Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[SLEETY]

Temps looks too high in the South off an Easterly,a mild outlier for London on temps guaranteed,until the track of this low is sorted then anything after 6 days is hardly worth discussing.

The differences between gfs and the ECm on the track of this low is a joke.

[northwestsnow]

Well, we have but one EC det to cling to.

Really hoping that run has support.

If it has some  even if limited ,that will put a lot of importance on GFS 18Z as coldies cling to a December 2021 miracle,  i think we're due a stroke of luck !!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hell im happy with that gives me 10 to 15cms!!think ecm gives a mini snow event tomorrow night as well!!

Hey folks if you wanna see commitment and die hard dedication....and your ever feeling a tad down over poor model runs,just read a couple of Shaky posts....he's guaranteed to get ya having that Friday feeling.

That's you on 24hr snow duties now mate...God help the missus

Ecm a decent run for me,and by far the best of the day...next big question is...Will the other models now follow it...or will Mighty ecm have a backdown tomorrow!

Stay tuned for more riveting commentary in the days ahead....who needs the soaps when you've got this!

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Temps looks too high in the South off an Easterly,a mild outlier for London on temps guaranteed,until the track of this low is sorted then anything after 6 days is hardly worth discussing.

The differences between gfs and the ECm on the track of this low is a joke.

The air is sourced from a long way south so very plausible IMHO. In essence its the 'mouse from med' rather than the 'beast from the east'.  A ridge thrown out from the Russian high across Scandi with a warm (at 850 level) sourced easterly is not uncommon at this time of year. Such a ridge can bring cold air round the southern flank of the high in the second half of winter, but this early in the season its a poor set up for cold away from high ground.  

[Cold Winter Night]

ECM 12z was what this thread needed tonight, I think.

GFS and ECM highlight how small differences in direction early on can have massive effects later on.
The Atlantic low can move too far North and destroy the infant Scandi High, or slide into Europe on a nice NW angle à la ECM.

ECM 12z Operational doesn't fall out of thin air; it would have been in cluster 4 at 168h in this morning's EPS.

Considering the weak Atlantic tendencies so far in 2021, and models slightly underestimating heights to the North on last week's runs for today, I'd favour EC on the midterm and dismiss GFS mid- and long term for now.

[Staffmoorlands]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Temps looks too high in the South off an Easterly,a mild outlier for London on temps guaranteed,until the track of this low is sorted then anything after 6 days is hardly worth discussing.

The differences between gfs and the ECm on the track of this low is a joke.

The difference is based on how each model handles the jet stream next week. GFS could still be correct but is looking less likely now 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM and GEM going for the fridge scenario if these 8 to ten day charts come off some very exciting times

for all cold lovers on the table.A real big difference between GFS and others we wait with bated breath to 

see if this scenario hits the jackpot with the Scandinavian high spreading it’s wings west,everything crossed,

well perhaps not everything.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey folks if you wanna see commitment and die hard dedication....and your ever feeling a tad down over poor model runs,just read a couple of Shaky posts....he's guaranteed to get ya having that Friday feeling.

That's you on 24hr snow duties now mate...God help the missus

Ecm a decent run for me,and by far the best of the day...next big question is...Will the other models now follow it...or will Mighty ecm have a backdown tomorrow!

Stay tuned for more riveting commentary in the days ahead....who needs the soaps when you've got this!

She keeps tellin me to put my phone down!!!aint happening!!!matt i am defo looking forward to that gfs18z frosting now❄❄!!!

[lorenzo]

This is the fun point... 

Opens up a world of slider activity

 

GFS Op just can't behave...

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

ECM 12z was what this thread needed tonight, I think.

GFS and ECM highlight how small differences in direction early on can have massive effects later on.
The Atlantic low can move too far North and destroy the infant Scandi High, or slide into Europe on a nice NW angle à la ECM.

ECM 12z Operational doesn't fall out of thin air; it would have been in cluster 4 at 168h in this morning's EPS.

Considering the weak Atlantic tendencies so far in 2021, and models slightly underestimating heights to the North on last week's runs for today, I'd favour EC on the midterm and dismiss GFS mid- and long term for now.

I’m very inclined to agree with you siding with ECM, but it is such a knife-edge situation, that there’s a decent chance I’ll have egg on my face!  Still, always a gambler, I’ll take a punt, the block is going to hold - whether as ECM suggests is in question, but one way or another, it is going to hold and the Atlantic is not going to come rampaging through.  

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

In all my years on here, I don't think I've ever posted a gem chart. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this is where we end up. 

