Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Don]

Thursday 10 Aug - Saturday 19 Aug

A dry and sunny start is likely for many parts of the UK at the beginning of this period. The best of sunshine will most likely be found in central and eastern parts of the country, with conditions being cloudier and a few showers in the west and southwestern areas. Similar conditions are likely to persist throughout the rest of the period, with high pressure to the east of the UK bringing dry weather to the southeast. However, low pressure system in the northwest is likely to bring wet and rainy conditions to the northwest areas. Perhaps periods of low clouds and misty conditions at times for the south. Winds are likely to be light for most, stronger in the north. Temperatures will mostly be warmer than average.

Sunday 20 Aug - Sunday 3 Sep

A changeable pattern is most probable through the latter part of August and into early September. This is likely to bring a mixture of some dry, settled weather but also some spells of wetter, more unsettled conditions. There is a risk of some heavy rain or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures are expected to be close to average for the time of the year, but some warmer spells are also possible

UK weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Tromso-Langnes The latest UK weather forecast. Includes UK weather for today, tomorrow and long range forecasts up to 28 days.

Not bad for mid August period.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Drier by mid-August but wetter again later

Saturday 5 August to – Sunday 13 August

Changeable but drier from midweek

Monday 14 August to – Sunday 20 August

Turning wetter, especially in the north and west

Monday 21 August to – Sunday 3 September

Drier south and east, wetter north and west

Further ahead

Will the updated models show us any better chance of some dry weather in mid-August?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Theo]

On 05/08/2023 at 12:06, Don said:

Thursday 10 Aug - Saturday 19 Aug

A dry and sunny start is likely for many parts of the UK at the beginning of this period. The best of sunshine will most likely be found in central and eastern parts of the country, with conditions being cloudier and a few showers in the west and southwestern areas. Similar conditions are likely to persist throughout the rest of the period, with high pressure to the east of the UK bringing dry weather to the southeast. However, low pressure system in the northwest is likely to bring wet and rainy conditions to the northwest areas. Perhaps periods of low clouds and misty conditions at times for the south. Winds are likely to be light for most, stronger in the north. Temperatures will mostly be warmer than average.

Sunday 20 Aug - Sunday 3 Sep

A changeable pattern is most probable through the latter part of August and into early September. This is likely to bring a mixture of some dry, settled weather but also some spells of wetter, more unsettled conditions. There is a risk of some heavy rain or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures are expected to be close to average for the time of the year, but some warmer spells are also possible

UK weather

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Tromso-Langnes The latest UK weather forecast. Includes UK weather for today, tomorrow and long range forecasts up to 28 days.

Not bad for mid August period.

Goodness me. That's appallingly badly written.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Theo said:

Goodness me. That's appallingly badly written.

That has been the case more recently.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Changeable but relatively warm

Saturday 12 August to – Sunday 20 August

A drier period next week

Monday 21 August to – Sunday 27 August

Changeable but warm

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 10 September

Unsettled. Wetter in the north than the south

Further ahead

We will see if the updated longer-range models come into any better agreement on the pattern in late August and early September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 20 Aug - Tuesday 29 Aug

At the start of the period there will be mixture of sunshine and showers for many areas, but staying largely dry in the southeast. Showers most likely in the north and west, where they could be heavy at times with the odd rumble of thunder. This theme likely to continue into the start of the new week, with lighter winds and drier conditions in the southeast, and showers and stronger winds in the northwest. Temperatures are expected to remain on the warmer side of average, probably becoming hot in the southeast for a time next week, with the potential for a thundery breakdown. As we head towards the end of the period we will likely see a return to unsettled conditions and further heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday 30 Aug - Wednesday 13 Sep

The start of September is more likely to see more in the way of drier, settled weather though still some rain or showers possible at times. Overall, perhaps slightly below average rainfall for most of the UK given the potential for high pressure to be more dominant. Temperatures are likely to be around average overall, but with a possibility of spells of very warm or hot weather. However confidence in this period is lower than usual as we are approaching the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and remnants of tropical systems can have knock-on impacts on UK weather, which only become apparent on much shorter timescales.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Changeable and becoming less warm

