Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[winterof79]

Here's a non meteorological way if viewing the GFS 12Z

GFS pumping low after low into scandi

Its like stuffing your gran with Christmas dinner after Christmas dinner enentually shell become  that bloated she'll barf all over you.

[Updated_Weather]

On 02/12/2021 at 17:37, winterof79 said:

Here's a non meteorological way if viewing the GFS 12Z

GFS pumping low after low into scandi

Its like stuffing your gran with Christmas dinner after Christmas dinner enentually shell become  that bloated she'll barf all over you.

Deffo seems drunk… can’t see that happening.. typical GFS.

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Here's a non meteorological way if viewing the GFS 12Z

GFS pumping low after low into scandi

Its like stuffing your gran with Christmas dinner after Christmas dinner enentually shell become  that bloated she'll barf all over you.

Talk about a storm train!!! 

Then it ends with massive ne high block!!

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

Deffo seems drunk… can’t see that happening.. typical GFS.

Typical of all NWPMs, I think. How can models see through a volatile situation that hasn't even happened yet? After all, the basic equations used are chaotic by their very nature. . .

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Ali1977]

Has anyone noticed the GFS ENS - we have a significant shift in coldies favour with the Siberian high edging north. A few example ms ️

 

Building blocks for something epic mid to late Dec do we think???

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

ECM develops the low at 96

[weathercold]

Today seems to confirm the easterly hopes have all but ended. But now what? 
So much volatility across the NWP suite it’s almost impossible to make a concrete forecast for 7 days ahead.

Likely direction- westerly winds, unsettled, wind/rain.

Hopefully around mid month we’ll start to see a renewed push in heights, lots of cold to tap into across the NE, at least something to keep us engaged for now. 
 

We keep on to finding ourselves in the draw with plenty of tickets, we just can’t get any luck with those numbers aligning.

They’ll be further opportunities to strike gold, can we take them? 

 

 

[Frosty.]

I haven’t posted in a while but I’ve been lurking deep in the shadows.. , I just knew all the recent cold hype would go pear  shaped with the ecm in particular leading us Up and down the garden path.. when has the ecm ever verified beyond a week to 10 days.. hmmmm  ?…NEVER!!…anyway, looking towards crimbo I think P29 would suffice?…   

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by jon snow

[swfc]

Evening. I've took a back seat for a week and I'm still know wiser. To my humble eye I can't see anything in the reliable that looks long lasting. Plenty of confusion early on but the PV looks to the nnw like it doesn't care. It's obv it's strengthening and you can pontificate over fi and all the "bag of mashing" ie background signals but there is no serious long term wintry weather on the models. It could and can change but relax and just watch the output guys 

Early days

[SLEETY]

frustrating the bitter air on ecm at 72 hours not far away,but Atlantic too strong,next frame,just typical these days,so rare to get the bitter air across to the UK.

Dont hold out much hope now for December once the Atlantic takes control,familiar story now.

[clark3r]

Met office update was interesting today, I wonder if there are going to be more twists in the models in the next couple of days 

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

frustrating the bitter air on ecm at 72 hours not far away,but Atlantic too strong,next frame,just typical these days,so rare to get the bitter air across to the UK.

Dont hold out much hope now for December once the Atlantic takes control,familiar story now.

We also have the issue of the bitter cold uppers to the NE draining away. Even if we do get a Scandi mid month, there may not be much cold to tap into. 

[knocker]

The ecm also has some rapid cyclogenesis near the left exit of the jet

[Snowboy111]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Typical of all NWPMs, I think. How can models see through a volatile situation that hasn't even happened yet? After all, the basic equations used are inherently chaotic by their very nature. . .

What’s the point in looking at any models beyond day 5 then ??

[Stu_London]

Looking like the most mobile period of weather that we have seen for quite a while coming up. 

Looks pretty westerly so the probably only Scottish and northern hills seeing anything remotely wintry when the pattern takes hold.

To be fair, even when the easterly was being shown as possible, most runs were blowing it away after a day or so - it never looked like it could sustain for very long. In fact, the models have been quite consistent on a theme but have shunted everything east a couple of hundred miles.

That said, it doesn't 'feel' like the sort of winter where a zonal pattern dominates for too long, so I would be looking for the next trend to emerge from mid December onwards.

 

 

[SLEETY]

On 02/12/2021 at 18:35, Radiating Dendrite said:

We also have the issue of the bitter cold uppers to the NE draining away. Even if we do get a Scandi mid month, there may not be much cold to tap into. 

yeah back to square one,frustrating we have the really cold uppers now to the NE ,but are unable to get across to the UK,amazing how the Atlantic fires up at the wrong time,and is taking control,atlantic dominated weather can lasts for weeks too.

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

frustrating the bitter air on ecm at 72 hours not far away,but Atlantic too strong,next frame,just typical these days,so rare to get the bitter air across to the UK.

Dont hold out much hope now for December once the Atlantic takes control,familiar story now.

I know its difficult but try not to be disheartened. I can't stress enough how uncomfortable the models are in this unusual situation with the block so close to our north east. They hardly ever have to deal with such a situation. Whilst there is that dense block of cold over Scandinavia, the models will be all at sea. That block of cold is still there at day 6 on the ecm. 

[Snowman.]

You know 168 is pretty far away and the ECM chart you could work with to get more of a slidery tone too it. 
 

Actual not the worst. 

[johncam]

On 02/12/2021 at 18:38, Snowboy111 said:

What’s the point in looking at any models beyond day 5 then ??

Hi and on that note ,does anyone know  what are the model stats are  at 5 days  

[weirpig]

There is more to the weather than just cold   some very interesting weather over the next week or so    wild and stormy could well be the theme   interesting at least 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi and on that note ,does anyone know  what are the model stats are  at 5 days  

Yes, coming up:

0z T120:

12z T120:

The models tend to on average verify better in winter than summer, but I strongly suspect that is for average winter prospects i.e. zonal, not the kind of situation we are in now.  

Edited December 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[SLEETY]

Oh well back to bog standard December weather looking more and more likely.How riveting

Edited December 2, 2021 by SLEETY

[Ali1977]

Most interesting  GEFS FI charts for weeks - I think things are going to start getting interesting again in the next few days!!

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ali1977

[Bradowl]

On 02/12/2021 at 18:30, SLEETY said:

frustrating the bitter air on ecm at 72 hours not far away,but Atlantic too strong,next frame,just typical these days,so rare to get the bitter air across to the UK.

Dont hold out much hope now for December once the Atlantic takes control,familiar story now.

 

Bitter cold from East as always been rare, its not a yearly event, on average it is every 4 years according to Paul Hudson, I agree with him, you can get them 2 or maybe even 3 years running but you can then wait up to 8 years for next one.

[Man With Beard]

Bit of useless trivia, but it seems the ECM has the Atlantic low at Cat 2 hurricane strength by Monday night. Weakens quite considerably before landfall.

Well it seems the ECM 12Z has given up its attempt to get a proper easterly to the UK just for now. That Atlantic dartboard low is the killer of many a potential cold spell.