Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sounds a little bit 2009esque to me.

December 09 was different in some respects.. heights did build from the south quickly and joined heights more directly to our NE over Norweigen Sea. This time heights are further to our NE and not as expansive.. so we wont see a quick cold air advection scenario but we shall see. 

[blizzard81]

Gfs control agreeing with the op. 

[IDO]

Certainly storms and associated rain is likely the main issue over the next 10 days:

GFS 06z Gusts>  

Predicted rain totals for the next 10 days> 

 

[shunthebartlett92]

7 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Is GFS finally behaving? 

GFS making good steps look forward to 12z later

Huge improvement but as has been said before, shows the massive uncertainty with modelling the path of an atlantic bullseye low like this one, but it's superb seeing it potentially pipping the azores high to making landfall across western europe ha! My issue is the amount of energy present in the atlantic jet at the moment. The PV is so fired up its going to make any cold spell transient at best (For the time being),  but it doesnt stop potentially exciting marginal snow events with the right track 

Edited December 3, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[Battleground Snow]

The control and mean generally following the OP, which has the low heading further south and pressure slightly higher to the north east

@Mike Poole may be back from his hiatus soon if the 12z show further improvement corrections

Edited December 3, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[LetItSnow!]

It's a crucial period of forecasting because the mild charts appearing for mid-December I feel were purely based on how this low pressure behaves and once again I don't believe they've got a good handling of it. If the low pressure tracks much further south like is being hinted today it could change the entire outlook for the rest of the month so I remain cautious. Potentially a battleground snow event setting up around the 10th with some of the output I've seen... more headaches and toy throwing ahead. All to be expected in the joys of the winter season. 

[Country Boy]

A very strong jet  from the North West   America is driving  L.P systems our way.

A full  met office 10 day trend on you tube  shows  all this.

Its very interesting  regarding all the  L.P  tracking across the Atlantic

[MP-R]

On 03/12/2021 at 10:47, damianslaw said:

December 09 was different in some respects.. heights did build from the south quickly and joined heights more directly to our NE over Norweigen Sea. This time heights are further to our NE and not as expansive.. so we wont see a quick cold air advection scenario but we shall see. 

True. Patience required this time. 2009 really was ideal!

[tight isobar]

Not a bad set and the uncertainty highlighted- especially from around the 10th- keep watching folks

Edited December 3, 2021 by tight isobar

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not a bad set and the uncertainty highlighted- especially from around the 10th- keep watching folks

Doesn't look much difference to what came before from the 10th onwards. 

Pattern to me in the next 10 days is chilly and wet. Could be some snowy surprises with height in the north. 

[tight isobar]

On 03/12/2021 at 11:26, Radiating Dendrite said:

Doesn't look much difference to what came before from the 10th onwards. 

Pattern to me in the next 10 days is chilly and wet. Could be some snowy surprises with height in the north. 

Definitely-@ surprises. This pattern has it written all over it nxt 7/8days. Q- But it’s after the 1st , 3rd of this month that has to be watched

[Methuselah]

It's good to see the models gradually coming into line with the Met Office's thinking. And, keep an eye on developments (re deep cold) away to our NE?

Charts to follow once the ensembles are available.

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not a bad set and the uncertainty highlighted- especially from around the 10th- keep watching folks

Cold rain, the very best of British winter weather 

Best just wait until mid month onwards. Odds of a white Christmas I'd say are a bit higher than normal due to a potential well-timed pattern change around mid month that could be properly bedded in by the last week of 2021. Let's hope it stays locked and loaded.

[BlueHedgehog074]

On 02/12/2021 at 19:16, Dimie10 said:

 Can there not be a thread that is limited to only 5 days ahead for people who don't like the constant see saw of its going to be another ice age, to winters over on day 2 of the season...... EVERY few minutes!!  

Hi Dimie and others, have decided to give the short range model thread another go. From the sounds of it, seems like a lot of you would be happy to see it back. You can check out the new thread right here: 

If it turns out not to workout, am happy to remove/lock the thread, but hopefully it’ll be something that becomes a useful resource for many alongside the main Model Output Discussion thread. 

Just to add, please don’t reply to my post as would hate for the Model Output Discussion thread to get detailed (Edit: sorry, don’t intend for this to come across as unfriendly or anything). Thanks guys  

Edited December 3, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine

[LetItSnow!]

