Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I would argue none of those heights are useful enough to be of any benefit to us here. But they should keep it somewhat dry.

Keeps a zonal affair out of the question...with a strong pv towards the NW,we need some kind of Blocking to the E/NE...also good to see low Heights in the right places...beggars can't be choosers,but I understand some on here want sypnotics more suited to Alaska and the NW territories!

Edited November 30, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Guys what happened to the NW -SE jet , is it now not happening as the GFS looks awful for any snow chances 

More runs needed for now?

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

Isn't that somewhat different to his tweet earlier when he was talking about the potential for further cold outbreaks during the next few weeks?!

If he's the guy behind the met office updates. I'm bamboozled because it contradicts today's updates. Tweets to me are like throw away comments you make and forget you've made them..

 

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, johncam said:

Guys what happened to the NW -SE jet , is it now not happening as the GFS looks awful for any snow chances 

Within the reliable and semi reliable we maintain a NW-SE jet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 30/11/2021 at 23:09, Uncertainy said:

Really Mike? I’ve seen patterns I’ve wanted reversed before but not that one. Of course the Arctic /Greenland  profile is going to be purple. The SPV is getting so strong some coupling is inevitable.
 

This from Judah Cohen shows the coupling getting together now. 

The best we can hope for, both for now and beyond, is a strong NEern block to hold it back. And, eventually, send it packing.  Without that block it’s this:

And it took till SPRING to reset that pattern.

We both come on here in January and February mate. We’ll want cold weather then too, more so in my case. Just trust me on this one that we need these building blocks to secure a serious cold spell to really enjoy in those months. It will be worth the wait!

The control run isn't a world apart from that 2015 chart. I wouldn't look! I think we're seeing coupling of the strat and trop, which has come at the worst possible time. I think that Scandi HP was a goer tbh.

[Mike Poole]

Well this is an utterly bizarre end to the GFS 18z at T384:

Cold (surface) for sure…but I’m so not convinced by this evolution, it is hardly worth worrying about whether it might bring forth a SSW or not, it is laughable.  

Edited November 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Everyone worrying about the PV now, when it’s Jan and Feb that usually deliver the beasts. December 2010 came to an abrupt end by the start of Jan, and the rest was history. The main common denominator with the historical cold winters is a SSW and an Easterly QBO. The latter is already in place, we just need to set the strat on fire preferably by the end of December. SSW’s as I’ve learnt are more likely to occur under an Easterly QBO also. Patience. 

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs= rubbish 

 

UKMO.. bad but not as maybe

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs surprising isn’t mild but not cold enough for snow.. probably not full of westerly to nw with low pressure.. 

[SLEETY]

Time to kiss goodbye to any easterly im afraid.Ukmo pushes low right across now,gf s nt much different,yes fl looks blocked,so what,it could show 1070 Siberian High untill they get to plus 96 hours they dont exist!

Nothing unusual though for start of December with unsettled westerly driven weather

Only 1st December  so 3 months of chasing left!

Best to leave model chasing for a couple of weeks though if you ask me,not interested in mobile westerly crud!

Edited December 1, 2021 by SLEETY

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, I agree. Even out to 96t the models cannot agree on the positioning of the wave to cross the British over the weekend coming. Yes, there is still an abundance of cold air to the NE out to day 10 . Yes, most of the British Isles according to the models are looking at rather cold unsettled conditions to prevail during the period. Very volatile in mine with NH hemisphere jet profiles all over the place from day to day.

C

 

Morning all. Not a bad outlook from UKMO run this morning. Keeps the British Isles in a mostly rather cold regime for most of the next 7 days. The extended also shows the prospect of some snow  that could develop in the flow predicted( chart below ) Oh, GFS  starts cold,then mild  and then back to a drier colder prospects in the longer term but the big cold block out to the NE never gets shunted away. So best again possibly look no further than 5 days or so. In the meanwhile plenty of surprises in the making, I think.

All the best from a snowbound Austria,

Edited December 1, 2021 by carinthian

[Georgina]

On 01/12/2021 at 05:54, carinthian said:

Morning all. Not a bad outlook from UKMO run this morning. Keeps the British Isles in a mostly rather cold regime for most of the next 7 days. The extended also shows the prospect of some snow  that can develop in the flow predicted( chart below ) Oh, GFS  starts cold,then mild  and then back to a drier colder prospects in the longer term but the big cold block out to the NE never gets shunted away. So best again possibly look no further than 5 days or so. In the meanwhile plenty of surprises in the making, I think.

All the best from a snowbound Austria,

It’s showing snow for my area tomorrow night on the radar , plenty of surprises just like you said

[Chesil View]

If the meto are right àbout the polar vortex. (See Marco Petagna tweet) then you can pretty much kiss goodbye to the scandi high teases shown on recent runs. Or at least goodbye to them affecting us anyway.

[carinthian]

10 minutes ago, Georgina said:

It’s showing snow for my area tomorrow night on the radar , plenty of surprises just like you said

Yes Georgina, if the timing is correct could be associated with the front on the UKMO fax chart below crossing Northern England.

C

[That ECM]

T120 all 3 this morning.  Complicated. But I’m liking the ecm. T144 make a forecast for us based on them 3.

Edited December 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T120 all 3 this morning.  Complicated. But I’m liking the ecm.

GEM is also interesting 

[clark3r]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Time to kiss goodbye to any easterly im afraid.Ukmo pushes low right across now,gf s nt much different,yes fl looks blocked,so what,it could show 1070 Siberian High untill they get to plus 96 hours they dont exist!

Nothing unusual though for start of December with unsettled westerly driven weather

Only 1st December  so 3 months of chasing left!

Best to leave model chasing for a couple of weeks though if you ask me,not interested in mobile westerly crud!

Have to agree with you sleety

[carinthian]

48 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Not a bad outlook from UKMO run this morning. Keeps the British Isles in a mostly rather cold regime for most of the next 7 days. The extended also shows the prospect of some snow  that could develop in the flow predicted( chart below ) Oh, GFS  starts cold,then mild  and then back to a drier colder prospects in the longer term but the big cold block out to the NE never gets shunted away. So best again possibly look no further than 5 days or so. In the meanwhile plenty of surprises in the making, I think.

All the best from a snowbound Austria,

ECM delivers a nice little feature below . Similar profile shown on the latest UKMO extended at 168t but with a deeper low in circulation. As I report above, plenty of surprises in the making.

C

Edited December 1, 2021 by carinthian

[ICE COLD]

T192 not to bad on the ECM

[Mark Smithy]

Well a very interesting development on this morning's UKMO at the T128 to T144 marker.

From this:

To this: 

I'm referring to that mid-Atlantic ridge forming. 

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T192 not to bad on the ECM

Almost winter wonderland charts for you folk in the SE ! 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, carinthian said:

Almost winter wonderland charts for you folk in the SE ! 

Yes I’d bite your hand off for that to come off . T168 is interesting as well if the low is a bit further south could be very snowy

And day 9 looks decent too

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM mainly cold throughout,just looks very messy not a great operational.

[tight isobar]

Model mayhem continues! @cross suites. The ecm this morning is more than of interest, and highlights further the knife edge evolution going forwards.. don’t write anything off ... just yet

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

ECM delivers a nice little feature below . Similar profile shown on the latest UKMO extended at 168t but with a deeper low in circulation. As I report above, plenty of surprises in the making.

C

Yes some snow on the UKMO 168