Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Much milder
• Wet and Windy
• Risk of local flooding
• Unsettled into Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64014198

 

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Indeed, I wouldn't want to be in charge of the Xmas day / boxing day forecast at the moment, it will be interesting to see if the met office give any hints in the text update later on their thoughts

 

Well even the pros don’t no really , bit like us lot lol . But it seems a good update for Xmas week

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well even the pros don’t no really , bit like us lot lol . But it seems a good update for Xmas week

Was just about to post in the met office thread, it's a very good update, especially the post Xmas change to colder conditions.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Was just about to post in the met office thread, it's a very good update, especially the post Xmas change to colder conditions.

Let’s hope the charts upgrade to make more certain the possibilities of arctic weather post Xmas!

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Was just about to post in the met office thread, it's a very good update, especially the post Xmas change to colder conditions.

Sounds like they been gfs 6z

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well even the pros don’t no really , bit like us lot lol . But it seems a good update for Xmas week

What a turn around - possibly some boom stuff coming then

[Rayth]

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022

 

Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Rayth said:

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022

 

Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs 

Not bad at all, sounds like one of us wrote that

[TSNWK]

Great metoffice mid ranger… and as for the bit about trending to milder towards end of period.. that’s always there I feel.. 

[Polar Maritime]

Nice update from the Meto there

[Day 10]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Very interesting gfs this morning hopefully trend continues met office just updated looking very cold.

Yes, reading between the lines, you would expect to see a few upgrades this eve.

[northwestsnow]

Exeter upgrade

They do caveat with low confidence but certainly a big change today..

Onto the 12z runs ..

[TSNWK]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Yes, reading between the lines, you would expect to see a few upgrades this eve.

Be nice to see a flip on the ukm. Maybe the ensembles that we don’t get to see are supportive of it returning cold and we have had to endure mild outliers as op run

[Tim Bland]

Met office think the cold will become embedded after Christmas

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Met office think the cold will become embedded after Christmas

Sounds like a cold high pressure to me.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

Tuesday 3 Jan - Tuesday 17 Jan

Confidence is relatively low during early and mid-January. Temperatures overall are most likely to be around average though there is a greater likelihood of cold spells compared to normal. There is likely to be a mixture of conditions with some settled interludes bringing overnight frosts and morning fog. These interspersed with more unsettled spells with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds. Snow remains possible at times, most likely over hills in the north but could fall to lower levels at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Frigid]

I know there isn't any point looking past 14 days but the second paragraph does have some interest..

"Temperatures overall are most likely to be around average though there is a greater likelihood of cold spells compared to normal. There is likely to be a mixture of conditions with some settled interludes bringing overnight frosts and morning fog."

A mention of snow also there.. could see an interesting January  

[iceman1991]

1 hour ago, Rayth said:

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022

 

Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs 

Hmmm just seems high pressure on control no mention snow for south sounds the same as the cold spell we’ve just had just dry not the best really 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead not really showing anything overly cold over the next 10 days for the vast majority, maybe some snow and colder at times in Scotland, but that's not uncommon for the time of year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64033690

 

[goosey007]

 

[Fozfoster]

30 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Trust me……….. nobody knows!!!!

watching this helps, you understand the complexities of where we’re at………

How many of you have watched this?……… because a lot of people would not have posted!!! Sorry just sayin.
 

I will get my coat 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Fozfoster

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Might see a backtrack from the Met Office then for the period post Xmas for mild conditions in the South.

Edited December 20, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[Summer Sun]

2023 will be hotter than this year according to the met office

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

2023 will be hotter than this year according to the met office

 

No surprise really.

[ICE COLD]

The update is still pretty decent today .