24 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not a bad set and the uncertainty highlighted- especially from around the 10th- keep watching folks

Call me easily pleased but it's nice to see such a long spell of colder than average weather even if not a snowmageddon for all. I celebrate all cooler than average weather! 

[Wilxy]

This is a great example of how blocked it is over Norway, even with deep lows struggling to get past!

[Staffmoorlands]

I think the Met Office have next week spot on - unsettled with wintry hazards (I love that phrase)

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 03/12/2021 at 08:49, damianslaw said:

Reliable timeframe Tursday tops. Lots of uncertainty where the low pressure will head and how deep. ECM and UKMO show it moving on.a more SE trajectory, GFS through the UK... these lows tend to affect more SW parts more and I expect UKMO and ECM closer to the money. Can't help but think the anaomously warm Atlantic is affecting the jet in some way.. if it was colder the lows would probably be tracking further north instead SE.

Yes - almost a Channel Low

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's Friday its 5 to 5..hang on a sec that was crackerjack

I've got that Friday feeling today...so much love to everyone and I've got plenty to share...

The ens are showing some serious Blocking in affect...strong Heights gather around scandy and through the urals,and some hints of them pushing North and West....we could start to put the strat under big pressure later this month...one to watch.

In the shorter term lots happening...could be a suprise snowfall coming to you very soon.

Great to see @DiagonalRedLineposting again,was worried he had ended up in the netweather dungeons or something  

Have a fab one...you know the drill.

[Dennis]

Come to Norway you weather LOW systems

 

I Kill YOU 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Come to Norway you weather LOW systems

 

I Kill YOU 

I don't think you will have to lol  

[tight isobar]

On 03/12/2021 at 11:44, mb018538 said:

Cold rain, the very best of British winter weather 

Best just wait until mid month onwards. Odds of a white Christmas I'd say are a bit higher than normal due to a potential well-timed pattern change around mid month that could be properly bedded in by the last week of 2021. Let's hope it stays locked and loaded.

Lol though ya say cold rain, this snap will/ should highlight the underscores - of nowcast situs. I was expecting just that @cold rain yet got 2cms of lying snow early Wednesday morning.. Given- it soon evaporated- melted as solar warming started- and was from a single shower activity shot ... nevertheless puts iron into the evolving circumstances !. And I’d expect ba lot more of this sort of overhead sudden situations, through coming days !@ the surprise element.

Edited December 3, 2021 by tight isobar

[SqueakheartLW]

Keep this trend going GFS. These are the ensemble average charts for that LOW that keeps on showing as a big storm next Tuesday/Wednesday time

Yesterday 12z

Yesterday 18z

Today 00z

Today 06z

Don't let us down today GFS on the 12z. Keep pushing it a bit further south

BOOM CHARTS FROM GFS EXTENDED

P25 - 804 hours away

Wouldn't mind this to start off 2022. Reminds me very much of early 2010.

P11 - 768 hours away

Although similar to the above I feel the above one is a more secure block than this one despite the colder uppers.

P16 - 654 hours away

Looks like a trough taking a band of snow south with it opening the floodgates to something even colder behind it.

I'd bank all 3 of these charts. Shame there wasn't anything particularly spectacular showing for Christmas Day itself though.

[blizzard81]

32 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's Friday its 5 to 5..hang on a sec that was crackerjack

I've got that Friday feeling today...so much love to everyone and I've got plenty to share...

The ens are showing some serious Blocking in affect...strong Heights gather around scandy and through the urals,and some hints of them pushing North and West....we could start to put the strat under big pressure later this month...one to watch.

In the shorter term lots happening...could be a suprise snowfall coming to you very soon.

Great to see @DiagonalRedLineposting again,was worried he had ended up in the netweather dungeons or something  

Have a fab one...you know the drill.

Don't forget the cfs lol. This looks impressive. Momentum building and always good when the Met Office are on board as well 

Edited December 3, 2021 by blizzard81

[tight isobar]

Gefs 500s- more blocked than the m25 ona Friday... watch today’s 12z operationals start showing platinum formats  ciao fa- now

Edited December 3, 2021 by tight isobar