Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[jvenge]

What's with the fog hating?  I look forward to fog days.

 

[SLEETY]

Uusual pressure patterns arrive for winter again,then back to HLB in other seasons so boringly predictable!!!!!!!!

[Summer8906]

It does seem to be the case that extreme and unnatural mildness is very common in late December and January, more than other times of year sadly.

Looking at the Met Office there's 4 consecutive days of 14C+ in London for heaven's sake, about as far from the Atlantic as you can go in the UK! And the temp not falling below 10C at night, what is this, early autumn? This is just plain extreme and around 7 to 8C above normal, we should be looking at around 7C as a norm for the time of year. Sadly this sort of thing in 'winter' is becoming more common.

Extreme and unnatural mildness in mid winter is not good for spring as it means things flower too early (plum blossom in early Feb 2020) and ruins the experience of spring. 'Winter' in northwestern Europe is a rotten season of gloom, unnatural (for the season) mildness, extreme humidity and damp. We had this in 2015/16, 2019/20 and now 2021/22. Three years out of 7 with extreme winter mildness is not good. Bring back the eighties!

I sincerely hope we get some real intense cold in the second half of Jan and early Feb. We'll need it to prevent spring being affected adversely by this extreme mildness. We really were very, very lucky that March 2016 was on the cold side as it counteracted the adverse effects of the previous winter in advancing spring flowering too early. And after this trying winter (in many aspects, not just weather) we'll all need a good spring.

The time for temps 7 or 8C above normal is September and October, not mid-winter.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Summer8906

[Guest]

I wonder whether if with a foehn effect we can challenge December all time record. Models widely forecasting 14-16C for several days so wouldn’t be surprised to see a 17-18C somewhere. 

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

Exceptional warmth this week for the time of year. Temps reflective of late spring/early summer quite astonishing. Night time temps of 14 degrees in London at the end of Dec is quite something. There is no disputing global warming is causing these extremes we now experience more regularly now than ever before.

As for this winter- I’m not one to hopecast and like to call it how I see it - my thoughts are we will need a SSW to save our winter this year - personally so many of the really positive signals seen in Nov and Dec have readily evaporated sadly.

Only 3-4 months until Spring …whilst the weather this week will make you reach for the those t shirts and shorts believe it or not we are actually meant to be in mid winter -:)

Really you have to get some facts straight.17c have been recorded on a number of occasions in late Decenber.

[weathercold]

18 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Really you have to get some facts straight.17c have been recorded on a number of occasions in late Decenber.

It’s still exceptional if it isn’t the norm…how many December’s in the last 20 years have registered 17 deg approx at the end of December with night lows of 14/15 deg? 
I think you need to check out your own ‘facts’ my friend

[ANYWEATHER]

16 minutes ago, LRD said:

FI of course so it won't happen but, surprise, surprise it ends up sinking

It seems to me that the atmosphere is trying to get northern blocking in play but 'something' keeps on over riding it. That 'something' being linked to the warming climate

I reckon if we were in the 60's, 70's or 80's or even as recently as the 90s we'd be in a cold spell right now. The acceleration of warming during this century is scuppering everything. The years 2009-2013 were a mere blip

The atmosphere and weather has so many variations and variables that the knowledge of what we know now has merely scratched the surface of meteorology!  Its ludicrous to assume that so called climate change is to blame, a bit like someone putting ten cakes in the oven ,nine cakes rise ,one doesn't and all came from the same mixing bowl....so what do you blame? The oven, the cake tin or the cake mix......?

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, weathercold said:

It’s still exceptional if it isn’t the norm…how many December’s in the last 20 years have registered 17 deg approx at the end of December with night lows of 14/15 deg? 
I think you need to check out your own ‘facts’ my friend

To be honest and fair he's right, look back on historic weather data and you will find its happened more times than you think☺

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest and fair he's right, look back on historic weather data and you will find its happened more times than you think☺

No, it hasn't. You're not the only one here with a knowledge of historic weather!

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The atmosphere and weather has so many variations and variables that the knowledge of what we know now has merely scratched the surface of meteorology!  Its ludicrous to assume that so called climate change is to blame, a bit like someone putting ten cakes in the oven ,nine cakes rise ,one doesn't and all came from the same mixing bowl....so what do you blame? The oven, the cake tin or the cake mix......?

What a ridiculous, stupid analogy. 

But, then again, you have "hates the spin and lies to do with our planet's climate" in your profile and you say "so-called" climate change. So, you're a denier therefore I won't take anything you say seriously. That is my last word on the matter as I don't want to de-rail the thread

[weathercold]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest and fair he's right, look back on historic weather data and you will find its happened more times than you think☺

How many times in the last 20 years has the end of December recorded 16 deg daytime temp and 13/14 at night? 

[weathercold]

12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The atmosphere and weather has so many variations and variables that the knowledge of what we know now has merely scratched the surface of meteorology!  Its ludicrous to assume that so called climate change is to blame, a bit like someone putting ten cakes in the oven ,nine cakes rise ,one doesn't and all came from the same mixing bowl....so what do you blame? The oven, the cake tin or the cake mix......?

Oh dear.

[ANYWEATHER]

7 minutes ago, weathercold said:

How many times in the last 20 years has the end of December recorded 16 deg daytime temp and 13/14 at night? 

Why don't you check it out? In fairness why don't you check the last 100 years of data? It's worth having a look, I've learned a lot by looking back in History,  and still learning ☺

[weathercold]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Why don't you check it out? In fairness why don't you check the last 100 years of data? It's worth having a look, I've learned a lot by looking back in History,  and still learning ☺

I don’t need to - I know it’s not happened often( last 20 years) hence my initial point.

