Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Don]

Just now, johncam said:

They always hedge their bets 

You can't blame them!

[legritter]

Hi gang , the met office are professionals as most of us  know .There is the potential for wintry hazards as we can see on the latest charts especially after this coming Wednesday which is 5 to 6 days away. . With their experience and extensive tools at their disposal and Past BUSTS ETC  they will not stick their heads out and say widespread Snow at this stage 5 to 6  days away .Neither will they hold back if charts and data suggests that the uk public are very likely to experience disruptive snow and freezing temp etc .Also take in to account the cost of living crisis and heating etc ,and as other posters have said the newspapers and other media outlets causing , ........... many problems which is the last thing we need right now in the UK .Keep an eye on the latest Fax charts  ,Ecm up to say 144 hrs ,and uk met the same .Also our brilliant knowledgeable posters , and give the curtains a twitch and be Patient. Cheers gang and im off to the kitchen for a sausage bap with coffe ,eyes down for the GFS  run in 15 minutes  . 

 

[John88B]

Well the BBC weather presenter seems bright and breezy this morning talking about colder weather and snow for some next week.

Am I right in thinking the BBC use the ECM for their forecasts and Is the ECM the only tool at their disposal?

[Blessed Weather]

43 minutes ago, John88B said:

Well the BBC weather presenter seems bright and breezy this morning talking about colder weather and snow for some next week.

Am I right in thinking the BBC use the ECM for their forecasts and Is the ECM the only tool at their disposal?

BBC forecasts are produced by MeteoGroup, now owned by US weather company DTN, and they operate in 14 countries. I would imagine they use a mix of models including ECM and GFS. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MeteoGroup

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cold December with some wintry precipitation

Saturday 3 December to – Sunday 11 December

Cold and keen, even for December

Monday 12 December to – Sunday 18 December

Staying cold in most places

Monday 19 December to – Sunday 1 January

Staying cold but potentially milder by New Year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Speedbird]

Met Office Yellow warnings now out for Highlands and Northern Scotland for snow from Wednesday 7th December

[iceman1991]

 Pants mettoffice update for the south just sleet and rain hopefully will change

Edited December 3, 2022 by iceman1991

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 8 Dec - Saturday 17 Dec

It will likely continue to be cold with further showers for much of the UK, which will fall as sleet and snow across the north leading to some accumulations of snow across higher ground, showers falling as rain or sleet more likely in parts of the south. Away from coasts there will likely be a good deal of fine and dry weather with sunny spells at times in the south, but with some sharp overnight frosts expected. There is a small chance that some less cold weather and rain could push up into the extreme south later on in the forecast period. On balance, however temperatures remaining cold or very cold everywhere in the UK throughout.

Saturday 17 Dec - Saturday 31 Dec

It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times. With the north and east most likely to hold on to colder conditions for longest. Any transition between the cold and mild conditions would bring a risk of rain, with sleet and snow especially over the hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[sorepaw1]

I think they will be a very different update in the next 48hrs and maybe some Amber weather warnings issued. 

[Paul_1978]

The latest BBC weather for the week forecast recorded this afternoon show plenty of snow for Scotland next week, some showers on the east coast of England, and flurries in the north west, but not a lot elsewhere. The forecast took us up to Fri 9th Dec.

[Lincs Observation]

With so much more at the disposal to the Meto and the like in regards to current metrology information it will be an interesting viewing on countryfile later today and the thoughts on the week ahead, and in this forum later tomorrow to finally sort the wheat from the chaff for the end of the week when the real cold sets in.

 

LO

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, Lincs Observation said:

With so much more at the disposal to the Meto and the like in regards to current metrology information it will be an interesting viewing on countryfile later today and the thoughts on the week ahead, and in this forum later tomorrow to finally sort the wheat from the chaff for the end of the week when the real cold sets in.

 

LO

Morning my understanding is that the BBC weather now uses the ECM model rather than the met office.

[MattStoke]

Just now, festivalking said:

Morning my understanding is that the BBC weather now uses the ECM model rather than the met office.

Meteogroup supply their data but often their forecasts do just seem to mimic the raw ECM operational output.

[Lincs Observation]

Just now, festivalking said:

Morning my understanding is that the BBC weather now uses the ECM model rather than the met office.

That maybe the case however which ever model is used, the more experienced view and extra info will still make interesting viewing later today.

[iceman1991]

Slight upgrade for south I say for lastest mettoffice out look 

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm Exeter suggesting any lying snow confined to higher hills and N Scotland.

That's fine with me ,lots of seasonal frosty weather in the outlook inline with the 00z runs in the immediate outlook.

Referencing an attack from the SW into the following week so it looks like the low to the SW is going to be a player..

