Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The update is still pretty decent today . 

Quite a step backwards I would say.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Quite a step backwards I would say.

Not sure about that and these forecasts are bound to change daily, given the uncertainty.  The possible warm up on yesterday's outlook has gone today with it now trending colder for the UK in general and temps near or below average overall.

[That ECM]

Just now, Don said:

Not sure about that and these forecasts are bound to change daily, given the uncertainty.  The possible warm up on yesterday's outlook has gone today with it now trending colder for the UK in general and temps near or below average overall.

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.
 

I was a bit imby tbf. As whole it’s ok. I put little faith in them tbh and I think the only people who read them are us.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Quite a step backwards I would say.

I suppose a different forecaster writes it up everyday . So they explain it differently (word it differently) . But they flip flop around as much as we do on here . I don’t bye into the met get to see x y and z model etc . They still haven’t a scooby like us lol . But all things considered I’ve seen a lot worse and it looks pretty decent but maybe not in bournemouth

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I suppose a different forecaster writes it up everyday . So they explain it differently (word it differently) . But they flip flop around as much as we do on here . I don’t bye into the met get to see x y and z model etc . They still haven’t a scooby like us lol . But all things considered I’ve seen a lot worse and it looks pretty decent but maybe not in bournemouth

I had just looked at the icon also and that had given me the hump.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 25 Dec - Tuesday 3 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for this whole period. The most probable scenario has cold conditions affecting northern areas and pushing south into milder air at times, however there is significant uncertainty in the location and movement of the boundary between the regimes. Any milder conditions are likely to be accompanied by wetter weather. Periods of rain are likely to run west-to-east across the country, bringing a threat of snow where they meet the colder air. Temperatures likely to be cold in the north and milder further south in general, however a downward trend is likely across all areas with average to below average temperatures for the country as a whole most likely for this period overall.

Wednesday 4 Jan - Wednesday 18 Jan

Confidence remains low at the start of the year. There is a signal for generally settled conditions, interspersed between periods of wet and windy weather, and a usual chance of snow. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, with some colder conditions perhaps developing again around mid January

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[KTtom]

Tidy forecast really. Your not going to get much more than that unless there is a 2010 looming, plus the fact they keep mentioning cold the prospects of colder weather is another positive, also, no mention of wet and stormy! Plenty of years bygone the words mild, wet and gales have been constant in these forecasts throughout winter.

[Don]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Tidy forecast really. Your not going to get much more than that unless there is a 2010 looming, plus the fact they keep mentioning cold the prospects of colder weather is another positive, also, no mention of wet and stormy! Plenty of years bygone the words mild, wet and gales have been constant in these forecasts throughout winter.

Their early to mid January outlook today mirrors last night's EC46, which perhaps is no surprise!

2 hours ago, That ECM said:

I had just looked at the icon also and that had given me the hump.

I think the ICON gave most of us the hump! 

[KTtom]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Their early to mid January outlook today mirrors last night's EC46, which perhaps is no surprise!

I think the ICON gave most of us the hump! 

Can u summarise for those like me who missed it pls?

[Don]

7 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Can u summarise for those like me who missed it pls?

Best to visit the model thread but in a nutshell, the chances of a white Christmas and cold Christmas to NY period appear to be dwindling rapidly!! 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Christmas

• Hill snow possible north Scotland
• Heavy rain could bring localised flooding to south England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64033692

 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Christmas

• Hill snow possible north Scotland
• Heavy rain could bring localised flooding to south England

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64033692

 

Underwhelming

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Sounds about right.

[Don]

Met Office should be updating their outlook soon.  Anyone slightly nervous?! 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Met Office should be updating their outlook soon.  Anyone slightly nervous?! 

Depends if glosea has had a run since their last one ……

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Met Office should be updating their outlook soon.  Anyone slightly nervous?! 

Not really..

They will almost certainly downgrade cold.

 Kinda resigned to that ,if not today, tomorrow.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not really..

They will almost certainly downgrade cold.

 Kinda resigned to that ,if not today, tomorrow.

I accept that but the Met Office is the final thread keeping my hopes alive!

The fact that it's a bit later than usual tells us something....

Edited December 21, 2022 by Don

[Cymro]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I accept that but the Met Office is the final thread keeping my hopes alive!

I would never pin much hope on the mid/long range forecast from the Metoffice. Its notorious for being very vague, fence sitting and about as useful as a soggy custard cream at the bottom of a cup of tea

Edited December 21, 2022 by Cymro

[Cymro]

Monday 26 Dec - Wednesday 4 Jan

Frequent wintry showers affecting northern areas on Monday, these becoming confined to the Northern Isles, where very windy too. Elsewhere, some sunshine, but an area of cloud and rain, with a small chance of snow on its northern edge may return from the south for a time. For the following few days, probably a fairly windy and changeable period of weather, with rain, and some snow at times, interspersed with colder, brighter spells. Around the turn of the year, uncertainties in the forecast increase, but a ridge of high pressure may bring a quieter interlude for many with more widely colder conditions, overnight frost and crisp, sunny days. Some wintry showers are also possible, especially in coastal areas.

 

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 21 Dec 2022

Nothing conclusive here and that's not surprising given the complexity of the forecast. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Cymro

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Monday 26 Dec - Wednesday 4 Jan

Frequent wintry showers affecting northern areas on Monday, these becoming confined to the Northern Isles, where very windy too. Elsewhere, some sunshine, but an area of cloud and rain, with a small chance of snow on its northern edge may return from the south for a time. For the following few days, probably a fairly windy and changeable period of weather, with rain, and some snow at times, interspersed with colder, brighter spells. Around the turn of the year, uncertainties in the forecast increase, but a ridge of high pressure may bring a quieter interlude for many with more widely colder conditions, overnight frost and crisp, sunny days. Some wintry showers are also possible, especially in coastal areas.

 

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 21 Dec 2022

Hmmmm 

Better than I thought, interesting they think any ridge will be a cold High..

Monday the 26th might be a snowy day for some in the North with altitude..

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm 

Better than I thought, interesting they think any ridge will be a cold High..

Monday the 26th might be a snowy day for some in the North with altitude..

So there we have it and yes could have been worse.  Cold zonality at times? 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Don

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm 

Better than I thought, interesting they think any ridge will be a cold High..

Monday the 26th might be a snowy day for some in the North with altitude..

Kasim mainly, but not for me, too low really, GFS 06Z though has it further south

[That ECM]

If you ever want to know how hard forecasting is just look back at number of their medium term updates. Changes so much it’s crazy. 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 26 Dec - Wednesday 4 Jan

Frequent wintry showers affecting northern areas on Monday, these becoming confined to the Northern Isles, where very windy too. Elsewhere, some sunshine, but an area of cloud and rain, with a small chance of snow on its northern edge may return from the south for a time. For the following few days, probably a fairly windy and changeable period of weather, with rain, and some snow at times, interspersed with colder, brighter spells. Around the turn of the year, uncertainties in the forecast increase, but a ridge of high pressure may bring a quieter interlude for many with more widely colder conditions, overnight frost and crisp, sunny days. Some wintry showers are also possible, especially in coastal areas.

Thursday 5 Jan - Thursday 19 Jan

Confidence remains low at the start of the year. There is a signal for generally settled conditions though periods of wet and windy weather are still possible, and within this will come the chance of some snow. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal, with some generally colder conditions perhaps developing again around mid-January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

My 10 year old neighbour could have told me all that and just stuck perhaps in there Perhaps they shouldn't bother with monthly updates and stick to 7 days perhaps