Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Bradley in Kent said:

On the bright side (literally) today is the latest sunrise meaning from tomorrow we'll start the ascent to more daylight. 

I think Jan and Feb will be a write off (hope I'm wrong) but late Feb / early March that sun gets warm and days really draw out. Can't wait!

I'm more hopeful (of either cold and wintry OR mild and dry, to make it clear) about Feb, because there are plenty of examples in recent history when there was a big change Jan to Feb, e.g. 1983, 1998, 2008, 2018. Granted two of these Februaries were mild, not cold, but they were very sunny and dry - so at least there's prior form for the rest of the winter being something other than endless dull and damp.

Jan 20 is often a 'flip' date, it remains to be seen if this will be the case this year. My gut feeling is still for a dry and anticyclonic Feb, perhaps only because they have been in short supply (2019 excepted) in recent years.  My 'gut feeling' prediction for Jan, based on current models plus the hope of a change around Jan 20, for central southern England is now 130% rainfall (almost all falling in the first three weeks), about 1.5C above average (2C+ above average for first three weeks and average for the last 10 days) and 90% sunshine (most in the last 10 days). No expert knowledge there though!

Edited December 30, 2021 by Summer8906

[mpkio2]

This December has been one of the mildest and boring since December 2015! I'm usually very optimistic, but I just can't see an end to this onslaught of vile, mild, dross. 

I'm gonna make a bet that we will have a "cold" Spring, but that just equals to 12c and rain.

Thanks Weather Gods, but no thanks!

[Coopsy]

Did anyone top 16oC today? Balmy weather 

[carinthian]

Whilst Euroland swelters under vile condition, meanwhile, Vancouver having one of its coldest and snowiest festive holidays ever ! My son has sent me these pictures from his hood in Vancouver , taken this morning. Hope you enjoy !

Edited December 30, 2021 by carinthian

[stainesbloke]

13°C at 23:00 in Prague at the end of December. Someone has broken the weather

[okidoke]

You have to laugh.. a snowbomb I thought that's something you buy in Asda

[snowspotter]

Sadly I am beginning to think this winter , that seemed to promise so much may be heading down the crap route . Every January we seem to end up here hoping for a late January feb cold spell. I watched Gavs winter forecast again yesterday and he did say mid January to mid February the best chance for cold BUT also said a chance this could be overidden . If we don’t see anything in the charts long term in next 10 days I think it’s time to call it a bust as that would take us to mid to late January 

[SLEETY]

Probably be a cold spring again, or hopefully late Winter, with temps much colder than they are now, weather seems to even itself out, eventually, that bitter weather over parts of Canada that does not normally get that cold like Vancouver,is going to end up somewhere else eventually, maybe a frigid  late Winter for  UK

You can't  write off the whole Winter at end of December like some posters  in this forum are, even the more experienced ones, utterly pathetic, almost trolling here to think that on the 31st December!! 

 

 

 

[Peter H]

The record breaking winter of 1947 didn’t start until the last week in January that year, and the early part of the month was very mild.

Also, the winter of 1986 had a really cold February, after a fairly mild December and January.

I also remember the winter of 1995 having a very cold snowy spell in February as well.

But I’m not optimistic at all this year. The jet stream really does appear to be very strong with no signs of the Atlantic weather systems letting up until at least the middle of January, and that takes us to the half way stage of the season.

Still, there does appear to be some very cold air not that far away in Europe and certainly over Scandinavia so there’s always some hope. Some winters the mild air extends right the way to Moscow, and it’s very cold at the moment.

Just a slight change in these circumstances can make all the difference, but the Atlantic really does need to slow down. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like the seasonals are being very much vindicated in their +NAO assertions. 

CFS goes even worse for Feb

That's as strong a signal you'll see.

Never fear, UK troughing and some N heights are shown to return in time for May/June...

Edited December 31, 2021 by CreweCold

[jules216]

6 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

13°C at 23:00 in Prague at the end of December. Someone has broken the weather

Finally a vindication where CZ is mild and Eastern Slovakia cold. Since last 2 and a half winter months jan21/feb21/ and 1/2 half of dec21 the cold just stopped Across the border in Poland and Czech rep. Where they had great spell of cold and Snow and here nothing. But finally a change and we have snowy spell and cold in Eastern Slovakia in the same time as Czech have mild weather. The result is the snowiest Christmas in a long tíme here. Even now I am hanging on to freezing temperature where everywhere else is mild.

