Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

After the cold winter of 1916-17 we had to wait 30 YEARS for another cold winter and that was in the 20th century! To say winters in the UK are getting milder is nonsene, winters in the UK have always been mild!

So, what's your explanation of the fact that our 30-year average keeps rising?

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, what's your explanation of the fact that our 30-year average keeps rising?

Doesn't necessarily mean Winter has changed though, not disagreeing with your earlier point just saying that other factors are at force in a warming Winter including differences in energy as one of the factors, so rather than stating something about a rising average across the board find something that concludes your point, again not disagreeing with you here though 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Doesn't necessarily mean Winter has changed though, not disagreeing with your earlier point just saying that other factors are at force in a warming Winter including differences in energy as one of the factors 

Okay EE, I'll reword it: what's causing thermometers to read higher temperatures?

[Wold Topper]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, what's your explanation of the fact that our 30-year average keeps rising?

Isn't 30 years just an arbitrary figure? Could we use 100 years, 200 years etc averages can be weighted to suit any argument/narrative can they not?

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Okay EE, I'll reword it: what's causing thermometers to read higher temperatures?

Climate change is causing that but think of it this way, if we have more energy in the atmosphere in Winter because there is more drive from La Niña affecting us over here especially building up Rossby waves then they have a stronger chance of ejecting northeast much like the recent trough ejections in the USA which are showing signs of potentially once ending in having a major Winter once again further south than usual and the same kind of thing could happen over here with an 'ejecting' Rossby wave which seem to act much like troughs.Im not disagreeing with you here I'm saying for you to find conclusive proof rather than proof someone can twist 

[LetItSnow!]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Okay EE, I'll reword it: what's causing thermometers to read higher temperatures?

I think there's threads for this kind of talk  

 

Back to the here & now, as stated earlier, nothing can be known about the new year period until we get this Christmas out the way. Any confidence in a particular outcome after that is misplaced imo as we're still so uncertain of Xmas/Boxing Day even at 2 days away. This is quickly turning into the longest December I can remember!!!

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, what's your explanation of the fact that our 30-year average keeps rising?

The 30 year average means abousutly naff all that can keep rising for all I care, feb 2009, winter 2009-10, December 2010, January and March 2013, December 2017 and feb and March 2018 all produced more snow than anything I've ever seen in the 90s and early to middle to 00s in my location but that goes to show a changing climate doesn't mean less cold and snow!

[Wold Topper]

7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Climate change is causing that but think of it this way, if we have more energy in the atmosphere in Winter because there is more drive from La Niña affecting us over here especially building up Rossby waves then they have a stronger chance of ejecting northeast much like the recent trough ejections in the USA which are showing signs of potentially once ending in having a major Winter once again further south than usual and the same kind of thing could happen over here with an 'ejecting' Rossby wave which seem to act much like troughs.Im not disagreeing with you here I'm saying for you to find conclusive proof rather than proof someone can twist 

I don't pretend to no enough about weather patterns or 1% of what u guys post but from a mathematical point of view, recorded weather data is a few hundred years old, and this rock that we live on is a tad older so current climate change is a speck in the history of this sphere, i am not a climate change denier by any means, we as a species are certainly not looking after our home but using a few hundred years of data is open for scrutiny perhaps? Btw i am prepared to be put in my box

[Portsmouth Sun]

Some in the mad thread would probably believe the moon is made out of cheese at this rate.  I'm really struggling though, neither the models or forecasters ever really showed cold. Fantasy has to be balanced with a sense of realism and I believe the forum would be the better for it. 

[Derecho]

44 minutes ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

After the cold winter of 1916-17 we had to wait 30 YEARS for another cold winter and that was in the 20th century! To say winters in the UK are getting milder is nonsene, winters in the UK have always been mild!

Absolute boulderdash, UK winters ARE getting milder and your post isn't even correct. 1928-29, 1939-40, 1940-41 and 1944-45 were all notably cold winters.

The 30 year rolling average from 1992-2021 is 4.9C. 

The average during the 20th century was 4.2C

The average during the 19th century was 3.7C

The average during the 18th century was 3.5C

The average from 1661-1699 was 2.9C. Only 1 month in the last 10 years has seen a CET lower then 2.9C and that was March 2013.

