Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Don]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

Going to pick a little optimism out of the gloom.

A lot of people are comparing what's happened this week to December 2012. And I can see the links. December 2012 was also a rubbish month and lots of promise cruelly snatched away from us at the end.

Now I'm not a big one for comparing one winter with another when it comes to weather...but I do remember the despair on here when it all flipped to mild. And that emotional response is very similar on here this week. (Although I think it's been heightened by other events going on with us all)

Anyway...

January 2013 started off pretty rubbish and mild. The forums went quiet, my favoruite walks continued to get muddier and muddier (much like they're doing now).

And then we got to mid Jan...

...and then there was that March 2013.

Feel free to join the dots.

I pointed this out in the model discussion thread that after the disappointing December 2012, the rest of the winter was decent.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I think the gloom comes from the fact that the models performed so badly. There will be a feeling that the next time that cold weather is predicted by the models, it can’t be trusted.

[HafrenLMP1]

2 hours ago, Gord said:

I don’t know what you’re all experiencing in your locations, but the constant gloom here is getting to me more than the loss of any potential cold spell.

It’s not even broken cloud…just a thick constant layer all week keeping it fairly grim.

 

Yeah, that's how I feel; the constant grey gloom, utterly grim/rancid...........The cold, crisp and blue sky days are what I favour, even over snow, but we don't get many of them either.

[Froze were the Days]

The Last week where I live (Essex coast) we've had a total of a few hours of sun which is pathetic and seems to epitomise recent winters, November wasn't too bad - largely dry with some sunny days but this December though not overly wet has been gloomy and depressing. The outlook into the New Year looks no better and possibly becoming quite wet. So this coupled with Covid again is thoroughly depressing going into 2022!

[Jason T]

2 hours ago, Gord said:

I don’t know what you’re all experiencing in your locations, but the constant gloom here is getting to me more than the loss of any potential cold spell.

It’s not even broken cloud…just a thick constant layer all week keeping it fairly grim.

And the potential upcoming mild spell doesn’t look like improving it much. (Please note the careful use of the word ‘potential’. Don’t want to get dragged along with any misconceptions! Be it cold or mild ones!)

Can’t remember the last time I could see the Shropshire hills way out to the west from my location!

Same here Gord, I am sooo p"*^ed off, all that chasing and we end with the dark, dreary doom and groom rubbish, god it is boring this standard mild dross. Still hopefully maybe, just maybe we all will get that little cold snowy reward very soon.

[Tuxedo]

I’ve been on this site for a while and I never quite understand when in the Model Discussion people get so up beat and go…. BOOM…. GAME ON…. based on charts that are between 10 and 20 days away. With modern science where it is, a 5 day outlook is as accurate as it gets so anything beyond that is speculative. It’s fascinating looking at all the charts, meteorological jargon - real expertise BUT don’t get drawn into all the hype or down beat-ness. It really doesn’t mean a lot as charts that are 144 hr plus can’t be relied upon despite all the analysis and expertise. I’m sure it’s credible from credible members BUT meteorological science is such that to make accurate forecasts it doesn’t go beyond 5 days!
 

I have learnt through many experiences of bitter disappointment having being convinced after reading the Model Thread we are in for a… DUMPING….BOOM CHARTS…. STELLA….. but then at the last it all goes pear shape and the charts come into the 5 day period when the models, science, nature all converge to give us a fairly accurate forecast. 

Ive learnt over the years reading the model thread and trying to predict weather 330hrs/240hrs  with any accuracy is pure conjecture and should be seen as fun only and not something viewed with any degree of certainty or accuracy.

Its a shame we aren’t going to have much snow in the foreseeable but the forecasting charts I was using was NEVER forecasting a cold period in the midlands southwards. Here is a very big tip for those that don’t want to get drawn into BOOM and STELLA charts that are outside the 5 day framework then my method of wanting to know what the weather is going to be and doesn’t (usually) lead to disappointment is to follow the 120hr Fax Charts that are produced by the met office and updated around 10pm every night. For fun then listen to all the scientific anaysis on the model thread but remember even the most experienced can’t predict with any accuracy the weather beyond a 5 day period.

[Weather-history]

Saw a post in the model thread saying Christmas 1985 was 16C and sunny

I assume they were not in this country at the time.......

[damianslaw]

A good time I feel to take a break from model watching and enjoy the chrustmas break. Traditionally the models go a bit haywire over Christmas period any way. Can I last until New Year... hopefully the SW muck will quickly out stay its welcome. 

[Wimbledon88]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Saw a post in the model thread saying Christmas 1985 was 16C and sunny

I assume they were not in this country at the time.......

Can't imagine many on there were even born in 1985,or 1995 for that matter.

[Froze were the Days]

Give me good ol' Ceefax again for the weather ahead or even the farmers Sunday forecast on BBC...you never got your hopes up back in those days and just depended on some words for a further outlook. In these times too much information and models are at hand, shame they couldn't just go out to 5 days like the fore-mentioned! 

[Don]

59 minutes ago, Jason T said:

Same here Gord, I am sooo p"*^ed off, all that chasing and we end with the dark, dreary doom and groom rubbish, god it is boring this standard mild dross. Still hopefully maybe, just maybe we all will get that little cold snowy reward very soon.

It's really awful here, grey and dank!  This winter is not in my good books currently.  However, it has plenty of time to redeem itself! 

[AderynCoch]

2 hours ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I cant wait to go now. Shame the real cold spell will have abated by the time we're there but we'll get into the mountains for a day or two, so i might see a bit of the good stuff this winter at least! Any handy phrases i should learn? I've learnt a few phrases from her but my slovak is 1/10 as it stands hahaha.

