Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[That ECM]

On 01/12/2021 at 17:44, Mike Poole said:

It is still my expectation too, although it has been a bit hairy watching the models the last couple of days.  These wedges of heights can be more stubborn than one would think even against quite energetic looking lows encroaching from the Atlantic, and the pattern can back west as we come into the reliable.  And remember, that we only have half the trop vortex on the Canadian side, that will make a difference too.  

This is mine.

Edited December 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Mike Poole]

OK ECM 12z time, get strapped in.  I’m going to be comparing the run with the GEM tonight for what should be obvious reasons!

[Mapantz]

Let's stop with the nit-picking of other posts please?!

Any more posts suggesting winter is a write off will be put straight in to the bin.  If any more occur, then please don't reply to them, just report the post you think is unnecessary, and someone from the team will deal with it.

As you were.. 

[Man With Beard]

Bit of bonkers from the GFS here at T270, though nothing new for this model. What's the UK lowest pressure record?

 

[mb018538]

I will happily join in and ramp up a cold spell if a proper one appears, don’t you worry about that!
I’m more interested in mid month and beyond with a possible pressure rise and whatever that may lead to. Certainly easier to get to cold solutions when high pressure is around, as it usually means blocked patterns are dominating.

For now I shall return under my rock where the majority of the winter crew would rather I went!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

I will happily join in and ramp up a cold spell if a proper one appears, don’t you worry about that!
I’m more interested in mid month and beyond with a possible pressure rise and whatever that may lead to. Certainly easier to get to cold solutions when high pressure is around, as it usually means blocked patterns are dominating.

For now I shall return under my rock where the majority of the winter crew would rather I went!

I'm only kidding

I like your posts BTW...

[northwestsnow]

Can't help but feel ' what if '...

ec 72

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 vs GEM

Early thoughts are that the ECM is more amplified.  You can see the two halves of the trop vortex, this is as they are now-ish +T96.  This block has to hold off one half of the trop vortex energy.  

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 vs GEM

Early thoughts are that the ECM is more amplified.  You can see the two halves of the trop vortex, this is as they are now-ish +T96.  This block has to hold off one half of the trop vortex energy.  

Look quite similar? No?

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 vs GEM:

ECM holds the block better against the first incursion from the Atlantic.  The second ridge is where GEM makes its gain around T168.  ECM looking promising so far.  

[northwestsnow]

ECM !!!!!

[Mucka]

So as ECM trundles out, a couple of thoughts.

We have never seen classic Winter blocking setting up but there was hope of it doing so which the models as yet have not fulfilled.

GFS today is massively progressive as is any run showing the blocking to the NE having no influence over our weather by day 6/7

Blocking will remain through that period closer to our shores I think with more energy being forced SE rather than over the top flattening things.

Fully expect this ECM run to show that and that so don't take GFS to heart right now.

Not saying we will get classic Winter blocking anytime soon, just that we will remain in the game for some time with further marginal snow chances

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T120 is really, really close to something wintry

[seabreeze86]

My word this is not far away from something very decent at 120 hrs and nothing like the GFS

[bluearmy]

low heights to our north will attract the Canadian trough (but we won’t see it because will be T132 

[TSNWK]

On 01/12/2021 at 18:27, bluearmy said:

low heights to our north will attract the Canadian trough (but we won’t see it because will be T132 

Please for once be wrong

[sheikhy]

And what does the ecm go and do❄

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

low heights to our north will attract the Canadian trough (but we won’t see it because will be T132 

Reckon you got that in a minute before the T144 so fair play!

Still second ridge should reset it.  And it does look an overblown low, we are at T144 now, so some real uncertainty in the mix now!

Edited December 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Atlantic vs block at its finest. 

[Uncertainty]

 

How much of that trough is going to deconstruct? We’re really not very far from that emerging mid Atlantic ridge linking up with the NEern heights? 
 

Also, longer term, banking this FI GEFS

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's charts like these where you just know your in the game...look at the 850s to the NE/E...

Me liking this alot....yes we can see the uncertainty...but this very much puts us in a game that gfs put us in a while back,before largely dropping the idea altogether.

Edited December 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Please for once be wrong

It’s what we saw on the 00z run - pretty good consistency from ec op

 The low to the west is deeper and larger than the 00z run - we would expect it to therefore head in further north than the 00z run - if it does disrupt and stretch T144/T168 then that’s v good for coldies 

so let’s wait and see

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM/UKMO definitely show another shot of getting an area of high pressure to the north around the middle of next week as we see another wave of Atlantic heights. The ECM teases the chance that the chilly/cold conditions this weekend could hang on if the amplification we see is a little stronger than currently modelled.

Not sure on how to read the day 6 ECM, there is likely to be an active front moving east with strong southerly winds, which will be raw with cold temperatures at the surface. The cold air is never far away (just in the North Sea and arguably remains over a good part of Scotland up to day 7 is the low tracks ESE across southern England/Northern France.

Edited December 1, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Will do me!

[Ali1977]

This must be a nightmare for the forecasters, as per the 10 day METO update highlighted!! I wonder if the ENS will follow this !!