Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[blizzard81]

Ok so the short term disappoints aside, looking at the extended ecm debilt ens compared to last night's, interesting to note some colder runs in the extended compared to basically none on last night's. I wonder if these runs are showing the influence of the block backing west and pressure rising in our locale as alluded to by knocker in his post above? A crisp, seasonal Christmas would be nice. 

[Methuselah]

Well, it must be said: the view otside my window is a lot better than the GEFS 00Z ensembles!

    

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,well the U.K. weather in the next 7 days hangs in the balance ECM/UKMO showing this developing 

low in the Atlantic at 120 hrs it’s movement is crucial.Shown on the 00z ECM just west of Scotland,need that low

to be further south and then pushing east to continue the U.K. on the colder side of these Atlantic systems 

bringing more of a continental flow.Perhaps more wishful thinking but still lots of uncertainty beyond 120 hrs.

[MattStoke]

Completely unforecasted snow for some this morning, that not a single model was showing, but I'm sure that on 2nd of December we can write off the prospects of cold and/or snow during the rest of the month and even the winter based on what the models are showing  

Edited December 2, 2021 by MattStoke

[blizzard81]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ok so the short term disappoints aside, looking at the extended ecm debilt ens compared to last night's, interesting to note some colder runs in the extended compared to basically none on last night's. I wonder if these runs are showing the influence of the block backing west and pressure rising in our locale as alluded to by knocker in his post above? A crisp, seasonal Christmas would be nice. 

Further to this, the gfs control run shows this nicely in the extended. 

[Climate Man]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, it must be said: the view otside my window is a lot better than the GEFS 00Z ensembles!

    

Got to laugh at your Eeyor ensemble posts. Unfortunately I tend to agree with them 

[sundog]

16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Further to this, the gfs control run shows this nicely in the extended. 

I'd say it looks like a good bet that the coming more mobile pattern won't last too long and likely be replaced by a more HP dominated pattern in the run up to xmas. 

[Battleground Snow]

Don't worry the mighty icon, which moddled the 18 spell involving scandi heights the best has got this, keeps the lows seperate. .

Todays ECM continues to show decent mjo amplitude too.

Models can flip at short range, which they have been doing a alot already recently, I'm not worried about the strong polar vortex, it's strong most years in December. Other drivers are also in play as mentioned many times.

 

[sheikhy]

Going for a run!be back in 25 mins for the 6z!!oh by the way got an unexpected flurry of snow last night!!❄

[Dennis]

eyecatcher .....

[Notty]

52 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Completely unforecasted snow for some this morning, that not a single model was showing, but I'm sure that on 2nd of December we can write off the prospects of cold and/or snow during the rest of the month and even the winter based on what the models are showing  

Indeed, model consistency shot to bits at the moment (IMO). Only a few days ago there was some concensus on an impending easterly. I still maintain that this year is 'different' and we are in for last minute surprises (good and bad) e.g. the snow that people have had that they were not expecting.

The one thing that is odd in my area (South Wales) is the dryness. We are well overdue a lot of precipitation - hopefully not rain

[tight isobar]

Gfs 6z and take a look at the direction of the ejected LP!!!!

[Dennis]

THE GFS LOW

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Dennis

[Updated_Weather]

On 02/12/2021 at 10:09, tight isobar said:

Gfs 6z and take a look at the direction of the ejected LP!!!!

Moving south? What we want it to do don’t we?

[raul_sbd]

On 02/12/2021 at 10:10, Updated_Weather said:

Moving south? What we want it to do don’t we?

Yep

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 6z and take a look at the direction of the ejected LP!!!!

Yes, nice correction, although I think we need it even further south and shallower on the next run

[Battleground Snow]

The further we keep these 2 systems away from each other the better.

[Updated_Weather]

Seems GFS has started to behave slightly.. could do with it shallower and even further south, but it’s a start.. wouldn’t surprise me if it did produce a shallower low(as it’s used to blowing up the low) and being further south..

all is not over yet!

[Notty]

GFS 06z Op completely different to 00z as early as 144 !

[Methuselah]

Fascinating model-watching this morning: where will that LP end up? But, that aside, the longer-term outlook looks rather promising, methinks? And the fact that the models can't yet get an accurate fix on things makes it all the more fascinating!

   

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Yarmy]

Well we'd better hope it corrects southwards and becomes shallower because otherwise that's a catastrophic storm for Ireland and the southwest.

[tight isobar]

Great start for evolution,it’s further south initially, then stagnant against the block allowing for more defined wrap height heading for Scandinavia.. it’s a big step this.

Edited December 2, 2021 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

Looks like the models are still confused by this old skool start to the UK winter. Long may that confusion reign - more likely it will conclude in a very nice fashion for 'proper winter' lovers. 

[johnholmes]

Just taken a look at the Met Fax charts for the next 72 hours! Not quite sure how a couple of them are arrived at but then it is a long time since I was involved in their preparation!

Interesting to see how things turn out.

For today snow for some down the eastern coast, blue skies here.

adding the latest EC 500 mb chart for further ahead and it is a bit of a nightmare for anyone to decide just where any surface systems will track given the predicted 500 mb pattern. Part of the flow goes NE and part SE!

yes it is an interesting few days watching what actually happens but a nightmare for the professional forecasters.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited December 2, 2021 by johnholmes

[sheikhy]

Gona have to keep an eye out on that low in the atlantic!!its one of those that could just vanish just like that!!its relying on the interaction of the main vortex across greenland!!very uncertain times!dont even think the 12zs might get this one done and dusted!!