Edited December 4, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

Friday 9 Dec - Sunday 18 Dec

It is expected to remain cold on Friday, with occasional showers especially in the north near the coasts, these likely falling as sleet or snow. Many inland areas will remain fine and dry, especially in the south. Into the weekend, conditions remain cold, with wintry showers mainly affecting windward coasts, any accumulations of snow away from northern Scotland likely confined to higher hills. Many inland areas could well stay fine and dry throughout although there will be some sharp overnight frosts along with the odd patch of freezing fog which could be slow to clear. Some bands of rain may push into the south after the weekend, possibly wintry, especially over higher ground. Temperatures remaining cold throughout with a chance of a short spell of very cold weather.

Sunday 18 Dec - Sunday 1 Jan

It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times, with the north and east most likely to hold on to colder conditions for longest. Any transition between the cold and mild conditions would bring a risk of rain, with sleet and snow especially over the hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[iceman1991]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm Exeter suggesting any lying snow confined to higher hills and N Scotland.

That's fine with me ,lots of seasonal frosty weather in the outlook inline with the 00z runs in the immediate outlook.

Referencing an attack from the SW into the following week so it looks like the low to the SW is going to be a player..

Looks interesting seems like there not to sure either what could happen with this rain coming from the west interesting they mention possibly wintry hopefully they upgrade more through the week from this

[Storm Force]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 9 Dec - Sunday 18 Dec

It is expected to remain cold on Friday, with occasional showers especially in the north near the coasts, these likely falling as sleet or snow. Many inland areas will remain fine and dry, especially in the south. Into the weekend, conditions remain cold, with wintry showers mainly affecting windward coasts, any accumulations of snow away from northern Scotland likely confined to higher hills. Many inland areas could well stay fine and dry throughout although there will be some sharp overnight frosts along with the odd patch of freezing fog which could be slow to clear. Some bands of rain may push into the south after the weekend, possibly wintry, especially over higher ground. Temperatures remaining cold throughout with a chance of a short spell of very cold weather.

Sunday 18 Dec - Sunday 1 Jan

It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times, with the north and east most likely to hold on to colder conditions for longest. Any transition between the cold and mild conditions would bring a risk of rain, with sleet and snow especially over the hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Have to wait and see.  Gav last on YouTube did mention that there will be many troughs developing next week.  Due to the unstable easterly flow.  Precipitation may will be of mark.  Hopefully, there could be a few nice surprises this week.  Ex tropical storm is one to watch for on Friday.  Unless it plunges south into Iberia.  ECM/GFS / ICON and Met are having different predictions on this.  

 

3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Looks interesting seems like there not to sure either what could happen with this rain coming from the west interesting they mention possibly wintry hopefully they upgrade more through the week from this

Met sitting on the fence as always 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

That has to be the most underplayed forecast I've ever seen from the met. Settling snow won't be confided to Scottish hills. Little troughs can pop up at a days notice. While I do agree, the risk of snow THIS week has somewhat been watered down, I believe it will be a long term gain.

[iceman1991]

16 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

That has to be the most underplayed forecast I've ever seen from the met. Settling snow won't be confided to Scottish hills. Little troughs can pop up at a days notice. While I do agree, the risk of snow THIS week has somewhat been watered down, I believe it will be a long term gain.

I guess postive way thinking least if it does snow  end week the ground will be plenty cold enough and will stay on the ground 

[Paul_1978]

Lots of excitement in the model thread about snow chances, but the MetO continues to state snow only on windward coasts and high ground. No mention of any widespread snow or much at lower levels.

[iceman1991]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Lots of excitement in the model thread about snow chances, but the MetO continues to state snow only on windward coasts and high ground. No mention of any widespread snow or much at lower levels.

From the weekend though there’s a chance with rain coming from the west possible snow event 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 9 Dec - Sunday 18 Dec

It is expected to remain cold on Friday, with occasional showers especially in the north near the coasts, these likely falling as sleet or snow. Many inland areas will remain fine and dry, especially in the south. Into the weekend, conditions remain cold, with wintry showers mainly affecting windward coasts, any accumulations of snow away from northern Scotland likely confined to higher hills. Many inland areas could well stay fine and dry throughout although there will be some sharp overnight frosts along with the odd patch of freezing fog which could be slow to clear. Some bands of rain may push into the south after the weekend, possibly wintry, especially over higher ground. Temperatures remaining cold throughout with a chance of a short spell of very cold weather.

Sunday 18 Dec - Sunday 1 Jan

It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times, with the north and east most likely to hold on to colder conditions for longest. Any transition between the cold and mild conditions would bring a risk of rain, with sleet and snow especially over the hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Mmm I can't understand why the Met Office are saying any accumulations of snow away from northern Scotland likely confined to higher ground hills - can only think they don't see much precipitation, otherwise conditions will be optimum for snow accumulations on most low ground away from coasts I would think. It does say 'likely' which doesn't mean definately, and I suspect this will change in the days ahead should any frontal features, troughs develop in the flow, but these won't be forecasted well, and as ever will be a nowcast. What altitude is higher ground hills anaywhere, could be anything between 100 and 600m.. I wish they were a bit more precise in what they mean when they say high ground, its open to interpretation.

Edited December 4, 2022 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Turning colder
• Chance of snow
• Widespread frost

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/63853971