Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think given what’s happened these past two years, something close to anything like a 1947 or 62/63 would be almost catastrophic. You have to bear in mind that most people born after 1963 haven’t experienced a winter on that scale, not even 79 or 87 was a bad in comparison, and we can barely cope with the level of severity from the last two I mentioned, which have only been equalled or better during the snowy era of 2008-13. 

You wouldn't even have to be born after 1963 to not remember that year, I suspect. Given weather memories start at (IMX) around age 5 (e.g. for me, the summer of 76 was before I was 5, and I don't really remember it), you'd realistically have to be born before about 1958 to remember it properly.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

The teens and kids born 2004 onwards probably have no recollection of any cold winters(excluding short snaps). I'm 20 and just about remember faint memories of 2009 & 2010. I wonder how they would cope with a 1963/1684/1947 type winter. I often think how younger generations would cope with cold, grey, depressing years like 1986. The old perception/stereotype of the UK having weather like that all the time + people being more used to it must have meant, while grim, people would have got on with it. If 2022 came out like 1986 I think people would think it were end times!

[Summer8906]

16 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

The teens and kids born 2004 onwards probably have no recollection of any cold winters(excluding short snaps). I'm 20 and just about remember faint memories of 2009 & 2010. I wonder how they would cope with a 1963/1684/1947 type winter. I often think how younger generations would cope with cold, grey, depressing years like 1986. The old perception/stereotype of the UK having weather like that all the time + people being more used to it must have meant, while grim, people would have got on with it. If 2022 came out like 1986 I think people would think it were end times!

I see where you're coming from about 1986 but I wouldn't quite call it cold, grey and depressing. (The latter two adjectives could fit 2021, though). February was a once-in-a-lifetime (literally I think, for those of us who cannot remember 1963) cold month with dry air and two heavy falls of snow (one on March 1st admittedly), June was warm/hot and sunny, first half of July was nice, as was the first half of autumn. Yes, there were some poor periods like early spring, August, and Nov/Dec (though the latter two were just seasonably unsettled) but it was by no means the worst ever year.

Mind you it probably helps that 1986 was during my teenage years, which are always inherently better

Edited December 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

Just now, Summer8906 said:

I see where you're coming from about 1986 but I wouldn't quite call it cold, grey and depressing. February was a once-in-a-lifetime cold month with dry air and two heavy falls of snow (one on March 1st admittedly), June was warm/hot and sunny, first half of July was nice, as was the first half of autumn.

Mind you it probably helps that 1986 was during my teenage years, which are always inherently better

As a cold lover with interest in extreme cold I don't think it would have been grim, but most people I know like warm and sunny weather. The unrelenting cold from February to April (combined with extreme dullness in some areas), then overall poor summer and one of the coldest and most unsettled Augusts of the 20th century and a cold September, I think most people would find that quite rough and a nice June might not be enough to sweeten the deal. Of course I would love a year like that to happen again. But if we're really talking cold and grey then 1879 might be more suitable. Makes 1986 look positvely balmy!

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

As a cold lover with interest in extreme cold I don't think it would have been grim, but most people I know like warm and sunny weather. The unrelenting cold from February to April (combined with extreme dullness in some areas), then overall poor summer and one of the coldest and most unsettled Augusts of the 20th century and a cold September, I think most people would find that quite rough and a nice June might not be enough to sweeten the deal. Of course I would love a year like that to happen again. But if we're really talking cold and grey then 1879 might be more suitable. Makes 1986 look positvely balmy!

True, though one also has to remember that September 1986 was very sunny. In fact that, rather than the cold, is my lasting memory of it. I have read about 1879 and yes, while the winter was certainly interesting, the rest of the year sounded pretty brutal.

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

The Met Office still seems to be going for a return to cold after Christmas Day, though perhaps not in the south until the new year. The GFS 06Z on the other hand offers no interest except perhaps around Boxing Day, and almost suggests one of the mildest starts to January on record, with no cold air of any sort, even a brief NW-ly, in the first week. 00Z is better at the end of the run, as it replaces the Tm clag with a northwesterly around the 6th, followed by a high which presumably will be 'clean' i.e. bright and frosty, unlike the recent one.

 

I'd certainly take another overhead high if it's a clean one - I feel majorly sun deprived and I feel even a run of frosts would add some interest to this waster of a winter so far!

[cj114]

43 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

You wouldn't even have to be born after 1963 to not remember that year, I suspect. Given weather memories start at (IMX) around age 5 (e.g. for me, the summer of 76 was before I was 5, and I don't really remember it), you'd realistically have to be born before about 1958 to remember it properly.