Saturday 19 August to – Sunday 27 August

Unsettled and a bit cooler after midweek

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 3 September

Potentially wetter in the south than the north

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 17 September

Becoming drier in the south, wetter in the north

Further ahead

The next round of long-range models might give us better clarity as we take another look at the end of summer and early autumn.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 25 Aug - Sunday 3 Sep

The end of August is likely to see widespread unsettled conditions, bringing showers and sunny spells, as well as occasional strong winds, to many parts of the UK. Eastern areas have a higher likelihood of seeing more frequent showers, some of which may turn heavy or thundery, while western areas are most likely to see some drier spells. However, this does not preclude the risk of showers in the west as well. Temperatures are expected to be close to normal for many but may be slightly depressed in wetter or windy areas. Moving into early September, a continuation of the unsettled theme is most likely, with northern areas perhaps having the greater chance of rain and showers, while any drier spells are more likely in the south.

Monday 4 Sep - Monday 18 Sep

There are currently few strong signals for the first half of September, meaning that typical early-Autumnal conditions are the most likely scenario across the UK. Northern and western areas are likely to see more unsettled weather, with the greatest likelihood of drier weather being in the south and east. It is also possible that some more prolonged spells of warm weather might affect areas towards the later stages of the period. Temperatures are generally expected to be close to average at first but may become slightly above average as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Changeable but possibly drier by mid-September

Wednesday 23 August to – Sunday 27 August

Unsettled and becoming cooler

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 3 September

Further wet periods

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 17 September

Unsettled but possibly drier mid-September

Further ahead

The updated longer-range models will allow us to look further into the second half of September and we will see if they have any stronger signals for some dry weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 29 Aug - Thursday 7 Sep

Tuesday will likely bring some fine and dry weather after the clearance of any early mist and fog patches. Cloud will then move into the northwest with some light rain and drizzle, perhaps becoming heavier for a time later. The remainder of August is likely to be generally unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain affecting many areas. Potential for windy conditions, most likely in the north. Early September is likely to stay changeable, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Western areas have a higher likelihood of more frequent wet conditions, but showers are possible throughout the country. Temperatures are expected to remain close to average throughout the period, although it may feel cool under any prolonged cloud or rain.

Friday 8 Sep - Friday 22 Sep

Initially, the changeable conditions prevalent through the end of August are expected to continue. While local variations are likely, in general, the best of any settled weather is likely to be in the south and east, while northern and western areas see more in the way of cloud and showers. Towards the middle of the month, however, there is a possibility of high pressure becoming more influential, particularly in the south of the UK, which could lead to some more prolonged dry spells in this area of the country. Temperatures are likely to remain around average through early September but may become slightly above-average approaching the middle of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Changeable but probably drier by mid-September

Saturday 26 August to – Sunday 3 September

Changeable and slightly cooler than average

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 10 September

Unsettled but drier in the north than the south

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 24 September

Becoming drier overall

Further ahead

We will see if the longer-range models agree on a drier period through the middle of September and into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Changeable but probably drier by mid-September

Saturday 26 August to – Sunday 3 September

Changeable and slightly cooler than average

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 10 September

Unsettled but drier in the north than the south

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 24 September

Becoming drier overall

Further ahead

We will see if the longer-range models agree on a drier period through the middle of September and into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

With July and August largely replicating 2009, I wonder if September will also follow suit?!  Reading between the lines with latest forecasts, it could well do!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Absolutely @Donand the correct set up is there.   

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Dry and warm periods are likely in September

Saturday 2 September to – Sunday 10 September

Mostly dry and warm then unsettled later.

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 17 September

Becoming more settled again.

Monday 18 September to – Sunday 1 October

Potentially more unsettled by late September.

Further ahead

There might be clearer signs in the updated models of the pattern shifting round later in September, although the tropical Atlantic is still likely to have a say in the outcome.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[damianslaw]

This thread has died somewhat this month..

