Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Updated_Weather]

MetO have just issue a weather warning for Midlands and E/A - Interesting!

[throwoff]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have just issue a weather warning for Midlands and E/A - Interesting!

That's a suck it and see warning if I have ever seen one. Just put a blob over the entire midlands, EA and even most of Kent...

Wait for the 12z runs then see them change it again.

[nick sussex]

It’s interesting the latest  warning mentions more chance of settling snow towards the south of the region .

This is due to the colder air having a better chance of undercutting as the front slows and the developing wave could intensify the precip .

 

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s interesting the latest  warning mentions more chance of settling snow towards the south of the region .

This is due to the colder air having a better chance of undercutting as the front slows and the developing wave could intensify the precip .

 

I could see it in the models, but I love to read it from Nick!

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

my goodness we do have some very clever forecasters on here. Just what is wrong with this as a preliminary warning. Equally what is wrong if they do change it later today?

The warning alerts gritting centres rather than leaving them not having any guidance.

When you also throw in plagiarism from others, it`s a fun read sometimes.

[goosey007]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO have just issue a weather warning for Midlands and E/A - Interesting!

no the warning is just for wales 

[Updated_Weather]

Defiantly see some interesting surprises occurring at short notice!
Met Office do seem confident of some snow down south but did mention, that ICE is the main risk here. 

I am hoping Essex here we get some snow falling, not bothered about accumulation as had very nice amount early December  

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Looking forward to the upgrade, expected in June 2023. 

Just hope it doesn't do a GFS and make it worse!

nope!

think you missed my point but thanks for drawing my attention to the met office update

[Turnedoutniceagain]

METO just upgraded for tonight/Tues am across the Midlands/South 

 

[SLEETY]

Why no warning out for tues/night we'd morning /snow, 

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Why no warning out for tues/night we'd morning /snow, 

Not enough confidence/ they don't see much impact yet?

[EML Network]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why no warning out for tues/night we'd morning /snow, 

I think they would probably want to wait until tomorrow morning to see if its likely to happen.

Similar to how they waited until this morning to put the overnight warning out.

 

 

[throwoff]

20 minutes ago, EML Network said:

I think they would probably want to wait until tomorrow morning to see if its likely to happen.

Similar to how they waited until this morning to put the overnight warning out.

 

 

This, they always leave it late when they don't have confidence. Always read the wording of the warnings as well as look at the risk matrix. 

The models are still battling out the next 24 hours, let alone the next 48.

[sausage]

Met office warning out-thursday.

Just now, sausage said:

Met office warning out-thursday.

Huge potential-just need it to shift south more on the models.

[Gizzy]

7 minutes ago, sausage said:

Met office warning out-thursday.

Huge potential-just need it to shift south more on the models.

Under a warning for today to Friday, let's see if it comes off, snow starting to fall slightly north of my location, expect we will see the start soon, bring it on 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Further insight into the meandering occlusion in southern areas and how the low tracking east can pep up precipitation as it passes.  Whilst it appears the low will track through during the middle of the night. It would be beneficial for a frost to have set in before hand.  
 

The second low is a lot more vigorous and appears to usher in milder air very rapidly. Albeit there is a possibility of transient snow on the leading edge of this front. 
 

We will have to keep a close eye on the second low Thursday / Friday as this has the potential to bring high winds in northern and NE England. 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 11 Mar - Monday 20 Mar

Confidence in the details are low throughout this period. On Saturday, cold conditions are expected across the north, accompanied by showers, some of these possibly wintry, although some sunny spells are possible. Elsewhere, milder, cloudier conditions are likely, with outbreaks of rain and some stronger winds possible. There is a small chance of more disruptive snowfall, particularly along the northern edge of the rain band. Into next week, milder conditions are expected to spread northeastwards, bringing rain and stronger winds, as well as some snow along the leading edges. Towards the end of the period, this transition is expected to continue, bringing more unsettled conditions. Periods of snow remain possible, particularly in the far north. Generally becoming somewhat milder through this period, but colder conditions may linger in the north.

Tuesday 21 Mar - Tuesday 4 Apr

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. Overall, a greater than normal chance of colder spells of weather, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[snowblind]

We'll make the most of this week then judging by the latest update.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Later in the week

• Risk of disruptive snow edging northwards
• Turning milder in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64865534

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, snowblind said:

We'll make the most of this week then judging by the latest update.

Absolutely as we should always do when it comes to wintry weather in this country!  However, the latest update is not a disaster with everyone still in the game to a certain degree.

[damianslaw]

Expect amber warnings for snow on Wednesday for snow and ice Thursday and Friday, once the Met have more confidence on the track and extent of precipitation. I expect the current yellow warnings to stay the same as they are on tomorrow's update.

[philglossop]

11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Later in the week

• Risk of disruptive snow edging northwards
• Turning milder in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64865534

 

BBC weekly forecast last night… snow under 10c for Bristol/Cardiff area on Saturday.

 

Dreadful - and useless given I’ve got to go Bristol for football on Saturday afternoon…

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 12 Mar - Tuesday 21 Mar

On Sunday, cold conditions are likely for central and northern areas at first, with further snow showers in the far north. Cloud, with rain and snow is expected to move north-east from the southwest through the day. Strong winds are likely in the west and southwest, but light winds, at least initially, in the east and northeast. Temperatures will become milder from the southwest. For the rest of the period, milder conditions are likely in most parts of the country, although some potentially colder conditions clinging on in the far north, with isolated sleet and snow showers at times. Heavy rain and a risk of strong winds are possible in the west and south. Temperatures generally around average through the period, with the exception perhaps of the far north.

Wednesday 22 Mar - Wednesday 5 Apr

Confidence remains fairly low during this period, with a lot of uncertainty. However, in general it's likely to be drier further north, apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely to be more of a feature in the south, with a low risk of snow at times, mainly on the boundary between these two regimes. Milder conditions may extend north periodically. Temperatures overall mainly around average, with milder spells in the south and colder spells in the north

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[johncam]

Cold march for the south not looking likely now 

[Summer Sun]

Some disruptive snow up the Saturday, then turning milder from Sunday for all but the far north of Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/64865534