Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[tight isobar]

Ukmo/gfs/gem.@144. all on the same page - just variations on the theme.. with regard the dartboard LP, so we are definitely gaining , and beginning to untangle the wire . The nxt2 days will be telling for going deeper into December!.. and hold tight this is going to be a white knuckle ride I think..!!!

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The Canadian modelling the split flow well. And highlights the uk literally on boundary line. And noting why the models are struggling from this juncture,with make or fake Synoptics. Still a few days of deciphering on this. And the outcome could be vastly different by the time we begin to achieve some sort of cross model agreement.96 hrs is probably about where to look for certification. After atm it’s baby gabble!- on we march      Edit; the Canadian also firing up the intense system, we are slowly gaining now headed towards some ironing out via the models.. the weekend I think will be the maker/breaker for going forwards. 

Morning Friend.. Hoping for the "maker" so to speak and deffo had my fill of "breakers" this year and I do t mean weather related!!  

[PiscesStar]

Ha é to say to my eye gfs generates a huge low which draws up milder air... Can't see how this helps at all?? 

[Bradowl]

On 02/12/2021 at 05:25, PiscesStar said:

Ha é to say to my eye gfs generates a huge low which draws up milder air... Can't see how this helps at all?? 

IF it drifts south east it should draw down colder air as it slides to South of UK. 

[jules216]

All the talk back in October about -NAO December and weaker vortex in seasonal models and how good they verify and that range,correlation maps on Twitter etc. Now the reality: start of the month and All NAO,AO and 10hPa uwind going in to pluses big time as per recent december climo. Yet MJo going in to phase 7,reality IT makes no difference where its heading = a Sceuroblock and rather large +NAO anomaly. Some will say Well its LA Nina but La Ninas in past didnt produce Well above average temps in autumn with 0 Snow in Continental Európe like the past 2 Ninas. I think its the Haddley Cell expansion that overrides everything, we Can see in the modeling every tíme at 120+hr they advocate lows diving way more South then reality as the subtropical highs are pushing back,its that 5°north difference that drives the uppers from being -5 and Snow in to -1 and rain, this Has Been the case again now. There was no mention in models about rain fór this weekend but now models suddenly show low pressure stuck too far west and dont clear SE as they used to because this high pressure waiting from SE Europe, never have Seen this so prevelant in my life the past few decembers.

[lassie23]

18 minutes ago, jules216 said:

All the talk back in October about -NAO December and weaker vortex in seasonal models and how good they verify and that range,correlation maps on Twitter etc. Now the reality: start of the month and All NAO,AO and 10hPa uwind going in to pluses big time as per recent december climo. Yet MJo going in to phase 7,reality IT makes no difference where its heading = a Sceuroblock and rather large +NAO anomaly. Some will say Well its LA Nina but La Ninas in past didnt produce Well above average temps in autumn with 0 Snow in Continental Európe like the past 2 Ninas. I think its the Haddley Cell expansion that overrides everything, we Can see in the modeling every tíme at 120+hr they advocate lows diving way more South then reality as the subtropical highs are pushing back,its that 5°north difference that drives the uppers from being -5 and Snow in to -1 and rain, this Has Been the case again now. There was no mention in models about rain fór this weekend but now models suddenly show low pressure stuck too far west and dont clear SE as they used to because this high pressure waiting from SE Europe, never have Seen this so prevelant in my life the past few decembers.

Oh no, are the models now throwing out the usual December garbage? It is actually snowing in London at the moment.

[tight isobar]

On 02/12/2021 at 06:04, lassie23 said:

Oh no, are the models now throwing out the usual December garbage? It is actually snowing in London at the moment.

 Yep ina heavy fall here @ Uxbridge accumulation taking place to all surfaces!

Edited December 2, 2021 by tight isobar

[Guest]

On 02/12/2021 at 06:04, lassie23 said:

Oh no, are the models now throwing out the usual December garbage?

No, no they're not. Still plenty of interest and we can't just presume a return to westerlies and a +NAO for this month when we have such notable differences run to run and, whether that be across the model output or even within one models output!

This dartboard low that is forecast to blow more cobwebs away needs pinning down first, as we'll likely see a broad range of scenarios once that low clears with an above-average degree of uncertainty post +144 at the moment.

[mountain shadow]

GFS and UKMO are dire for coldies with the GFS especially bad.

December is increasingly looking like a goner unless things change quickly.

[tight isobar]

Ec@120 And there's our system again!!..

Edited December 2, 2021 by tight isobar

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec@120 And there's our system again!!..

yes becoming quite annoying,except there are possibly 2 systems this time looking at 120.could be trough desruption?