Well, after the gem, I did have a good feeling about the ecm. It was better than I expected though. You could see where it was heading by T96. I compared it to yesterday's T120. 

[northwestsnow]

Please don't be an outlier ,repeat after me

That is the number one model ,yes it can get things wrong ,but if I were to pick one model to face off the rest ...it would be ecm ..

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

She keeps tellin me to put my phone down!!!aint happening!!!matt i am defo looking forward to that gfs18z frosting now❄❄!!!

Sheikhy your the biggest panicker on hear your the one that's gonna give me my break down lol

Exctasy to pain every few hours is not the way forward fella! 

We need to be calm and let the mods sort it, the ecm has risen hopes a little but it changes from run to run and tomorrow it may not be here, but the gfs may show it so patience really is the key for now! 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Please don't be an outlier ,repeat after me

That is the number one model ,yes it can get things wrong ,but if I were to pick one model to face off the rest ...it would be ecm ..

 

Please be an outlier I’d say, a warm one

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Please be an outlier I’d say, a warm one

I really wouldn't rule anything out at the moment

[tight isobar]

Scrutiny on temperature plots@9/10days out is completely non-  Worthy!. Anyway the ec-op throwing up endless opportunities going forwards. And the gfs. Is clearly on drugs atm- and needs rehab sharpish . On we plod, and the resolve and want of trying still remains!. Interesting times right now

Edited December 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[Eagle Eye]

On 01/12/2021 at 19:13, sheikhy said:

She keeps tellin me to put my phone down!!!aint happening!!!matt i am defo looking forward to that gfs18z frosting now❄❄!!!

I'm on 10% charge but I'm not putting it down, I'm ready for any model run that's come by. Sorry I haven't been posting recently I've been extremely busy

[Dennis]

Hi all (winter and not winter) freaks

good signs ahead - greetings from Norway 

more clear after the weekend 

 

[Neilsouth]

As this IS related to the models, do the BBC Weather forecasts use the GFS models as I notice they keep chopping and changing with every weekly update. Just yesterday they were forecasting south westerly winds next week

Edited December 1, 2021 by Neilsouth

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m very inclined to agree with you siding with ECM, but it is such a knife-edge situation, that there’s a decent chance I’ll have egg on my face!  Still, always a gambler, I’ll take a punt, the block is going to hold - whether as ECM suggests is in question, but one way or another, it is going to hold and the Atlantic is not going to come rampaging through.  

Ah well, that's why I wrote I'd dismiss GFS for now.

But anyone trying to forecast the weather will get egg on their face once in a while.
Taking that risk is what this strange hobby of ours is all about!

ECM tonight did what I was thinking yesterday's 12z UKMO at 168h was about to do, which it did, but not convincingly so.
But I've learned never to underestimate Scandi height rises, and to pay attention when models start to blow up strange lows in the Atlantic.

[Updated_Weather]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The difference is based on how each model handles the jet stream next week. GFS could still be correct but is looking less likely now 

Think ECM would have my vote on who has this down than GFS in this scenario and not just because I’m a coldie

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

As this IS related to the models, does the BBC Weather forecasts use the GFS models as I notice they keep chopping and changing with every weekly update. Just yesterday they were forecasting south westerly winds next week

They use raw data a day old I believe not sure what model, thought it was ECM?

[Updated_Weather]

Marco Petagna has had his say on the 12z runs and this is what he has said… 

Appears that today's 12Z models could be struggling to resolve the impacts of this #winter's #weather drivers next week

La Nina and E QBO in support of blocking and cold as per EC

Warm ssts, a strong SPV and a warming planet in favour of zonal and mild patterns as per GFS

[Dunstable Snow]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Marco Petagna has had his say on the 12z runs and this is what he has said… 

Appears that today's 12Z models could be struggling to resolve the impacts of this #winter's #weather drivers next week

La Nina and E QBO in support of blocking and cold as per EC

Warm ssts, a strong SPV and a warming planet in favour of zonal and mild patterns as per GFS

Thank you for sharing- I get irritated when I read tweets like that - so exam doesn’t factor in a warming world ? How ridiculous- what it is factoring in are the exceptionally cold conditions to the north east. 

[Dunstable Snow]

Just now, Dunstable Snow said:

Thank you for sharing- I get irritated when I read tweets like that - so exam doesn’t factor in a warming world ? How ridiculous- what it is factoring in are the exceptionally cold conditions to the north east. 

ECM not exam ! Predictive text …