Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[January Snowstorm]

The low on Tuesday is what's getting my attention now showing up on most models. Right now for my area it's looking very severe!!!

Presuming the downgrades will come, worth watching though for all in the West/Southwest

[bluearmy]

The next question is how many more eps clusters are lost to the westerly ?

This one feels like a losing battle for coldies from the high point of 48 hours ago! 

[swfc]

On 02/12/2021 at 18:38, Snowboy111 said:

What’s the point in looking at any models beyond day 5 then ??

Does that apply with deep snow and bitter winds. Il bet you diamonds there's no deep cold at day 5,7,10

[Methuselah]

45 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

What’s the point in looking at any models beyond day 5 then ??

Plenty. I said that the equations are inherently chaotic; not that all models are useless. I'm sure the pros have more in their arsenal than simply using computer models.

Not least, a thorough grounding in all the relevant fundamental physical processes involved!

Edited December 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Oh well back to bog standard December weather looking more and more likely.How riveting

Mate you seem to be throwing in the towel on the back of a few runs...and your literally saying Decmber looks done and dusted....I've lost count of the amount of times I've said you shouldn't be lead into total despair on the back of each and every op run...it does the person or anyone else,know good whatsoever!

There's alot going on...and what's just been stated on here by a few,regarding the gfs ens holding something very positive further into the month...I pointed out about some Tropical forcing going on just now...this could have implications on our conditions very soon..theres a chance some of those ens may be hinting at this now...it may still be a little early...but bare in mind it's the background drivers that the models get there projections from...

I can't believe how I feel like I need to lift some posters on here when a few bad runs make them feel its all over! There's alot going on...we can't even determine an accurate forecast for the next 5 days due to major uncertainty over that Low pressure....and do try to remind oneself that there's still 28 days of this month to come...thats 4 weeks....thats a hell of a long time in weather terms!

Will be interesting to see if the 46 picks up on some of these background drivers.

[Penrith Snow]

ECM should be renamed GPM 'Garden Path Model'. Soooo often it brings us ghost cold spells only to collapse them within hours. From Snow Armageddon to Bartlett Heaven with 24 hours.

Hopefully the background signals will bring us better charts by mid month but after a promising start its all a bit disappointing.

Andy

[carinthian]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of useless trivia, but it seems the ECM has the Atlantic low at Cat 2 hurricane strength by Monday night. Weakens quite considerably before landfall.

Well it seems the ECM 12Z has given up its attempt to get a proper easterly to the UK just for now. That Atlantic dartboard low is the killer of many a potential cold spell.

Evening all, yes looks like writing on the wall for any easterly incursion to push into the British Isles. The big three models have the low forming off the Eastern Seaboard of North America at 72h and develops into  a deepening closed Low out in Mid Atlantic in almost the same spot.  Unless there is a sudden back track from the models in the next 24 hours , I can only see the low exiting Northwards towards the British Isles. May not end up particularly mild, rather cold to be more likely but not the frigid air mass we were hoping for. I will give it another 24 hours before throwing the towel in yet again for that allusive real chill for you lot back in Blighty !

C

Edited December 2, 2021 by carinthian

[Penrith Snow]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mate you seem to be throwing in the towel on the back of a few runs...and your literally saying Decmber looks done and dusted....I've lost count of the amount of times I've said you shouldn't be lead into total despair on the back of each and every op run...it does the person or anyone else,know good whatsoever!

There's alot going on...and what's just been stated on here by a few,regarding the gfs ens holding something very positive further into the month...I pointed out about some Tropical forcing going on just now...this could have implications on our conditions very soon..theres a chance some of those ens may be hinting at this now...it may still be a little early...but bare in mind it's the background drivers that the models get there projections from...

I can't believe how I feel like I need to lift some posters on here when a few bad runs make them feel its all over! There's alot going on...we can't even determine an accurate forecast for the next 5 days due to major uncertainty over that Low pressure....and do try to remind oneself that there's still 28 days of this month to come...thats 4 weeks....thats a hell of a long time in weather terms!

Will be interesting to see if the 46 picks up on some of these background drivers.

I think the problem is we have all been here before and a reinvigorated PV in early December is not good news.

 

[johncam]

On 02/12/2021 at 18:46, Mike Poole said:

Yes, coming up:

0z T120:

12z T120:

The models tend to on average verify better in winter than summer, but I strongly suspect that is for average winter prospects i.e. zonal, not the kind of situation we are in now.  

Thanks for that Mike 

Cheers 

John 

[swfc]

On 02/12/2021 at 19:01, Ed Stone said:

Plenty. I said that the equations are inherently chaotic; not that all models are useless. I'm sure the pros have more in their arsenal than simply using computer models.

Ed I'm an eternal optimist but I'd be thinking that the pros have even a small angle on this

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM 120 hrs low pressure system and it’s track will be the key for the next 10 day scenario.

Looking very unsettled with an active Atlantic but not mild all the way as stated above the tracking of

these low pressures could change temperatures to a colder theme,Scandinavia still looking very cold.

 

 

[SLEETY]

On 02/12/2021 at 19:03, MATTWOLVES said:

Mate you seem to be throwing in the towel on the back of a few runs...and your literally saying Decmber looks done and dusted....I've lost count of the amount of times I've said you shouldn't be lead into total despair on the back of each and every op run...it does the person or anyone else,know good whatsoever!

There's alot going on...and what's just been stated on here by a few,regarding the gfs ens holding something very positive further into the month...I pointed out about some Tropical forcing going on just now...this could have implications on our conditions very soon..theres a chance some of those ens may be hinting at this now...it may still be a little early...but bare in mind it's the background drivers that the models get there projections from...

