Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Ali1977]

You watch the EC ENS being the coldest suite yet, just to keep the slightest glimmer of hope for next week - very unlikely though 

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

192 on the yesterdays 12z was showing a easterly of some sorts,now we have total switch around showing westerly!unbelievable

Not really. At best we were only ever likely to see a surface Scandi high that temporarily wafted a bit of colder air our way before being brushed aside.

I suggest people look a bit further ahead. MJO moving into phase 7, and GFS ensembles trending towards high pressure around mid December.
Tends to favour blocking in quite favourable locations again. Just in time for xmas....

[Danns]

As a relative newbie, it’s really difficult to keep up with the chopping and changing of the models never mind the in one camp or the other posters. Need to remember at one stage the general consensus of the models circa 144 was some sort of Scandi high pressure. Still a lot to sort out and by no means the end of an entire month.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Danns

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You watch the EC ENS being the coldest suite yet, just to keep the slightest glimmer of hope for next week - very unlikely though 

Could there still be a chance of a flip back to cold or as ship sunk.

[Chesil View]

Commenting purely on the ec det run one cn only comment that it has moved to the gfs solution buy as others have said there is still a lot if uncertainty beyond 96hrs

[Ali1977]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Could there still be a chance of a flip back to cold or as ship sunk.

I doubt it, but there’s still a possibility that any Zonal period Is short lived, a reset period before the MJO give us coldies a help - this would be good heading further into Dec and towards Xmas!! Maybe it’s a time to keep an eye on FI ENS suites and the METO along range changing their tone!! 

 

[That ECM]

On 02/12/2021 at 07:03, SLEETY said:

Exactly  way too much going on to know what will happen, exactly when that low gets nearer to UK, nevermind afterwards

Models after 144 should be ignored at the moment, as you say, but still usual posters take later ouput as gospel day after day!! 

 

Look how much Ecm has changed its later ouput in 12 hours for example, utterly pointless looking at later ouput at moment! 

Agree with you and have often said 120 plus is JFF. However, forgetting specific detail todays output does suggest that the low will go ne not se which is a disappointment in the short term.  

[knocker]

In the medium term the key features remain the tpv and quite strong jet across the Atlantic and the Urals/Europe ridge. How muich influence the latter exerts is pretty much key to the detail during this period

Meanwhile some snow down to quite low levels along the leading edge of the warm front tonight

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not really. At best we were only ever likely to see a surface Scandi high that temporarily wafted a bit of colder air our way before being brushed aside.

I suggest people look a bit further ahead. MJO moving into phase 7, and GFS ensembles trending towards high pressure around mid December.
Tends to favour blocking in quite favourable locations again. Just in time for xmas....

Agreed, the focus should be mid-month onward - plenty of options for something colder.  Blocking signal to the east and north east has remained strong and there are tentative signs of that spreading westwards in the medium term.  The ECM sub-seasonal will potentially give us some clues later...

[sheikhy]

Im sorry but theres no sugar coatin this but it looks dire this morning!!!i know there some in here who try to put a positive spin on here and kudos to them but facts are its not looking good at all on the 00zs!!!ecm has been dire gfs has been dire both models have not performed well at all!!lets enjoy the next 5 days of seasonal weather after that we in for some boring wind and rain lol!

[Sweatyman]

Did say it would be a load of crud on the 00z s 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Did say it would be a load of crud on the 00z s 

We just cant seem to get any consistancy!!and yeh the 00zs always seem to be worse and i dont think its a mental thing i think its defo something that seems to be real lol!dont know why!!