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by jules216

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Finally a vindication where CZ is mild and Eastern Slovakia cold. Since last 2 and a half winter months jan21/feb21/ and 1/2 half of dec21 the cold just stopped Across the border in Poland and Czech rep. Where they had great spell of cold and Snow and here nothing. But finally a change and we have snowy spell and cold in Eastern Slovakia in the same time as Czech have mild weather. The result is the snowiest Christmas in a long tíme here. Even now I am hanging on to freezing temperature where everywhere else is mild.

 

Looks good. Moldova also got lucky this time, with the snowiest it has been the past 3 years. It really was a super fine margin though.

[SLEETY]

Cfs is a useless  junk model wasn't it showing bitter Easterlies for end of December with minus 20 hpa  not far away, a while back, someone posted  the charts I remember,thst was well predicted, haha.

Might as well get a toddler to predict the weather months in advance be more accurate than Cfs  stands for Crud model

 

 

[jvenge]

Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast. 

[Hotspur62]

History tells us that once we are in this type of pattern it will be difficult for us to see a route to a cold spell for U.K. COLD.It seems some on their thoughts that a cold November and December was possible were also sadly wrong but we were within a whisker of them being right at the same time.That again has been a regular thing when over the last few weeks it looks like we have a chance things always go the wrong way.My fear is that in about 10 days time I would say that the Eastern Seeboard will more than likely go cold(been incredibly mild there this winter) and this will only fuel the jet stream further.On a positive and maybe strawclutch I still think it is impossible to call past 14 days for trends and in that respect just hope something pops up.Miracles can happen and I wish you all a safe and Happy New Year and hope with it so do fortunes improve from a cold and snowy perspective.

[snowspotter]

2 hours ago, jvenge said:

Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast. 

Yeah it’s supposed to ! But it changes weekly from one extreme to the other so like the poster above intimates it’s a load of rubbish 

[carinthian]

The horrid vile wetness of yesterday cleared. Warm sunshine from a cloudless sky this morning . Fog in the valley, where the current temp is -1c. Up on the berg at 2000m , currently 10c . Warmest New Years Eve/ Day  ever on the cards . Think a bit of sunbathing and cold beer is going to be order of the day.

C

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Finally a vindication where CZ is mild and Eastern Slovakia cold. Since last 2 and a half winter months jan21/feb21/ and 1/2 half of dec21 the cold just stopped Across the border in Poland and Czech rep. Where they had great spell of cold and Snow and here nothing. But finally a change and we have snowy spell and cold in Eastern Slovakia in the same time as Czech have mild weather. The result is the snowiest Christmas in a long tíme here. Even now I am hanging on to freezing temperature where everywhere else is mild.

 

Glad you finally have your preferred weather at this time of year Enjoy the snow! 
Still 13°C here in Prague, with yet more dreary and boring grey skies, and a gusty SW’ly breeze. Am craving sunshine and am having to take Vitamin D3 on a regular basis at the moment.

[jvenge]

22 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Yeah it’s supposed to ! But it changes weekly from one extreme to the other so like the poster above intimates it’s a load of rubbish 

Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.

[SLEETY]

How can you take anything from cfs when it changes so much from run to run, just accept its crud and move on. 

Anyway I note some pros are going for a dramatic change in the weather from around  2nd half to late winter with frigid Arctic Air hitting Europe, sounds like a trough moving down  through Eastern Europe, with high pressure being sucked up in to Greenland,and joining up with the Arctic High the classic historic pattern, like Feb 1895, as if, but you never know, its been a crazy year of extreme weather around the globe, maybe its our turn! 

[snowspotter]

17 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.

I’d like to be convinced if there is anything to be taken from it when it fluctuates so much . Maybe I’m not an expert

[carinthian]

France , currently on course for its warmest winter in history . Poor ski conditions has lead to many cancellations in their prime ski resorts.   A combination of winter heat and Macrons unjustified treatment towards any thing British all leading to melt down in that wonderful country. Moan over . Sure the frosts and snow will return for Easter time.

C

Edited December 31, 2021 by carinthian

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

I’d like to be convinced if there is anything to be taken from it when it fluctuates so much . Maybe I’m not an expert

You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.

[northwestsnow]

It's grim .

If you want seasonal weather it really doesn't get any worse , low teens and drizzle in late December is rubbish even by our standards...

Need to move to the top of a big hill ,sharpish !!

[snowspotter]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.

Ok . I’ll look at it this way . I thought it was an average anyway bearing in mind it’s predicting averages for the whole month of say February.