Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Premiere Neige]

I have seen a few posts saying that the models don't know how to handle the energy exiting North America which is causing them to struggle.

Over the weekend parts of Scandinavia had some of their lowest November temperatures since the 1950's, widely -25 to -35c. Could it also be that the models are struggling with the effects of this too?

Just a thought and it might be a load of ballcocks but....

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

Will do me!

The low dropping se

[TSNWK]

On 01/12/2021 at 18:35, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

Will do me!

Yep . Take that.  Considering.. 

[bluearmy]

Interesting! 

[tight isobar]

If we can get a suppression of med heights at this range- then we have a much better avenue to draw in better low upper airs- and with engaging energy the snow potential is vast And would be very notable!!!!

[Ali1977]

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, it is amazing how so much can happen in these 24 hour timesteps:

I’m not bothered about the final 2 frames, well into FI.  Well what a run .  And the important changes were quite early on T96-T120, It was better than the best of the rest (GEM) even by that point.  Roll on the ensembles…and the 0z’s…

Edited December 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

I think the ecm might have just saved us at the last second!!amazing come back!!

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

I think the ecm might have just saved us at the last second!!amazing come back!!

Cold 850s at 192, seeing the ENS temps later will give us a good idea on support!! 

[tight isobar]

The ecm hears me @192 . The draw would be seriously on by now @- 850hpa being absorbed

Edited December 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

And the good thing is it carries the trend from the 00z and even better!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think the ecm might have just saved us at the last second!!amazing come back!!

hi sheikhy was it as good as a few days back? i didnt think was that good looking at the uppers

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Good effort and enough for snow showers in the north east. Taking At face value it would be nicer to have that Iberian low further east as the cold air could struggle to reach the far south.

Still a real headache where we seems to be having conflicting signals causing wild swings in the output. Some wanting to promote a more blocked pattern whilst there is also evidence that the strat polar vortex might be coupling with the lower layer in the coming week or so (Ergo a strengthening lobe to the north west).

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, it is amazing how so much can happen in these 24 hour timesteps:

I’m not bothered about the final 2 frames, well into FI.  Well what a run .  And the important changes were quite early on T96-T120, It was better than the best of the rest (GEM) even by that point.  Roll on the ensembles…and the 0z’s…

mike it wasnt a great run if im honest,it was too transient and rather messy.also the uppers weren that great

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hi sheikhy was it as good as a few days back? i didnt think was that good looking at the uppers

No but looks like we moving back towards that and the scandi heights are stronger!!!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

mike it wasnt a great run if im honest,it was too transient and rather messy.also the uppers weren that great

I presume you are talking about the GEM?  Well it was the best on offer so far, way better than ICON, GFS and UKMO, but ECM does seem to be leading the way here, which it is entitled to do once in a while, as it is the best verifying model. 

[bluearmy]

 

illustration at day nine that an onshore flow is tricky without deep cold uppers  - Too much modification of temps of a warm n sea 

[frosty ground]

Just now, bluearmy said:

 

illustration at day nine that an onshore flow is tricky without deep cold uppers  - Too much modification of temps of a warm n sea 

Looks more than an onshore wind issue for those temps 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I presume you are talking about the GEM?  Well it was the best on offer so far, way better than ICON, GFS and UKMO, but ECM does seem to be leading the way here, which it is entitled to do once in a while, as it is the best verifying model. 

no i was talking about the ECM.but ok your more experienced then me in any case.

[Tim Bland]

Snow lovers in Wales & North west will be happy though  

[Snowman.]

50 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of bonkers from the GFS here at T270, though nothing new for this model. What's the UK lowest pressure record?

 

925.6 mb

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow lovers in Wales & North west will be happy though  

Hell im happy with that gives me 10 to 15cms!!think ecm gives a mini snow event tomorrow night as well!!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

no i was talking about the ECM.but ok your more experienced then me in any case.

OK, both ECM and GEM do one thing that is important, and that is set up a block that can hold off the Atlantic.  Don’t worry about the T216+ timescale, because frankly, there is so much uncertainty at the earlier timescales that this evolution is just fantasy.  ECM 12z is a good run, as far as you believe it is credible (T144).  The ensembles /clusters might help with the period beyond that but not many days beyond it.  

[Man With Beard]

The ECM tonight really does make a mockery of winter's over suggestions. There are times you can write off the next 14 days but this isn't one of them. The Atlantic still has an appetite to disrupt south, and we have heights to the north. When that's the case, you're always in the game. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks more than an onshore wind issue for those temps 

Look at temps over Belgium 

a good 4c lower 

we will have modification over the sea track 

uppers the same east to west but the west sees snowfall rather than rainfall. 

pointless debating a day 9 chart but just illustrating how difficult it is to get widespread snowfall 

a good ecm op for coldies