Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Beanz]

11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Despite all the hype about this december being different it does seem not to be the case. Any form of cold weather is happening through usual topplers or weaker form of transient blocking. Then around 10.12 game set match fór the rest od the month. This will be the case this year too I believe. The last two Also featured transient epizódes of cold during start of the month so nothing unusual, this chart is a typical look in decembers post 2013.

There’s a different thread for moans about winter (that only just started) 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, AFCBSNOW said:

This winter?!! Its the first day. I love this forum, but seriously i am so close to giving up on it now, to much hysteria, the truth is, nobody, including the models have this pegged.

I will say this once....yes its the first day of winter...and to claim we already need a major ssw to save it....is bordering on insane...have you any idea what it's like for me and others on this Forum who spend hour after hour day after day week after week to study the models...hoping for the first signs...and then to have to listen to statements saying this! It feels like at times...why bother! @Anon90 have a little patience please...if things look bad come mid January,then perhaps its justified....but right now!!!

I've already read enough posts today to make me feel like giving it neck for a few days...

Output looks very much undecided moving forward...Let's see what Ecm brings...and you know what??if its bad,there's always tomorrow...and you guessed it....Still only 2nd December.

Edited December 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

Are we witnessing the classic GFS climb down with this low?

Here’s the feature on the 0z, 6z, 12z - 12z at T144, others same time:

On 12z it is both weaker and starting to elongate.  

The block may prove to be stronger than the models are giving credit for, we’ve seen it before, some mileage in this yet, ECM will be interesting later.

 

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

Things can and will change but when most indicators seem to point towards an eventual SW/NE firing jet  I can't help but get that sinking feeling....

Certainly GFS heading that way today. Latest UKMO seems a compromise between this mornings ECM /GFS.  Things can change but seeds of doubt remain at the moment, especially post day 5 charts on offer. Models still get to grips with the jet firing up across Canada. Is it going to be ECM stand alone with its very low confidence level into next week.?

 C

Edited December 1, 2021 by carinthian

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo 168...

 

[johnholmes]

Wed 1 December: an update with the 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec = Quite a change from last Friday with now a split flow  over/e of the uk; part going ne into ridge out of n Norway/Russia and part swinging into European trough, slight mainly N’ly flow affects uk. Of note is the relatively cold 500 mb air, sourced from the Kamchatka peninsular and N Russia

Noaa = a general flow from the west (similar to Ec), sourced from quite cold latitudes even so, a bit south of how Ec shows it, but for the air over central/northern England, it shows about 540 DM and passes over the n’ern Gt Lakes, it also splits but the split occurs north of Ec so a general w’ly flow over the uk, with contour lines further north going into the marked ridging it shows out of the far north of Norway/Russia towards w’ern Greenland along with a 120 Dm +ve anomaly centred over Spitzbergen, with another +ve anomaly 42.5 N 40W, ne of the Azores. On Noaa there is much less made of the European trough; this will complicate just what surface weather patterns occur in the 6-10 day period, indeed further out as the 8-14 also looks pretty similar, for the time being.

So for surface weather in the 6-10 days they suggest a rather unsettled spell with rain/showers as lows move mostly N of 55N before rounding the slight upper ridge and then ESE into the European trough. As commented on above, the upper air is fairly cold so for the most part Pm or rPM air with central and N’ern Scotland probably staying on the cold side throughout with brief temporary influxes for southern UK of more Tm air. Snow is unlikely, I think, for any low ground south of the Peak district as the lows move from west to east.

What happens beyond 8-14 days is not for the anomaly charts.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168...

 

Would love to see that low sink but possibly a compromise between EEC southerly low and GFS more northerly track.

C

[PiscesStar]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I will say this once....yes its the first day of winter...and to claim we already need a major ssw to save it....is bordering on insane...have you any idea what it's like for me and others on this Forum who spend hour after hour day after day week after week to study the models...hoping for the first signs...and then to have to listen to statements saying this! It feels like at times...why bother! @Anon90 have a little patience please...if things look bad come mid January,then perhaps its justified....but right now!!!

I've already read enough posts today to make me feel like giving it neck for a few days...

Output looks very much undecided moving forward...Let's see what Ecm brings...and you know what??if its bad,there's always tomorrow...and you guessed it....Still only 2nd December.

I agree completely. I feel the same way. I empathise with him too... I would also say that the met office themselves don't have a handle on it either... This is the magic of the weather and the fascination it holds for me.... I'd say its an exciting hobby and intellectual interest.... Right now the charts are showing lots of winter interest... That's what keeps me going... That and the excellent input from members.  Thanks all. 

Edited December 1, 2021 by PiscesStar

[TSNWK]

300 miles south and that would a stonking chart.  And 300 miles either way has to be within envelope at such a range

Ps the ukm 168 @northwestsnow just posted

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by TSNWK

[mb018538]

The 12z is even worse. I think the problem is that a few people were guilty of completely ramping up next to nothing over the last 5 days, so people feel deflated. Just have to strap ourselves in and hope something appears. Early days!

[TSNWK]

On 01/12/2021 at 17:18, mb018538 said:

The 12z is even worse. I think the problem is that a few people were guilty of completely ramping up next to nothing over the last 5 days, so people feel deflated. Just have to strap ourselves in and hope something appears. Early days!