The met office forecast for first half October is going for higher pressure, hard to see at this stage how such an evolution to settled will surface, atlantic looks very strong. Mind GFS hinting at heights building to the north by month end and ridge to the west which could herald a change. 

[Theo]

17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

This thread has died somewhat this month..

The met office forecast for first half October is going for higher pressure, hard to see at this stage how such an evolution to settled will surface, atlantic looks very strong. Mind GFS hinting at heights building to the north by month end and ridge to the west which could herald a change. 

.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Theo

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Drier by early October but wet again by mid-month

Saturday 23 September to – Sunday 1 October

Often wet and windy

Monday 2 October to – Sunday 8 October

Drier for a while, mainly in the south and east

Monday 9 October to – Sunday 22 October

Turning wetter again by mid-October

Further ahead

When we next look at the models, we'll hope that there is better agreement on October's happenings; but early to mid-autumn is a notoriously difficult period for model guidance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 5 Oct - Saturday 14 Oct

Thursday is likely to see some rain or showers in the northwest, along with some stronger winds, while southeastern areas remain dry. Over the following few days, a northwest-southeast split is likely to continue. Where this split lies, however, is more uncertain than usual. Northwestern areas are most prone to further rain, while further southeast drier weather is more likely, with some early morning mist and fog patches possible here. Away from the northwest, there is potential for temperatures to become notably warm by day. Beyond this, conditions are likely to trend more widely unsettled for a time, with the wettest and windiest conditions likely towards the northwest. Temperatures are likely to trend downwards and feel cooler than earlier in the period, although remain near or above the seasonal average.

Sunday 15 Oct - Sunday 29 Oct

Changeable conditions at the start of this period may give way to a more slowly evolving weather pattern later in October. This would result in some drier, settled spells, especially towards the northwest. Some wet weather is still possible at times, most likely in the south where some spots may be wetter than usual. Temperatures are more likely to be above average than below average overall, which means that by day conditions will often feel quite pleasant in sunshine. Chilly nights are to be expected during more settled periods, bringing a risk of frost and also a chance of mist and fog patches which could be quite slow to clear from some spots.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 6 Oct - Sunday 15 Oct

A split in conditions is likely to develop across the UK early in the period. Further rain is expected in north-western areas, which could turn heavy, particularly over higher, westwards-facing ground and strong winds are also possible in these areas. Southern areas, in contrast, are likely to remain much drier with light winds and some clear spells, which could lead to some overnight patches of mist and fog. Temperatures are likely to be above average for many, especially so in the south where some unusually warm temperatures for October are possible. These temperatures are likely to trend downward toward middle of the month, with the northwest-southeast split also slowly becoming less distinct as the weather becomes generally more changeable.

Monday 16 Oct - Monday 30 Oct

There is the potential for a slightly more settled pattern of weather during the second half of October, particularly for north-western regions which have a higher likelihood than normal for some drier spells. However, some more unsettled weather is also possible with south-eastern areas likely see more rainfall than usual for late October. Temperatures in general are expected to remain above average, with some mild nights also likely, though it could feel chilly in any clear and settled overnight conditions, with occasional mist and fog patches and touches of ground frost possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 10 Oct - Thursday 19 Oct

An overall dry and warm start is likely on Tuesday, with southern parts of the UK often seeing sunnier spells, although rain is expected to arrive across the northwest. It might turn increasingly unsettled and cooler as the period progresses, with rain and showers possible in most areas, but particularly in the north and west, where some spells of heavy and persistent rain are possible at times. The spread of any heavy rain is still uncertain, but perhaps not reaching the far south and southeast. This set up is likely to continue through the rest of the period, with unsettled spells more likely in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be close to average with warm spells in the south, this accompanied with breezy conditions, especially in the northwest.