I’m interested in your findings…

 

[Staffmoorlands]

Highest daily minimum temperature records for England: DECEMBER= 13.7C 12.12.1994 Whitby N Yorks   JANUARY= 13.0C 20.01.2008 St James's Pk London

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No, it hasn't. You're not the only one here with a knowledge of historic weather!

In recent years your probably correct Pete...but many of our records only cover the last century..but we have in the past recorded very warm periods...ie the 950 till 1100 medieval period..The North Atlantic sector was very warm...the warmest period since the roman age...but other parts of the globe were in fact colder! This last century is probably on a par if not warmer than that last truelly warm cycle..

But what amazes me how the little ice age period followed on from it many moons later!  Could history repeat itself...or perhaps we will all be long gone by then,so it's gonna be down to the new breed of cold chasers to follow that dream on!

@SLEETY there's nothing really abnormal about those charts from April and May showing significant blocking around the NW latitudes...the vortex at this point is shredded and being put to sleep...far less energy over the Arctic regions,which always put you in an easier position for amplication in those said areas. Much less of a temperature gradient occurring which will result in a weaker jetstream,enabling Heights to build easier.

We are not done folks...Today our chase begins proper..ignore the next 10 days...its doomed...beyond that is where we look...its not just us missing out either...the Eastern seaboard also having know cold rewards while the West takes all the cold.. these things can and do flip.

[weathercold]

Sure if we look back over 100 years you’ll find numerous instances whereby the min temp has recorded 15/16 deg in late December. My point concerns the last 20 years. It is still a relatively rare occurrence and more so over 100 years when compared to most late December’s.

It may well become more and more common in the years to come …I wonder why? I’ll leave it there.

[Bradley in Kent]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Highest daily minimum temperature records for England: DECEMBER= 13.7C 12.12.1994 Whitby N Yorks   JANUARY= 13.0C 20.01.2008 St James's Pk London

Well, we might as well break a record if we can't have cold! 

I'm not so good with understanding tropical maritime conditions and what affects temperature this time of year. I'll take a guess of dry, slight breeze but thick cloud?

[Ali1977]

There’s no denying the world is currently warming up, but In a warming world there were many out there that didn’t think winters like 2010 were possible, the coldest Dec in 100 years. Just because we are about to have a mild period it doesn’t mean it’s all down to global warming.

No professional or amateur can predict accurately a month or so on. We “could” have the coldest Feb in a 100 years regardless of the signals currently modelled - next winter could trump 1963, no one knows for sure.

Alaska and NE Canada are smashing cold records by the way!!

Anyway, mid Jan is when it’s happening

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There’s no denying the world is currently warming up, but In a warming world there were many out there that didn’t think winters like 2010 were possible, the coldest Dec in 100 years. Just because we are about to have a mild period it doesn’t mean it’s all down to global warming.

No professional or amateur can predict accurately a month or so on. We “could” have the coldest Feb in a 100 years regardless of the signals currently modelled - next winter could trump 1963, no one knows for sure.

Alaska and NE Canada are smashing cold records by the way!!

Anyway, mid Jan is when it’s happening

Not denying cold can't happen (wouldn't be here in winter otherwise) but it just makes it much less likely. I think there will be cold spells in the future but probability of them being severe or regular decreases as time ticks by

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, LRD said:

Not denying cold can't happen (wouldn't be here in winter otherwise) but it just makes it much less likely. I think there will be cold spells in the future but probability of them being severe or regular decreases as time ticks by

Indeed. Low lying snow away from the hills and up north and possibly Wales will be an event of the past in years to come. A warming climate is leading to more energy from the states leading to more flooding in the UK, probably for going on nine months of the year. So nine months of autumnal weather followed by three months of windy but hopefully sunnier weather.

The UK is a huge looser when it comes to climate change. 

[Bradley in Kent]

32 minutes ago, LRD said:

Not denying cold can't happen (wouldn't be here in winter otherwise) but it just makes it much less likely. I think there will be cold spells in the future but probability of them being severe or regular decreases as time ticks by

I'm conscious that this isn't the CC thread; but I suppose the complete fall-through from last week with a very mild forecast is prompting such reactions. 

I'll say the days of trop only cold spells (>1 week) are over because too much energy is preventing height builds to the North or East. I mean, look at what's been happening since November!

However SSWs will continue meaning BTFE style events will still happen even in 2050 perhaps 2100. But whilst the strat is intact, prepare for more tropical maritime conditions!

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

I don’t need to - I know it’s not happened often( last 20 years) hence my initial point.

I’m interested in your findings…

 

4 out of the last 5 UK winter's have recorded a temperature of 18°c.

[ANYWEATHER]

24 minutes ago, DCee said:

Indeed. Low lying snow away from the hills and up north and possibly Wales will be an event of the past in years to come. A warming climate is leading to more energy from the states leading to more flooding in the UK, probably for going on nine months of the year. So nine months of autumnal weather followed by three months of windy but hopefully sunnier weather.

The UK is a huge looser when it comes to climate change. 

Not so long ago the main stream media were touting that we would have to endure long dry conditions and the UK would have a water crisis ,

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Not so long ago the main stream media were touting that we would have to endure long dry conditions and the UK would have a water crisis ,

The same MSM that very recently predicted a 'snowbomb'? May I suggest we look to science for our answers and not the piffle that the media produce?