Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Bullseye]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.

Not sure they already backing down for February when it states likely increased chance of North or Easterly winds and also greater chance of colder conditions compared to mild (which would normally be more likely for UK, more so these days). 

Seasonal models surely can't be wrong at one month lead time, as many of them including GLOSEA and ECM seasonal have blocking for month of Feb (and March). If this was was 3-months I would say low chance but at 1-month out has to be some sort of confidence for colder weather. 

Edited January 12 by Bullseye

[Don]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Between the tons of rain on a modified Pm airmass I would think...remember the metO forecast back in 2018/19 and the cold which never came?...looks like they're already backing down. I certainly wouldn't hang your hat on what a few are saying for northern blocking for next month.

I do indeed remember their forecast for winter 2018/19.  However, next week's cold spell is (almost) certain to come off now and we have an El Nino this year combined with a E-QBO, which wasn't the case in 2019.  Also, as Bullseye says, they still think there is a greater chance of colder conditions prevailing into February.  That said, I wouldn't hang my hat on anything when it comes to weather forecasting in this country, especially nowadays!  Not an easy task!!

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

I do indeed remember their forecast for winter 2018/19.  However, next week's cold spell is (almost) certain to come off now and we have an El Nino this year combined with a E-QBO, which wasn't the case in 2019.  Also, as Bullseye says, they still think there is a greater chance of colder conditions prevailing into February.  That said, I wouldn't hang my hat on anything when it comes to weather forecasting in this country, especially nowadays!  Not an easy task!!

Well agree in part with Bullseye re February still standing firm but feel the important part is what happens after the cold spell of next week (though fairly cold currently). 'spells of rain and stronger winds' seems to be an increase of Atlantic activity as opposed to an 'interlude of slightly milder more unsettled weather for a time' - maybe just overreading? 

Yes El Nino/eQBO might play out differently to 2018/19...too much emphasis put on teleconnections now days in relation QBO, but we'll see, I'm forever the pessimist when it comes to UK and cold.

[Bricriu]

When they mention a low risk of milder weather and unsettled  in the extended that probably means we will end up going milder closer to the time. It was only a couple of days ago they were saying a brief milder period for the south which has now changed to a gradual return to milder weather seems likely. 

Edited January 12 by Bricriu

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

• Colder
• Greater snow risk
• Severe night frosts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67964527

 

[Theo]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Would you care to elaborate your thoughts please??

A response to a blunt statement like "it's all guesswork" doesn't really call for much embellishment. However, I will note that meteorologists use various tools to produce longer range  forecasts, including extended-range models, global atmospheric drivers and teleconnections. At longer and longer lead times the outlook becomes more probabilistic; of course, nobody knows  what's going to happen a fortnight to a month ahead, to address the second part of your statement, but with proper interpretation this aforementioned guidance can give decent ideas of trends in parameters like temperature, precipitation and wind, with various degrees of uncertainty depending on consistency and agreement. 

[ANYWEATHER]

28 minutes ago, Theo said:

A response to a blunt statement like "it's all guesswork" doesn't really call for much embellishment. However, I will note that meteorologists use various tools to produce longer range  forecasts, including extended-range models, global atmospheric drivers and teleconnections. At longer and longer lead times the outlook becomes more probabilistic; of course, nobody knows  what's going to happen a fortnight to a month ahead, to address the second part of your statement, but with proper interpretation this aforementioned guidance can give decent ideas of trends in parameters like temperature, precipitation and wind, with various degrees of uncertainty depending on consistency and agreement. 

Thank you for your response!  Of course , I'm fimiliar with the Meteorological tools , but at the end of the day it's all guess work, but thanks again for your elaboration.  ☺

[Theo]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

... at the end of the day  it's all guess work...

No it isn't. 

It feels like we've been here before...

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Theo said:

No it isn't. 

It feels like we've been here before...

Sorry, but let's agree to disagree......end of story..☺

[Theo]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry, but let's agree to disagree......end of story..☺

Nope. You're simply wrong. And clearly not as familiar with the tools and methods long-range meteorologists use as you claim. 

Thanks for the apology, though.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Theo said:

Nope. You're simply wrong. And clearly not as familiar with the tools and methods long-range meteorologists use as you claim. 

Thanks for the apology, though.

It seems to me that you have to have the last say!  That's fine by me ,☺

[Don]

6 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well agree in part with Bullseye re February still standing firm but feel the important part is what happens after the cold spell of next week (though fairly cold currently). 'spells of rain and stronger winds' seems to be an increase of Atlantic activity as opposed to an 'interlude of slightly milder more unsettled weather for a time' - maybe just overreading? 

Yes El Nino/eQBO might play out differently to 2018/19...too much emphasis put on teleconnections now days in relation QBO, but we'll see, I'm forever the pessimist when it comes to UK and cold.

Well, I don't blame you for that!

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Colder than average for a week, then milder

Saturday 13 January to – Sunday 21 January

Colder than normal. Snow in places. Milder later

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 28 January

Milder and unsettled. More rain than snow

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February

Possibly turning colder again in February

Further ahead

Models and atmospheric forcings give us some confidence on the upcoming pattern of cold then milder weather through the rest of January. When the next update rolls around, we will see if that remains the case, and whether there will be any more evidence of February becoming colder again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 18 Jan - Saturday 27 Jan

Still widely very cold on Thursday and Friday with the potential for severe overnight frost. Northerly winds will bring snow showers inland at times, these remaining most frequent across northern Scotland but should tend to ease later in the week. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/sunny weather. Towards the end of the week and over the course of next weekend, a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west. This will see a return to unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds across all areas at times. Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 28 Jan - Sunday 11 Feb

After a likely milder, more unsettled spell during the preceding week, towards the end of January and into early February there is again an increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but this increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance compared to normal of cold spells. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a lower chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

Week ahead

• Colder
• Risk of snow in the north
• Severe night frosts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67964529

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Absolutely zilch for the South as per usual

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Absolutely zilch for the South as per usual

Those East Asian Mountain Torques just not delivering. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Absolutely zilch for the South as per usual

You are still in the game for now!

[Paul_1978]

On 12/01/2024 at 20:06, ANYWEATHER said:

Thank you for your response!  Of course , I'm fimiliar with the Meteorological tools , but at the end of the day it's all guess work, but thanks again for your elaboration.  ☺

It’s extremely disingenuous to meteorologists to state their profession is all “guesswork”. I’m sure you don’t mean it exactly like that, and there’s better turns of phrase you could use. 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

It’s extremely disingenuous to meteorologists to state their profession is all “guesswork”. I’m sure you don’t mean it exactly like that, and there’s better turns of phrase you could use. 

As I'm working on a degree for meteorology  I totally get what you're saying, but I'm not one to mince my words and with all the teleconnections and so forth along with the rest of the Meteorological tools after a certain timeframe it is relative guess work, and that is not being in any way condescending. ☺

[Summer Sun]

Friday 19 Jan to Sunday 28 Jan

Still cold on Friday with northwesterly winds bringing further snow showers inland at times, although these should ease later in the day and turn to rain in western areas. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/ sunny weather. Over the weekend, a transition to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west, eventually bringing spells of rain and strong winds across all areas. Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance some snow. Once established, milder and wetter than normal conditions seem likely to persist through to late-January, although the south could have some drier spells of weather at times, especially later in the month, when the chance of overnight frost and fog increases once again.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[snowblind]

Not a great update.

[V for Very Cold]

Just now, snowblind said:

Not a great update.

Met office are always cautious

[Norrance]

I do hope that the mid range is not suggesting high pressure setting up to the East or South East after this week.