Friday 20 Oct - Friday 3 Nov

An unsettled start to the period, with potentially a wetter than average spell, but still with some drier interludes between periods of rain. Gales or severe gales possible at times, but no more than expected for the time of year. Later in the period there is a possibility that longer settled periods may develop, along with an enhanced risk of overnight fog. Temperatures likely milder than average overall with reduced risk of overnight frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 12 Oct - Saturday 21 Oct

Central and northern areas are expected to start the period with some sunny spells, but more persistent cloud and outbreaks of rain are likely towards the south. The rain is expected to spread northwards over the weekend, before showers become the prominent theme across much of the country, the heaviest and most frequent of these likely in the northwest. Temperatures slightly below normal for the time of year, although it could remain mild in the southeast, and some widespread overnight frost is possible under clearer skies. Some dry spells are possible towards the latter stages of the period, but a trend towards increasingly frequent spells of unsettled weather is more probable, which could produce generally wetter than average conditions across the UK from the around middle of the month onwards.

Sunday 22 Oct - Sunday 5 Nov

While it is likely to remain initially unsettled, with wetter than average conditions and some windy spells, there are indications for more prolonged dry and settled periods towards the end of the October and into early November. These are likely to be characterised by spells of clear and calm weather, which could bring some overnight fog in places. Temperatures are generally expected to be slightly above average for the time of year, with the chance of overnight frost lower than it would normally be for many areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[damianslaw]

Latest met office update is quite a change, reference to average or a little below average temps for the foreseeable.

Reading between the lines, suggests heights to the north and east, lower heights to the south west, trough disruption and negative aligned troughs, or cyclonic low situation on a more southerly jet. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 22 Oct - Tuesday 31 Oct

On Sunday, probably showers for many areas but especially across the east. Perhaps the best of any dry and sunny weather for the west and northwest. Showers likely to be wintry to high ground of Scotland. Winds light to moderate and rather cold for many. There is significant uncertainty for later in the period but, on balance, the block over Scandinavia is likely to weaken which will allow the influence of the Atlantic low to grow. Further showers or longer spells of rain likely with the focus more on western and southwestern areas than through the preceding days. Risk of some strong winds at times, mainly in the west and southwest. Temperatures a little higher or close to average for the time of year.

Wednesday 1 Nov - Wednesday 15 Nov

The majority of the period seems likely to be dominated by Atlantic depressions, bringing wet and windy conditions to the southwest and west. Although, spells of high pressure may bring some longer drier interludes than earlier in the period. Rainfall may be higher than average in the south and southwest at first but as the period progresses more seasonal weather patterns of wet in west, drier in east will dominate. Temperatures are more likely to be above average, but perhaps trending closer to normal. Cooler later into November when blocking high pressure and easterlies are more likely. That said, as temperatures fall, particularly over the near continent, any winds from this direction may bring colder spells as the month progresses - perhaps more likely in northern and eastern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 22 Oct - Tuesday 31 Oct

On Sunday, probably showers for many areas but especially across the east. Perhaps the best of any dry and sunny weather for the west and northwest. Showers likely to be wintry to high ground of Scotland. Winds light to moderate and rather cold for many. There is significant uncertainty for later in the period but, on balance, the block over Scandinavia is likely to weaken which will allow the influence of the Atlantic low to grow. Further showers or longer spells of rain likely with the focus more on western and southwestern areas than through the preceding days. Risk of some strong winds at times, mainly in the west and southwest. Temperatures a little higher or close to average for the time of year.

Wednesday 1 Nov - Wednesday 15 Nov

The majority of the period seems likely to be dominated by Atlantic depressions, bringing wet and windy conditions to the southwest and west. Although, spells of high pressure may bring some longer drier interludes than earlier in the period. Rainfall may be higher than average in the south and southwest at first but as the period progresses more seasonal weather patterns of wet in west, drier in east will dominate. Temperatures are more likely to be above average, but perhaps trending closer to normal. Cooler later into November when blocking high pressure and easterlies are more likely. That said, as temperatures fall, particularly over the near continent, any winds from this direction may bring colder spells as the month progresses - perhaps more likely in northern and eastern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Met Office do seem to be betting heavily on their own seasonal model, here height anomaly for November:

 

[sebastiaan1973]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Met Office do seem to be betting heavily on their own seasonal model, here height anomaly for November:

 

Are there any updates for them selves? Are they running the model more than once a month?