[That ECM]

No thanks. Looks destructive.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

No thanks. Looks destructive.

that would produce very dangerous weather i would imagine.northern ireland western scotland

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM this morning a tad more progressive and as such the cold air is shunted far enough east to introduce less cold air across the whole of the U.K. 

Good agreement between the ECM and UKMO for a large low to slowly track towards the U.K. next week with rain and strong winds. This one will likely become slow moving.

   

Edited December 2, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Lukesluckybunch]

so then where are we going at 168.looks very flat this run,horrid!and there we have it no real player here or no sign of any type of blocking.just a complete mess

Edited December 2, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch

[tight isobar]

Ec@144 and mirrors it’s counterparts!@ blow up LP, this will insure now be the crossover point- where the deciphering of height placement- and design of evolution will transpire ! A starting point for model resolve?!- I reckon so!!

[Ali1977]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS and UKMO are dire for coldies with the GFS especially bad.

December is increasingly looking like a goner unless things change quickly.

ECM has dropped the Easterly, I think we know where this will head now!! A period of zonal stuff I imagine!! Rather now than later later in Dec though, so let’s hope we’re quickly tracking something colder further into Dec!! 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM has dropped the Easterly, I think we know where this will head now!! A period of zonal stuff I imagine!! Rather now than later later in Dec now - let’s hope we re quickly tracing something colder further into Dec!! 

yes i agree,a real southerly influence here!everything just seems to want to shunt east and north,rather then east and south!

Edited December 2, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch

[tight isobar]

On 02/12/2021 at 06:37, Ali1977 said:

ECM has dropped the Easterly, I think we know where this will head now!! A period of zonal stuff I imagine!! Rather now than later later in Dec now - let’s hope we re quickly tracing something colder further into Dec!! 

Given the circumstances/situation evolving with that ejected blow up low, that’s a little premature. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to se a rattle throw of the fore mentioned @lp then shallow heights buildings quickly benind it- to the north eastern quadrant, it’s evolutionary feasible, and imo probable!

[Lukesluckybunch]

192 on the yesterdays 12z was showing a easterly of some sorts,now we have total switch around showing westerly!unbelievable

[offerman]

55 minutes ago, jules216 said:

All the talk back in October about -NAO December and weaker vortex in seasonal models and how good they verify and that range,correlation maps on Twitter etc. Now the reality: start of the month and All NAO,AO and 10hPa uwind going in to pluses big time as per recent december climo. Yet MJo going in to phase 7,reality IT makes no difference where its heading = a Sceuroblock and rather large +NAO anomaly. Some will say Well its LA Nina but La Ninas in past didnt produce Well above average temps in autumn with 0 Snow in Continental Európe like the past 2 Ninas. I think its the Haddley Cell expansion that overrides everything, we Can see in the modeling every tíme at 120+hr they advocate lows diving way more South then reality as the subtropical highs are pushing back,its that 5°north difference that drives the uppers from being -5 and Snow in to -1 and rain, this Has Been the case again now. There was no mention in models about rain fór this weekend but now models suddenly show low pressure stuck too far west and dont clear SE as they used to because this high pressure waiting from SE Europe, never have Seen this so prevelant in my life the past few decembers.

Excellent post Jules. I mentioned this a few times about the Hadley cell being too strong and incorrect orientation for cold prolonged weather. This is all to often destroys our chances of cold due to it extending and strengthening zonal type. 

i know weather patterns around the globe play a part but small one imho as often comes back to relatively local influences . What affects us most is the Haley cell Azores, and euro slug. 
 

[tight isobar]

On 02/12/2021 at 06:44, Lukesluckybunch said:

192 on the yesterdays 12z was showing a easterly of some sorts,now we have total switch around showing westerly!unbelievable

Which is fully expected this far out - remember-@144 hrs we have almost vertical agreement. Regarding that Atlantic energy inbound. After that it’s anyone’s guess, and an array of possible sequences are on the table. 

[Dennis]

Goofmorning From Norway

 

Icon0z charts

 

[tight isobar]

The possible slide/draw -engage possibilities are mouth watering going forwards, and even now are borderline for weather type, and can only get more interesting as we gain! Plenty to be hopeful for this morning

[SLEETY]

On 02/12/2021 at 06:48, tight isobar said:

Which is fully expected this far out - remember-@144 hrs we have almost vertical agreement. Regarding that Atlantic energy inbound. After that it’s anyone’s guess, and an array of possible sequences are on the table. 

Exactly  way too much going on to know what will happen, exactly when that low gets nearer to UK, nevermind afterwards

Models after 144 should be ignored at the moment, as you say, but still usual posters take later ouput as gospel day after day!! 

 

Look how much Ecm has changed its later ouput in 12 hours for example, utterly pointless looking at later ouput at moment! 

Edited December 2, 2021 by SLEETY