Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Robbie Garrett]

They must have seen more than enough.  Feel for them as they only gave a 15% shot on there Contingency planning of cold weather.  But you'd hope the councils have stockpiled with how cold *cough* warm it's been lately. Ahem.

12 minutes ago, Ghost of winters past said:

The Met Office are very much bird in the hand..They DO NOT ramp. 

If they are on board with this, then i for one shall take notice..

Ghost.

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's about as much as a ramp as you can get from the Met Office at that range.

 

[Valleyboy]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's about as much as a ramp as you can get from the Met Office at that range.

There’s nothing to ramp if it is a northerly, as it’ll be a damp squib.  We need to look east for real wintry weather.  Hopefully, any northerly will back north east, east.

[P-M]

5 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

There’s nothing to ramp if it is a northerly, as it’ll be a damp squib.  We need to look east for real wintry weather.  Hopefully, any northerly will back north east, east.

Depends where you are in the country.  I've seen significant showers pushing down the North east coast in a screaming northerly although I agree its perhaps not the best for inland areas or those living further south. 

[Bats32]

Exeter getting on board, it's getting real now!

[Polaris]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ooh er, Missus... Ten-Day trend and the S-word!

 

Temps too high over weekend early next wk with snow chance on mountains. Northerly flow later next week (useless here)

Much prefer an easterly 
 

Better than the Atlantic crud for sure. 

[Benny123]

"There is a relatively high amount of confidence in this scenario.." latest from Ben Rich. 

[Don]

Interesting forecasts from the Metoffice today.

[Ali1977]

 

This has been released by the METO, an early warning seems like a good call looking at todays charts. 

[MattStoke]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

 

This has been released by the METO, an early warning seems like a good call looking at todays charts. 

Level 1 is in place throughout every winter. It’s the default level.

[joggs]

Not a bad update again from Exeter.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

34 minutes ago, joggs said:

Not a bad update again from Exeter.

It still shows the same on the website ?

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It still shows the same on the website ?

@joggsI think has inside early door info. He got right to word 45 mind before it appeared on the public site

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 6 Dec - Thursday 15 Dec

On Tuesday, showers and rain are expected in the south, southeast and north of the UK. Moreover, Snow and heavy showers are then possible across high ground. Moderate winds are expected in most areas, locally strong in the north and perhaps south of the UK. For the rest of the period, high-pressure systems should dominate across the northwest and low-pressure systems are likely to persist in the southwest of the UK. As a result, occasional showers and moderate winds are expected throughout the rest of the period, especially around northern coasts, with more persistent rainfall likely in southern regions. Snow and snow showers are expected at times across high-ground areas. Temperatures are likely to be below normal through the period, possibly feeling rather cold.

Friday 16 Dec - Friday 30 Dec

Confidence is low for this period, but overall settled and relatively dry weather is more likely than stormy weather. At this time of year frost and fog are common, and the chance of these, along with below-normal temperatures and spells of wintry precipitation, is slightly higher than usual. Conversely, heavy rain and strong winds are less likely than in a typical December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It still shows the same on the website ?

The 'not confined to higher ground' comment has gone mind.

[snowblizzard]

39 minutes ago, swfc said:

They are mate and folk still moaning

I'm not moaning, but I'm a little disappointed that Met Office (10 day trend) are not expecting a severe cold spell like 2018 BFTE! 

Edited December 1, 2022 by snowblizzard

[Bats32]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

I'm not moaning, but I'm a little disappointed that Met Office (10 day trend) are not expecting a severe cold spell like 2018 BFE! 

They're going to have to soon!

[Northwest NI]

Is this Cobra meeting stuff for the government?

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Is this Cobra meeting stuff for the government?

What cobra meeting?

[snowblind]

A little bit disappointed with the 7th to 16th December outlook just issued. Looks like they are only seeing significant snow accumulating over the Scottish mountains before it all breakdown from the South West.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Edited December 2, 2022 by snowblind

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

A little bit disappointed with the 7th to 16th December outlook just issued. Looks like they are only seeing significant snow accumulating over the Scottish mountains before it all breakdown from the South West.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

They are simply sitting on the fence with regards to a prolonged cold spell because of the uncertainty surrounding details. If they issued an update to say Channels lows with several cm's of snow and sub-zero maxima, the media would go into a frenzy wouldn't they?

[bluearmy]

18 hours ago, Northwest NI said:

Is this Cobra meeting stuff for the government?

Yes - full of snakes …….

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

They are simply sitting on the fence with regards to a prolonged cold spell because of the uncertainty surrounding details. If they issued an update to say Channels lows with several cm's of snow and sub-zero maxima, the media would go into a frenzy wouldn't they?

This 

and tbh, where is the cross model agreement on anything beyond the middle of next week ???

[Sceptical]

10 minutes ago, snowblind said:

A little bit disappointed with the 7th to 16th December outlook just issued. Looks like they are only seeing significant snow accumulating over the Scottish mountains before it all breakdown from the South West.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The outlook changes daily. I wouldn't get too hung up on the details a fortnight down the line.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Sceptical

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

26 minutes ago, snowblind said:

A little bit disappointed with the 7th to 16th December outlook just issued. Looks like they are only seeing significant snow accumulating over the Scottish mountains before it all breakdown from the South West.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

That’s not how I’m reading it.

There’s possibility of snow further South too if any breakdowns occur.

MO UPDATE -

There is reasonable confidence that temperatures will remain below average, and it looks like turning even colder from Wednesday. Showers will fall increasingly as snow in the north, even to lower levels at times with notable accumulations over the Scottish mountains. There is a low risk in the far southwest, of a more prolonged spell of rain, which would turn to snow over the moors, but this is far from certain. The best of the clear or sunny spells looks most likely in the west, though this could lead to some hard night frosts. Towards mid-month, the signal for below average temperatures weakens with hints of milder, wetter conditions pushing in from the southwest - though any such features could be preceded by a period of hill snow.

Edited December 2, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The outlook changes daily. I wouldn't get too hung up on the details a fortnight down the line.

Yes, it's a fluid situation currently.

[johncam]

Just now, Don said:

Yes, it's a fluid situation currently.

They always hedge their bets