How about "prosím si pivo" (a beer, please) for starters? jules216 was the resident Slovak on here but he was recently scared away from the forum, sadly.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Even though it's still early days, I wouldn't be surprised if we have to wait until March for some decent wintry weather, as March often ends up being colder than December.

Trouble is, wintry weather doesn't quite feel the same at that time of the year with the increasing daylight hours and sun strength. And by that point, many of us are ready for spring anyway.

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, AderynCoch said:

How about "prosím si pivo" (a beer, please) for starters? jules216 was the resident Slovak on here but he was recently scared away from the forum, sadly.

Think he still posts regularly, @jules216 I’ve tagged so I can ask for his help! Feel free to PM too 

[The Future]

BOOM! Right over my house.

[Staffmoorlands]

Met Office Hadley      5.9c      1c above average so far this month despite earlier cold spell in December - awful

[Puddy Galore]

4 hours ago, Gord said:

I don’t know what you’re all experiencing in your locations, but the constant gloom here is getting to me more than the loss of any potential cold spell.

It’s not even broken cloud…just a thick constant layer all week keeping it fairly grim.

And the potential upcoming mild spell doesn’t look like improving it much. (Please note the careful use of the word ‘potential’. Don’t want to get dragged along with any misconceptions! Be it cold or mild ones!)

Can’t remember the last time I could see the Shropshire hills way out to the west from my location!

I’m not far from you in Penn and it is dreadful weather - dark, dank, damp and utterly miserable.  What I simply cannot fathom is why people prefer this mild muggy wet damp stuff in winter to bright but cold and crisp weather.   Even with the ground covered in snow it at least brightens everywhere up!!  You still still need to heat the house to guard against the dampness creeping in, it really is utterly vile.  I’ve even put the Christmas lights on early this afternoon to make it look better.  

 

What also strikes me is some of the same people who moaned and groaned constantly over the summer months about the lack of sun and the constant cloud and rain seem to be the very ones who seem to prefer this dark dank wet damp nothingness in winter to bright but cold conditions - the mind boggles it really does. 

[Norrance]

Been gloomy here too and also cold and also wet at times. The temp this afternoon has just touched 5C for the first time in over a week though accompanied with steady rain. It is also a week since I saw the sun. Despite quite low temperatures with the rain falling at times down to 1C or below I have not even seen a flake of sleet, never mind snow.

[jvenge]

I know most won't care, but it has really been odd watching the models these days (for a different reason to most). The GFS control and OP for me now find high single digit to low double digit minus temperatures for next week. What is strange is that at the start of the week it was showing double digit positive temperatures. No hints in the ensembles of this prior. And the latest 12z gives snow events from the 26th onwards. I don't recall seeing that kind of turn around before   It started from the Tuesday runs and the upgrades keep coming. Let's hope it doesn't turn the other way.

[Seasonal Trim]

Hopefully a few people have learnt their lesson over chasing day 10 charts. I personally thought the forum has been horrible for the past couple of weeks.

Maybe after a few days off with some sober heads, the forum might come alive again.

[Bradley in Kent]

A very disappointing feel to the weather at the moment; there are often goose chases but this one feels especially frustrating. I think it's because it's over Christmas which always has more emotion attached, but also the way it has fallen through spectacularly with poor model performance. 

It really has felt like a lost opportunity for this winter and the last chance of an early winter trop-led legendary cold spell for many years if not forever. It might sound melodramatic but hear me out...

In the short term, a strong La Nina is kicking in increasing the chances of a mild second half of Winter. Yes, we might see an SSW but February and March aren't the same for cold. In the longer term, going towards 2023, we'll be entering a period of stronger solar activity and the next El Nino sometime in the mid-2020s. Greenhouse Gas levels are climbing and there's a lag with warming so the background warmth will re-accelerate big time this decade after the slow-down we're having at the moment. Next time we're in such position which'll be at least 10 years away (weak La Nina, low solar cycle, etc.), there'll be too much poleward energy in the trop to allow HP to build where coldies want it, not to mention an atmosphere saturated with C02 and the like. Don't get me wrong, it will snow again of course it will! But it really feels like time is up when it comes to extended cold spells in December, and the set up we had a week ago was the last chance before climate change enters its next phase! (2010 will likely be the last hurrah unless a big volcano erupts of course). 

Winter has always been a tedious season in this part of the world (early 2000s come to mind), but at least the other three seasons will generally get better as time goes by. Lose a bit win more eh?!

 

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Hopefully a few people have learnt their lesson over chasing day 10 charts. I personally thought the forum has been horrible for the past couple of weeks.

Maybe after a few days off with some sober heads, the forum might come alive again.

The cold charts from various models that had people going crazy were at least 7 days out, with various posts of ‘coast to coast red warnings’, 40cm of snow widely, etc, etc. Obviously not many posters have learnt from previous disappointments, unfortunately.

It has been so gloomy of late, over here in C Europe too. Hoping for a sunny high pressure soon, with crisp sunny days and foggy and frosty nights. 

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

Yeah, that's how I feel; the constant grey gloom, utterly grim/rancid...........The cold, crisp and blue sky days are what I favour, even over snow, but we don't get many of them either.

I think the Christmas period last year was ideal. It was cold and crisp with sunshine. But, the grey damp is something I’ll settle for. So long as it’s not ridiculously mild and sunny, then I’m ok with any outcome. 

[markyo]

Slowly turning in to another depressing Winter, quite why folk are walking around in hats,gloves and scarfs is beyond me. People still say climate change isn't real.....well mild winter after winter now in the UK surely should surely be a wake up call. Just praying no heatwave this summer.

[shunthebartlett92]

Yes I’m gonna be super defeatist, and happy to eat my words, but I’m fast getting worried that this winter could be one of the most irritating/frustrating winters in my life thus far, just not getting good vibes at all