I was 16 in '76. Had just started my first job behind Canada house in Trafalgar square. We had Flexi time, so you could do 8-4 or 10-6. I would get up at 6 to be in for 8. Sometimes take 2hrs for lunch to sit in St James park to top up the tan.

When it got too hot we would go to the pub before getting on the tube around 10. The heat was unreal. But we did get used to it!

Looking back, it was a wonderful Summer.

[Chris Smith]

Ha - I too was 16 in '76, and landed my first job in August. My first task? Me and another green-horn were tasked with painting a vast south facing wall white. The tan still hasn't worn off...

[ANYWEATHER]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think given what’s happened these past two years, something close to anything like a 1947 or 62/63 would be almost catastrophic. You have to bear in mind that most people born after 1963 haven’t experienced a winter on that scale, not even 79 or 87 was a bad in comparison, and we can barely cope with the level of severity from the last two I mentioned, which have only been equalled or better during the snowy era of 2008-13. 

Well 1963 was the coldest since 1740.

[Anthony Burden]

18 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'd certainly take another overhead high if it's a clean one - I feel majorly sun deprived and I feel even a run of frosts would add some interest to this waster of a winter so far!

Hi,latest Met office Christmas weather and the run up to January mild and wet I’m afraid in most of U.K.

big turn around from their recent forecast.

[Portsmouth Sun]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi,latest Met office Christmas weather and the run up to January mild and wet I’m afraid in most of U.K.

big turn around from their recent forecast.

To be fair, they only ever gently hinted at cold weather, it was all very wishy washy. If you want a big cold ramp head over to the mad thread as they are still going and clutching at straws.

[johncam]

14 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi,latest Met office Christmas weather and the run up to January mild and wet I’m afraid in most of U.K.

big turn around from their recent forecast.

And cloudy no doubt,  haven't seen the sun since last Thursday

[minus10]

8 hours ago, John88B said:

I think there's a lot of unrealistic expectations of a British winter. Yes we've had a few severe winters over the previous hundred years but in general they're mild, damp and pretty drab. We're a tiny island on the edge of a massive ocean so it's to be expected.

People say our winters are becoming milder and maybe they are but they bang on as if the winters as recently as the 70s and 80s were constant snowy nirvana's. Trust me they weren't, they were in general pretty crap,I was there.

Think it may be a perception thing. I was growing up in 70s and 80s and looking back i seem to remember more cold and snowy winters but, certainly we had mild, damp ones as well. Maybe just not so many...however we did have many letdowns as well. One i particularly remember was back in winter of 72/73 i think when we had had a burst of Siberian north easterlies between christmas and new year...then the forecast homed in on a depression coming in from the Atlantic and moving se across southern areas with heavy snow a strong possibility. I remember this quite well as was doing a school project about it at the time. In particular I remember the radio weather forecast presented by Vic Walters in which he stated for the outlook that there were strong indications of heavy snow moving in over the south in the next couple of days. As a kid i was so excited, went to bed night before it was meant to happen only to wake up to nothing following morning. At last minute the depression had diverted into France with its snow. I was gutted, so disappointed for days after. Seems that things havent changed much in that respect. ....

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi,latest Met office Christmas weather and the run up to January mild and wet I’m afraid in most of U.K.

big turn around from their recent forecast.

Shame. Give it another week and it'll be a turbo charged westerly. The following week a plume. This winter is even more models bingo than I can remember.

[summer blizzard]

While generally optimistic for winter prospects I note that the combination of a pretty negative pdo and now (by weekly) moderate oni values is producing strongly coupled MEI values. Stronger than last year in fact.

[John88B]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Think it may be a perception thing. I was growing up in 70s and 80s and looking back i seem to remember more cold and snowy winters but, certainly we had mild, damp ones as well. Maybe just not so many...however we did have many letdowns as well. One i particularly remember was back in winter of 72/73 i think when we had had a burst of Siberian north easterlies between christmas and new year...then the forecast homed in on a depression coming in from the Atlantic and moving se across southern areas with heavy snow a strong possibility. I remember this quite well as was doing a school project about it at the time. In particular I remember the radio weather forecast presented by Vic Walters in which he stated for the outlook that there were strong indications of heavy snow moving in over the south in the next couple of days. As a kid i was so excited, went to bed night before it was meant to happen only to wake up to nothing following morning. At last minute the depression had diverted into France with its snow. I was gutted, so disappointed for days after. Seems that things havent changed much in that respect. ....

Yes I think I remember that one along with a fair few others that missed us to the south. Then again I remember events like January 82 which absolutely buried the west country and south Wales with the deepest snow I've ever seen. 

I don't doubt winters have become slightly milder but the mind remembers the cold snaps and big snowfalls and forgets all the normal mild crap in between making people believe it was much colder and snowier than it really was. 

