer spells of rain, with a chance of snow mainly on high ground. Drier conditions are more probable to the south, with occasional rain at times. Disruptive winds remain a risk, particularly for the northwest and other exposed coasts. Temperature widely average to mild throughout, with some colder spells in the north.

Tuesday 17 Jan - Tuesday 31 Jan

This period will see a continuation of a predominantly westerly flow, bringing a northwest southeast split across the UK. Northern and northwestern areas will continue to see the wettest and windiest weather, meanwhile the south may see more settled conditions. Occasional colder interludes may bring a risk of fog, frost, and snow, but generally temperatures will be mild for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Met Office having none of the BBCs speculation on a colder second half of Jan.

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Met Office having none of the BBCs speculation on a colder second half of Jan.

Nope!!

[RJBingham]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Met Office having none of the BBCs speculation on a colder second half of Jan.

I know which one I believe! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, RJBingham said:

I know which one I believe! 

Met Office I believe

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Met Office I believe

It seems the Met Office are always right when mild weather is being predicted.

 

They were completely wrong about their prediction for colder weather this month in late December while the BBC were spot on with their mild outlook at the same time!

[Don]

47 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It seems the Met Office are always right when mild weather is being predicted.

 

They were completely wrong about their prediction for colder weather this month in late December while the BBC were spot on with their mild outlook at the same time!

I found the BBC to be more accurate with their outlooks during winter 2018/19, when a number of long range forecasts were going for a colder pattern.

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Met Office I believe

I'll tell you at the end of January!! 

[Stuart]

Unsettled weather is most likely to characterise the beginning of this period, with blustery showers or longer spells of rain in all areas. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent along windward coasts but are likely to spread well inland at times. Any snow will most likely be confined to northern higher ground. Drier interludes are expected to remain brief, with temperatures average, perhaps becoming milder at times in the south. Towards mid-January, a trend towards less unsettled weather is most likely. Occasional showers and longer spells of rain are still possible although mainly restricted to the north and northwest, but more prolonged drier interludes will become more likely for most, with a risk of overnight frost and morning fog and an increased chance of colder conditions for a time.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 3 Jan 2023

Weather and climate change - Met Office

[Stuart]

Mid-January is likely to bring less unsettled conditions, with more prolonged drier interludes for most areas - increasing the incidence of overnight frost and morning fog. Showers and longer spells of rain are possible, however mainly confined to the north and northwest. Towards the end of the period, a return to unsettled conditions is the most likely outcome, with spells of wet and windy weather probable across all areas with brief dry interludes. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average, but with an increased chance of temporary colder conditions at first.

 

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 3 Jan 2023

 

Weather and climate change - Met Office

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Next few days

• Saying mild
• Wet and windy at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64155763

 

[KTtom]

Snippet of hope from the Met, at least for something dryer and colder.

[Don]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Snippet of hope from the Met, at least for something dryer and colder.

Today's Met office updates are much more positive IMO.  Nothing particularly wintry, but at least it would feel more seasonal with some drier weather and overnight frosts!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

Today's Met office updates are much more positive IMO.  Nothing particularly wintry, but at least it would feel more seasonal with some drier weather and overnight frosts!

like Dec 7th to 17th then, Donald