I can't believe how I feel like I need to lift some posters on here when a few bad runs make them feel its all over! There's alot going on...we can't even determine an accurate forecast for the next 5 days due to major uncertainty over that Low pressure....and do try to remind oneself that there's still 28 days of this month to come...thats 4 weeks....thats a hell of a long time in weather terms!

Will be interesting to see if the 46 picks up on some of these background drivers.

I admire your optimism but we all know when the Atlantic takes control it normally lasts for weeks.

 

GFS ens throw out eye-watering charts every winter,problem is  they verify so rarely in fl ,that you may as well draw your own weather charts and you probably have a better chance of them being correct than fl gfs ens

Edited December 2, 2021 by SLEETY

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I admire your optimism but we all know when the Atlantic takes control it normally lasts for weeks.

 

GFS ens throw out eye-watering charts every winter,problem is  they verify so rarely in fl ,that you may as well draw your own weather charts and you probably have a better chance of them being correct than fl gfs ens

Firstly the Atlantic has not been in control for over a year now...so your just using past pretences to highlight the fact when it does...its all over...the reason I mentioned the ens were because of the fact we have some tropical forcing taking place,and there's a chance that some ens may begin to hint at changes! I may be wrong...but I highlight the possibility! 

Ensembles can be a good indicator of a change in pattern,especially if there enough of them making the same hint! It's very easy to say they're not gonna be correct when it comes to cold...but there bound to be correct if its Atlantic dominating conditions they show!

I mean let's be honest here...one minute this forum is ecstatic after a few good 12z runs...then in despair when the 0z runs go downhill...and hey presto,back to euphoric when the 12s improve again.

This is not me having a go at you mate,I respect your opinions...perhaps this is me having a little rant. But good god...2 days into winter and I already feel like I'm spent out.. time for me to take a time out...more worrying concerns to deal with right now.

Happy hunting,and don't give in...when your down,and you think your out,the only way is up from that point. Expect to see some marked improvements beyond the next few days.

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[swfc]

On 02/12/2021 at 19:17, Dimie10 said:

BTW no disrespect intended to anyone who contributes 

It Dosnt really but the trend isn't run to run today. The PV is gaining traction the the nnw. Its not guaranteed but for a while it looks strong. That's not to say winter is over by any imagination

[Mapantz]

Can we get back to model discussion please?

Far too many complaints in here, and replies to them. 

[swfc]

So looking forward even tho it's not popular I can't see a sustained cold spell in the next 10 days. Wintry showers possible on high ground but not a lot else imo. Obv supries can happen given any decent 850s and angle of attack bringing some snowfall. Easy as she goes then

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,ECM 120 hrs low pressure system and it’s track will be the key for the next 10 day scenario.

Looking very unsettled with an active Atlantic but not mild all the way as stated above the tracking of

these low pressures could change temperatures to a colder theme,Scandinavia still looking very cold.

 

 

Look at the 850s associated with the low pressure - it is a cold atlantic flow, sub 528 dam air in places, evaporative cooling could mean rain will be snow down to relatively low levels, the wet variety. It remains a cold outlook really.

[phil nw.]

It looks like early next week we see a period where the  the Atlantic flow edges further in as the block further east just loses some ground.

Looking unsettled with a deep low  modeled just out west by day 5 so one feature to watch as we get closer.

Not by any means a switch to a mild pattern as the UK will still for a large part of the coming 10 days be north of the jet with quite chilly air around,

I feel we may see a week or maybe 2 of this mobility before possibly a slow down again in the pattern as later ens hint of resurgence of heights to the east and the retreat of the Canadian vortex.Perhaps a mid-month high pressure development around our parts as gefs show.Surface conditions as ever dependent on positioning and whether it would be far enough north for a cold feed.

 

[damianslaw]

40 minutes ago, Dimie10 said:

I love this site, watched it for years, but I am lost as to literally every 30 minutes it goes from being BOOM to BUST !! Can there not be a thread that is limited to only 5 days ahead for people who don't like the constant see saw of its going to be another ice age, to winters over on day 2 of the season...... EVERY few minutes!!  

There is a thread for moans and ramps - and people should it to say how they feel about the models, use this thread to say what the models are showing - this is a message to all.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok folks I'm out of retirement...I've let off my steam  

I'm liking the 46 anomalies...some strong hints of extensive Hights across the UK in towards scandy big time.

Edited December 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Cold Winter Night]

Not much new on the clusters compared to this morning.
Days 5-10 are NAO+ dominant, with a minor cluster with NE blocking.

We still see in the extended, 264h-360h, that the majority (33 members) moves towards a BLO+ regime, 23 of them in a cluster that has heights over most of Europe, I can imagine inversion cold with that, and 10 members in a cluster with some modest Scandi heights.
The other 18 go NAO+/Euro High.

[Cold Winter Night]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ok folks I'm out of retirement...I've let off my steam  

I'm liking the 46 anomalies...some strong hints of extensive Hights across the UK in towards scandy big time.

That last one, and cluster 1 at 360h, has a December 2007 look.

One big High pressure dome, with an inversion and frost under it.

Edited December 2, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[swfc]

On 02/12/2021 at 20:01, MATTWOLVES said:

Ok folks I'm out of retirement...I've let off my steam  

I'm liking the 46 anomalies...some strong hints of extensive Hights across the UK in towards scandy big time.

Relax man its only weather fgs. Long way to go pal early days boss

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ok folks I'm out of retirement...I've let off my steam  

I'm liking the 46 anomalies...some strong hints of extensive Hights across the UK in towards scandy big time.

Yes noticeable that the blocking signal further east doesn't  go away and does look like returning in 10 days or so.Probably about the right timing taking into account the move east of the MJO into phase 7 about now and the lag effect.

[Snowman.]

Anyone got the UKMO 168?