[ANYWEATHER]

I certainly don’t think winters have got any milder. If you look back in history you will see very mild winters alternating with cold winters but mild southwesterlies or westerlies is the general wind direction for most of the year. 1954 stands out among many exceptional mild winters in the past….

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I certainly don’t think winters have got any milder. If you look back in history you will see very mild winters alternating with cold winters but mild southwesterlies or westerlies is the general wind direction for most of the year. 1954 stands out among many exceptional mild winters in the past….

On the contrary, the ever-rising 30-year means are quite clear: winters are, on average, getting milder.

[John88B]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

I certainly don’t think winters have got any milder. If you look back in history you will see very mild winters alternating with cold winters but mild southwesterlies or westerlies is the general wind direction for most of the year. 1954 stands out among many exceptional mild winters in the past….

I agree to a certain extent with this. I think we go through natural cycles of cooler and warmer weather but I'm in danger here of starting a debate that belongs on another thread.

[minus10]

10 minutes ago, John88B said:

Yes I think I remember that one along with a fair few others that missed us to the south. Then again I remember events like January 82 which absolutely buried the west country and south Wales with the deepest snow I've ever seen. 

I don't doubt winters have become slightly milder but the mind remembers the cold snaps and big snowfalls and forgets all the normal mild crap in between making people believe it was much colder and snowier than it really was. 

Yes i remember that Jan 82 one. Think some had level snow upto their bedroom windows ...incredible. Yes maybe we look back with 'rose tinted specs' ...what sticks with me also is the number of cold/icy new years eve. I often remember slipping on the ice....

[SussexSnowman]

46 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Think it may be a perception thing. I was growing up in 70s and 80s and looking back i seem to remember more cold and snowy winters but, certainly we had mild, damp ones as well. Maybe just not so many...however we did have many letdowns as well. One i particularly remember was back in winter of 72/73 i think when we had had a burst of Siberian north easterlies between christmas and new year...then the forecast homed in on a depression coming in from the Atlantic and moving se across southern areas with heavy snow a strong possibility. I remember this quite well as was doing a school project about it at the time. In particular I remember the radio weather forecast presented by Vic Walters in which he stated for the outlook that there were strong indications of heavy snow moving in over the south in the next couple of days. As a kid i was so excited, went to bed night before it was meant to happen only to wake up to nothing following morning. At last minute the depression had diverted into France with its snow. I was gutted, so disappointed for days after. Seems that things havent changed much in that respect. ....

I know the gutting feeling of missing snow. 24th Jan this year it looked like the white stuff would reach us here on the coast. Missed it by 30 miles! A friend in Tadworth had a good dumping, whilst here in Brighton rain, rain and more rain. Even my missus working in Edenbridge got in on the snow action. The phrase "there's always next year" is one I have banded for the last near 3 years since we had some here. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

I like how whenever I tell my family it might snow on Boxing Day all the models switch to rain and mild. Whenever I tell them it will probably rain and be too mild all the models flip again. I think reverse wishes are in order.

I still think New Year will be mild in any case, which would be in line with seasonal forecasts. Still room for surprises before then, though most likely expect rain and for temperatures to be too mild. 

The biggest question mark period is 26-30th. Especially for the south and west.

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

The teens and kids born 2004 onwards probably have no recollection of any cold winters(excluding short snaps). I'm 20 and just about remember faint memories of 2009 & 2010. I wonder how they would cope with a 1963/1684/1947 type winter. I often think how younger generations would cope with cold, grey, depressing years like 1986. The old perception/stereotype of the UK having weather like that all the time + people being more used to it must have meant, while grim, people would have got on with it. If 2022 came out like 1986 I think people would think it were end times!

1986 was a bleak year, I remember it feeling cold, but the June period had some hot sunny days.

I think 1980 might be a year I would hate, after what was a disappointing winter of 1979/80 following the classic cold winter of 78/79. We had a chilly March, followed by a very sunny and warmish April and May period, something similar to the 2020 spring, but not as long. A very mild dull February, a thundery June, followed by a cold dull July and a humid cloudy August. The winter that followed was another snore fest. 

 

2002 is another year of boring nothingness.

[summer blizzard]

November PDO was the most negative in November since 2011 (1st and 2nd lowest since at least 1950 for November i believe). 

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

On the contrary, the ever-rising 30-year means are quite clear: winters are, on average, getting milder.

After the cold winter of 1916-17 we had to wait 30 YEARS for another cold winter and that was in the 20th century! To say winters in the UK are getting milder is nonsene, winters in the UK have always been mild!

Edited December 22, 2021 by IceDaysAndBalticNights