12z GFS is worse ukm has potential and we await ecm

[Methuselah]

For me, the longer-term outlook will remain 'up in the air' until the development (or not) of the LP associated with the jet stream exiting the USA is resolved?

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 12z is even worse. I think the problem is that a few people were guilty of completely ramping up next to nothing over the last 5 days, so people feel deflated. Just have to strap ourselves in and hope something appears. Early days!

No danger of you ramping anything up you make jules look like he's just won euro millions  !

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

GEM T174, it is not over yet!

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 12z is even worse. I think the problem is that a few people were guilty of completely ramping up next to nothing over the last 5 days, so people feel deflated. Just have to strap ourselves in and hope something appears. Early days!

I must have missed that. What "completely ramping up" do you mean? Can you give examples?

This is the model output thread. In the model output over the past week or so, there were (and still are on many GEFS 12z perturbations and also in EPS clusters) height rises near Scandinavia.
Since Scandi Highs are usually an important ingredient for winter weather, that is being closely monitored by us.

I've read every post on this thread, and I don't recall anyone saying that we were for sure about to enter a severe cold spell or something.
All agree it's going to be colder than average, and surprises are still inside the range of possibilities. That's all and nothing changed.

We are still in uncertainty about what will happen over the next week, also highlighted by that Met Office video, so no need for premature conclusions, or for ramping up a mild GFS FI.

[Eagle Eye]

Put simply we are in the early stages of the Easterly QBO and there almost always is a natural decrease of the easterlies sometime around this phase, look how similar 2009, 2012 and 2017 are to the current phase we all know what happened after 1 year in those years (I included 2012-13 because I seem to remember it as being quite good) so I don't think this Winter will be the stronger of the next 2 for snow but this is all theoretical 

Edit

I'm not saying that Winter won't happen this year I mean look at what we have already had I am merely saying next year is more likely to be better so if this year does bust there's always next year lol 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Northern Sky]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL.

So you are writing  off the last 3 weeks of  Dec??

Jules,it's the 1st of December . !!goodness me.

There's someone above writing off the whole of Winter never mind the last 3 weeks of December 

The GFS has had one of it's traditional early Winter FI runs today with huge deep low pressure systems battering the UK. It won't happen but I actually wouldn't mind it - alternating w/sw/nw wind and rain often feeling cold. I quite like that kind of weather. 

[Ali1977]

The GEM saves the whole of winter it’s back on ️️️
Lers hope the ECM follows!! 

[sheikhy]

Ecm really has to pull a gem out of somewhere this evening!!and i literally mean a GEM

[blizzard81]

In all my years on here, I don't think I've ever posted a gem chart. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this is where we end up. 

[ribster]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I must have missed that. What "completely ramping up" do you mean? Can you give examples?

This is the model output thread. In the model output over the past week or so, there were (and still are on many GEFS 12z perturbations and also in EPS clusters) height rises near Scandinavia.
Since Scandi Highs are usually an important ingredient for winter weather, that is being closely monitored by us.

I've read every post on this thread, and I don't recall anyone saying that we were for sure about to enter a severe cold spell or something.
All agree it's going to be colder than average, and surprises are still inside the range of possibilities. That's all and nothing changed.

We are still in uncertainty about what will happen over the next week, also highlighted by that Met Office video, so no need for premature conclusions, or for ramping up a mild GFS FI.

Completely and utterly agree with this, been lurking this season for a while, as I often do, and I've seen nothing of the sort. All good stuff so far, long may it continue...

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

In all my years on here, I don't think I've ever posted a gem chart. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this is where we end up. 

It is still my expectation too, although it has been a bit hairy watching the models the last couple of days.  These wedges of heights can be more stubborn than one would think even against quite energetic looking lows encroaching from the Atlantic, and the pattern can back west as we come into the reliable.  And remember, that we only have half the trop vortex on the Canadian side, that will make a difference too.  

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is still my expectation too, although it has been a bit hairy watching the models the last couple of days.  These wedges of heights can be more stubborn than one would think even against quite energetic looking lows encroaching from the Atlantic, and the pattern can back west as we come into the reliable.  And remember, that we only have half the trop vortex on the Canadian side, that will make a difference too.  

This was my mantra but I’m beginning to think that a strong Canadian tpv drifting into Greenland is unavoidable 

that’s not game over as the gem illustrates this evening but again, could do with the jet being a bit further south if we are to have systems diving into Europe on the lw trough from Canada on a nw/se trajectory 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all, GFS going for the full Monty regarding Atlantic take over while UKMO keeping a more

northwesterly flow due to low pressure heading into Scotland and keeping the U.K. mainly on the cold side

upto 168 hrs.Some very cold air to the north /northeast,my take as long as the low pressure track’s more to our 

southeast mild will be very short lived.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It's the first of December and so far this place has had more ups and down in the last 2 wks than my 10 year marriage had. And even that ended! 

Relax, drink wine, don't panic every single time the over night runs show something different to the 18z, 

Don't call time on winter because the 12z on the very first day of winter hasn't showed what we wanted!!!! 

The mods are coming to terms with the change in the atmosphere from the wedges of high to our Northeast to the strong developing vortex over Canada they will get a grip in time and probably get a middle ground. 

But please, are we really calling for a ssw to "salvage" our winter already you guys will give me another breakdown lol