Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Their confidence is very low in fact , it’s just if it happens it will be disruptive

Probably be even lower now! 

 

[seb]

26 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

They’ve currently placed a 30% of this happening 

Not sure if it's 30% (the text states confidence is very low) but considering the struggle of the models at the moment, I wouldn't expect anything else.

[Scandinavian High.]

17 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

METO confidence for Sun/Monday's event is high

And just like that warning for south east England get in there

[Met4Cast]

20 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

METO confidence for Sun/Monday's event is high

I wouldn't say it's "high". It's a low likelihood weather warning as per the matrix

But yes, certainly high enough to warrant an early warning which is surprising given broader model differences.

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

And just like that warning for south east England get in there

And as is the way.  A warning is followed by the next run suggesting it was  little bit hasty...

Edited December 9, 2022 by TSNWK

[seb]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I wouldn't say it's "high". It's a low likelihood weather warning as per the matrix

But yes, certainly high enough to warrant an early warning which is surprising given broader model differences.

Certainly the case as every single automated app (* I refuse to look at BBC Weather but MetO, Accu, WeatherPro, Weather Channel and Apple/Dark Sky) has picked up on it in the last few hours and is showing snow for my location on Sunday for several hours (and into Monday) so clearly sufficient model consensus to warrant the warning.

[Updated_Weather]

19 minutes ago, seb said:

Not sure if it's 30% (the text states confidence is very low) but considering the struggle of the models at the moment, I wouldn't expect anything else.

I’m talking about the cold weather alert warning as it’s been extended & they said stated this event which could affect London and the S/E has a 30% chance at this stage. As if it did occur could cause disruption.

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Pretty good model agreement on a pattern change by next weekend for the UK to a milder SW'ly orientated flow and staying dry but cold before that, but yes the freezing, snowless spell looks like coming to an end in around 8 days time

The BBC in their 10 day outlook has an area of low pressure passing through the south middle of next week bringing a sleet/snow event and slightly milder temps before a northerly takes hold again next Saturday....

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Changed MetO to BBC

[seaside boy]

Satellite images with clouds height of Europe, Weather in Europe - SAT24.com

EN.SAT24.COM

---

Satellite images with clouds height of Europe, Weather in Europe - SAT24.com

The fronts to our south just can't  make it to  the uk

[seb]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

I’m talking about the cold weather alert warning as it’s been extended & they said stated this event which could affect London and the S/E has a 30% chance at this stage. As if it did occur could cause disruption.

Ok I’m talking about the weather warning which was issued about 4 hours later

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

The BBC in their 10 day outlook has an area of low pressure passing through the south middle of next week bringing a sleet/snow event and slightly milder temps before a northerly takes hold again next Saturday....

 

They don't even mention the possible snow in the south east Sunday/Monday.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Changed MetO to BBC

[seb]

3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

They don't even mention the possible snow in the south east Sunday/Monday.

No surprise considering the linked video is the BBC 10 day outlook… as always solely relying on the ECM run from 12 hours ago.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

42 minutes ago, snowblind said:

They don't even mention the possible snow in the south east Sunday/Monday.

Maybe because it’s not significant enough to be mentioned ?

[seb]

56 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Maybe because it’s not significant enough to be mentioned ?

More likely because it’s the BBC’s Meteogroup forecast, recorded early this morning and based on last night’s ECM and not the Metoffice forecast as cited (which does mention the possible snow inclusive of possible disruption).

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 14 Dec - Friday 23 Dec

On Wednesday sleet or snow showers likely to continue in parts of the northeast, with the south possibly increasing in cloud cover. Strong winds possible in the south which would make it feel bitterly cold in places. Conditions will likely stay similar further into the period, with wintry showers for many coastal regions. Often dry and cold inland with widespread sharp frosts and patchy freezing fog. A continuation of this pattern is likely for much of this period but with a chance of more unsettled weather spreading from the southwest later. This would see spells of rain, especially in the south, but also the likelihood of snow during the transition. Feeling cold or very cold with temperatures mainly below average, perhaps increasing to nearer average later, especially in the south.

Saturday 24 Dec - Saturday 7 Jan

General themes remain uncertain for the rest of the period. Conditions may be widely changeable, with some spells of rain, and at times snow. These expected to be accompanied by strong winds, initially focused in southern parts, but affecting all areas at times. Colder and more settled conditions with occasional wintry showers could continue, particularly in the north. Temperatures gradually returning closer to average towards the end of December and start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Staying cold
• Further snow showers
• Cold and frosty nights
• Lingering freezing fog
• Hints it could turn a bit milder in the run up to Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/63923736

 

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Staying cold
• Further snow showers
• Cold and frosty nights
• Lingering freezing fog
• Hints it could turn a bit milder in the run up to Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/63923736

 

How dare they use the Mmmmmummmilder word !!!!

[seaside boy]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dHwAamQ0b9Y

Hey ..look at this January 3rd.  2010.

Almost the same situation as this week

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Staying cold
• Further snow showers
• Cold and frosty nights
• Lingering freezing fog
• Hints it could turn a bit milder in the run up to Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/63923736

 

I do hope we see some widespread snow at some point during this cold spell, would be unlucky if this didn't happen!

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Very cold for another week then slightly milder

Saturday 10 December to – Sunday 18 December

Below-average temperatures with wintry showers

Monday 19 December to – Sunday 25 December

Less cold and wetter for a while

Monday 26 December to – Sunday 8 January

Potentially becoming colder again

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 15 Dec - Saturday 24 Dec

On Thursday snow showers likely continuing across the north and east, and perhaps in the southwest, mainly confined to coastal regions, but reaching inland across Scotland. Elsewhere, a mostly dry and sunny day. Possibly windy in the north with a risk of gales here. Feeling cold to very cold quite widely, with another widespread frost overnight. For the rest of the period, conditions staying similar, with wintry showers in coastal regions, especially the northeast. Often dry and cold inland with widespread frost and a chance of freezing fog in places. A more unsettled regime is likely to move into parts of the south or west later, bringing spells of rain and possibly snow. Temperatures continuing below normal for most, possibly increasing to nearer normal in the south and west later.

Sunday 25 Dec - Sunday 8 Jan

General themes remain uncertain for the rest of the period. Conditions may be widely changeable, with some spells of rain, and at times snow. Colder and more settled conditions with occasional wintry showers could continue, particularly in the north, with the south possibly seeing more unsettled conditions. Temperatures staying colder than average towards the end of December and start of January, although perhaps less cold in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[DOdo]

They said last week that there were tentative signs of change for this week, hasnt happened yet and if I was to place a bet. I would put my money on it staying cold right up to New Year, It is is a night marish position that they are in. Give them a break

[Chesil View]

Darren 'call me Mr Mild' Bett basically said that the possible milder push is a long way off and subject to change on the bbc week ahead forecast earlier.

[Summer Sun]

Darren Bett showing milder air moving up from the south for the start of Christmas week, but obviously STC

[johncam]

Latest Met update bringing in the milder temps running up to Xmas, typical