Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[carinthian]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yes I’d bite your hand off for that to come off . T168 is interesting as well if the low is a bit further south could be very snowy

And day 9 looks decent too

I hope so for you guys. Its all on a knife edge. Think lots of surprises in the making. However, best look no further than 5 days and then expect the unexpected if you know what I mean. Think many on here would like the cold to dominate. Its certainly becoming a noticeable feature over Scandinavia. Lets see how it pans out !

 C

[nick sussex]

More drama !

The ECM highlights the importance of less phasing issues with shortwave energy near Norway .

The upstream troughing doesn’t get pulled too far east and there’s more energy heading se .

 

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes some snow on the UKMO 168 

Yes, looking fairly cold for the next 7 days., possibly turning very cold for a short time. Day to day features will be difficult to nail but the making of some snow surprise definitely in the offering. Day 10 has the Westerlies pushing into the cold out east, according to ECM run but thats rather late in the nature of things. Best stay at day 5 , I think.

c

[JoeShmoe]

On 01/12/2021 at 05:58, Broadmayne blizzard said:

If the meto are right àbout the polar vortex. (See Marco Petagna tweet) then you can pretty much kiss goodbye to the scandi high teases shown on recent runs. Or at least goodbye to them affecting us anyway.

Yes they are far more interested in the rapidly developing low pressures that could soon up in the Atlantic over the next 7-10 days as opposed to the very small chance of this cold pool to the NE affecting us. Saw that on the 12zs with those bowling ball lows and I bet we start to see more of them in the model output with storm B being created soon

SPV does look like getting it’s act together as head into December

[sheikhy]

Nice ecm this morning!!this aint done yet!!

[mb018538]

We may see a brief incursion of a bit of colder air, but let's be honest, the Atlantic isn't going to be denied here is it.



Those charts are about as bad as you can get for a N Hem view. Low polar heights across the entire pole.

I haven't posted for a few days as the hype train was just a bit too much for me.

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We may see a brief incursion of a bit of colder air, but let's be honest, the Atlantic isn't going to be denied here is it.



Those charts are about as bad as you can get for a N Hem view. Low polar heights across the entire pole.

I haven't posted for a few days as the hype train was just a bit too much for me.

I tend to agree, but in the short term, cold options are still on the table.  Looking further ahead into December, there are ominous signs of a very +NAO setting up - we desperately need help from the Strat to keep us in the 'cold game' in the medium term.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I tend to agree, but in the short term, cold options are still on the table.  Looking further ahead into December, there are ominous signs of a very +NAO setting up - we desperately need help from the Strat to keep us in the 'cold game' in the medium term.

You at risk of being pelted with rotten tomatoes for having a similar opinion to me there!



Strong AO and NAO combination has been lacking through pretty much the entire autumn....hence the very dry and blocked November. As usual, as soon as we start entering into territory when cold weather can really pack some punch, the Atlantic finds its feet and blasts everything away. Those two markers in tandem are never a good sign.

[That ECM]

On 01/12/2021 at 07:38, mb018538 said:

You at risk of being pelted with rotten tomatoes for having a similar opinion to me there!



Strong AO and NAO combination has been lacking through pretty much the entire autumn....hence the very dry and blocked November. As usual, as soon as we start entering into territory when cold weather can really pack some punch, the Atlantic finds its feet and blasts everything away. Those two markers in tandem are never a good sign.

Let’s look at a nice chart to get back to a happy place.

Edited December 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Dennis]

Goodmorning  1/12/21 

Enjoy the winter start/season ; well temps now isnt a cold outside but it isnt over ......

[blizzard81]

Just been comparing the ecm mean from this morning's run to yesterday morning's. Just look how much more influential the blocking is to our north east on this morning's. T168 compared to yesterday's T192. The difference is huge. Like I said last night, the models are way out of their comfort zone our neck of the woods. This is not your usual west to east zonal winter fayre. The models are struggling to say the least. Next week's weather is far from being resolved imo. 

[blizzard81]

I've seen much worse for debilt. 

[damianslaw]

As often the case people seem to be ignoring the reliable timeframe and jumping to comments on 10 day plus model runs. I'll say it again stick to the reliable max 120 hrs. Sunday proved short term developments 24 hrs pop up out of nowhere. 

The key feature is the NW-SE aligned jet. La Nina base state will aid a more amplified flow with azores high in a situ to stay amplified though not consistently. Low heights into Europe also key.

[Yarmy]

People keep going on about the Atlantic blasting through, but the single defining characteristic of recent GFS op runs in the outer reaches (i.e Day 10 onwards) is the precise opposite of that. I think people just immediately think +NAO = zonal, stormy and wet. Instead (just as a single frame example), we have this as a typical synoptic:

That's a very positive NAO and AO, but it is very dry and (for the most part) bone-chillingly cold at the surface across thousands of miles of continental Europe and Asia.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,just to show not to take charts over 120 hrs seriously fax chart 120 hrs yesterday showed pin ball

low 945 mb over the midlands.Today’s 96 hrs fax chart shows it over Scotland that in itself tells you everything 

keep to 120 hrs max but even that can change as shown above.

[TSNWK]

On 01/12/2021 at 09:17, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,just to show not to take charts over 120 hrs seriously fax chart 120 hrs yesterday showed pin ball

low 945 mb over the midlands.Today’s 96 hrs fax chart shows it over Scotland that in itself tells you everything 

keep to 120 hrs max but even that can change as shown above.

Is that a bad thing though if that low had trended north.

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,just to show not to take charts over 120 hrs seriously fax chart 120 hrs yesterday showed pin ball

low 945 mb over the midlands.Today’s 96 hrs fax chart shows it over Scotland that in itself tells you everything 

keep to 120 hrs max but even that can change as shown above.

Yep. And this is the latest fax chart for Saturday. Far removed from the one a couple of days ago. 

Edited December 1, 2021 by blizzard81

[Battleground Snow]

Latest icon just about keeps chances of decent scandi high, we are running out of time, but anything 96+ hours can change still

00z v 06z

[sheikhy]

Looks like no joy from 06z as well!norway shortwave aint going no where now!!might even see a flatter ecm this evening!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

39 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Latest icon just about keeps chances of decent scandi high, we are running out of time, but anything 96+ hours can change still

00z v 06z

I wouldn't say 3 months left is running out of time mate

Those who think we are in trouble for December regarding the strengthening vortex....dont be so sure! Rule nothing out in this complex situation.

The ens show we have a multitude of possibilities on the table..they are certainly not all singing from the same hymn sheet!

And good people I would just like to wish you a merry Xmas month...yes silly season begins today...and we have a month of it to endure.

Have fun.

@sheikhyyour jumping the gun there mate by assuming ECM may become flatter...Still along way to go.

Edited December 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Battleground Snow]

Deep low still moddled to hit us, but I still don't believe the models, even at relatively short range

 

[That ECM]

Gap between the 2 lows? O6z step towards ecm for me.

Edited December 1, 2021 by That ECM

[IDO]

You can see where GFS and ECM diverge, between D5-D6:

GFS 06z>  ECM 0z> 

GFS rides the mini-ridge to the SE whilst the ECM sends the low SE, and there lies FI. The GFS has that low part of the vortex whereas ECM has it detached allowing it to break SE. Which is the correct solution?

[Updated_Weather]

Still a few members on the MOGREPS that support ECM with a colder easterly flow.. EPS the same. 
seems all over the place on what the outcome will be. All is not lost yet!

[Beanz]

There really are some desperate comments coming through in here this morning.  Throw away comments on the models with no reference to the period are useless to anybody reading.  

Winter started today, March is a long way off - game on!!