[carinthian]

Morning all , still the snow piles up over here. Almost non stop for 3 days ! It would appear the writing is on the wall as the 3 main models have that dart board low in the wrong spot for us many seeking a cold outlook. But is it ? I am not sure yet as I would expect some more volatility in charts coming out for early next week. So in the short term, the UKMO fax chart below shows quite a wintry weekend for many to enjoy throughout the British Isles with frost and prospects of some snow in places, almost hard to pin down looking at that chart. Certainly, warnings of heavy snow likely in the Alpine Regions. Then early next week becomes interesting as the Atlantic gears up a notch but even by this coming weekend  the dartboard potential low has yet to form or show ( re -chart below ). So lets give it a couple of more days before throwing in the towel as I think a almighty battle with the different types in air mass could yet evolve.

 C

Edited December 2, 2021 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

The cold runs have the pattern too far north but even they look isolated this morning ……..

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The cold runs have the pattern too far north but even they look isolated this morning ……..

Ouch.

Just to much forcing from that PV right now seemingly..

Expecting eps to look meh this morning on the back of that Blue...

Period of mobility looks certain..

Another interesting ec 46 .. hopefully with some mjo help we may see things settle down as we head towards Christmas ,perhaps.

 

[markw2680]

I still don’t think the models have the correct handle of all this. That low pressure that’s so over blown if you ask me that will become much weaker IMO so will have a knock in effect afterwards. Far to many knee jerk remarks in here which to be honest is quite annoying. Early December is showing much more promise this year than normal

[jules216]

If you are hoping for MJO/Rossby Wave pattern response,this is how IT looks around run Up and Christimas periód. I fully expect something similar to happen

[markw2680]

29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im sorry but theres no sugar coatin this but it looks dire this morning!!!i know there some in here who try to put a positive spin on here and kudos to them but facts are its not looking good at all on the 00zs!!!ecm has been dire gfs has been dire both models have not performed well at all!!lets enjoy the next 5 days of seasonal weather after that we in for some boring wind and rain lol!

So that’s it then done deal? Wind and rain coming in 5 days??? Come on man do you really think so, the models haven’t a clue what’s going to happen in 2-3 days at present let alone 5

[IDO]

The GFS solution was not what we wanted as it will be less likely to return us quickly to a colder outlook, as well as ending the colder charts a few days quicker. FI on the GFS op has been tepid since it spotted the low breaking the momentum. Looks very similar to last winter where HP cells traverse mid-latitude flattening the pattern; Pacific, Atlantic and Russian highs. That did on most occasions lead to ridging near the UK after the initial burst of lower heights are released from the blocking.

So, maybe a zonal flush for a week (after the weekend) with a trend to a drier outlook the further away from the NW you are? We then await trop machinations for another colder shot as I am unconvinced that the MJO signal will override any underlying state.

Mean from D8-16:  

[blizzard81]

A kick in the teeth for coldies with those morning runs. However, even last night's ecm suite showed things getting markedly milder from days 11 to 15. See attached. The possible wintry spell was not going to be long lasting by the looks of it. Just a slight delay to something more mobile. 

[Dennis]

Monday seen as BATTLEDAY 

[knocker]

The importance of the Urals ridge in negating the influence of the tpv lobe/trough ext northern Canada and thus s;lowly allowing high pressure to build  over Europe, could well be a key factor in the ext period

[jules216]

How uncanny, pattern shaping Up now in Europe is almost exactly as it was last december yet everywhere else it looks the opopsite, this anomaly is also very close to the pattern at the begining of June 2021 which preceeded the warmest June/July period in some regions like mine. There we go.

 

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM this morning a tad more progressive and as such the cold air is shunted far enough east to introduce less cold air across the whole of the U.K. 

Good agreement between the ECM and UKMO for a large low to slowly track towards the U.K. next week with rain and strong winds. This one will likely become slow moving.

   

NOT exactly what is needed right now... 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Which is fully expected this far out - remember-@144 hrs we have almost vertical agreement. Regarding that Atlantic energy inbound. After that it’s anyone’s guess, and an array of possible sequences are on the table. 

My fear is once that Atlantic low settles in (unwelcome, imo) surely we won't shake free of the boring west to east Atlantic regime??