So UK winters are getting milder with severely cold winters becoming less common.

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[Wold Topper]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Absolute boulderdash, UK winters ARE getting milder and your post isn't even correct. 1928-29, 1939-40, 1940-41 and 1944-45 were all notably cold winters.

The 30 year rolling average from 1992-2021 is 4.9C. 

The average during the 20th century was 4.2C

The average during the 19th century was 3.7C

The average during the 18th century was 3.5C

The average from 1661-1699 was 2.9C. Only 1 month in the last 10 years has seen a CET lower then 2.9C and that was March 2013.

So UK winters are getting milder with severely cold winters becoming less common.

 

How far back does the official trust worthy data go back? Am curious, TIA

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Absolute boulderdash, UK winters ARE getting milder and your post isn't even correct. 1928-29, 1939-40, 1940-41 and 1944-45 were all notably cold winters.

The 30 year rolling average from 1992-2021 is 4.9C. 

The average during the 20th century was 4.2C

The average during the 19th century was 3.7C

The average during the 18th century was 3.5C

The average from 1661-1699 was 2.9C. Only 1 month in the last 10 years has seen a CET lower then 2.9C and that was March 2013.

So UK winters are getting milder with severely cold winters becoming less common.

 

Like I've said they can keep getting milder for all I care I've seen more snow in the past 12 years than the last 30 so happy days, storm Emma being the best in March 2018 8ft snow drifts that lasted for weeks 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Absolute boulderdash, UK winters ARE getting milder and your post isn't even correct. 1928-29, 1939-40, 1940-41 and 1944-45 were all notably cold winters.

The 30 year rolling average from 1992-2021 is 4.9C. 

The average during the 20th century was 4.2C

The average during the 19th century was 3.7C

The average during the 18th century was 3.5C

The average from 1661-1699 was 2.9C. Only 1 month in the last 10 years has seen a CET lower then 2.9C and that was March 2013.

So UK winters are getting milder with severely cold winters becoming less common.

 

Might seem a bit off topic but I'm also interested in Spring's with people seemingly remembering the Spring's from further back as better and hotter despite the records I seem to have seen being broken. I wonder if it's true or whether but it's something to do with the mind and the fact that memory's are not exactly true of the event 

[Derecho]

Just now, Wold Topper said:

How far back does the official trust worthy data go back? Am curious, TIA

The CET I think reliably goes back to 1724, before this coverage starts getting very patchy. However from 1723 onwards, CET temps were collected daily by numerous observers all the way through to the current day. Numerous changes in observers have taken place since then, along with the need for bias adjustments but the CET is regarded as the most reliable long term data series in the world... and goes back daily to 1772.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

Like I've said they can keep getting milder for all I care I've seen more snow in the past 12 years than the last 30 so happy days, storm Emma being the best in March 2018 8ft snow drifts that lasted for weeks 

I know this from my own research but a person's memory is easily tampered with by themselves without them realising depending on theirown age a lot and their mentality or you might just be a statistical anomaly 

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Might seem a bit off topic but I'm also interested in Spring's with people seemingly remembering the Spring's from further back as better and hotter despite the records I seem to have seen being broken. I wonder if it's true or whether but it's something to do with the mind and the fact that memory's are not exactly true of the event 

Spring has seen even more of a warming trend in recent years.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I know this from my own research but a person's memory is easily tampered with by themselves without them realising depending on theirown age a lot and their mentality or you might just be a statistical anomaly 

I've got a photo from March 2nd with me standing on top of an 8ft drift if you'd like to see it? you can ask anyone in the south wales valley's but this was the most snow we have seen since 1981-92. Not having a go at you at all mate btw I'm just trying to make the point that yes our climate in the British isles is getting a little bit milder but that doesn't mean that our winters are getting any milder and more snowless.

Edited December 22, 2021 by IceDaysAndBalticNights

[Wold Topper]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The CET I think reliably goes back to 1724, before this coverage starts getting very patchy. However from 1723 onwards, CET temps were collected daily by numerous observers all the way through to the current day. Numerous changes in observers have taken place since then, along with the need for bias adjustments but the CET is regarded as the most reliable long term data series in the world... and goes back daily to 1772.

Many thanks,  what is the average winter temp throughout that whole period v where we are now , just curious to see how we sit now, TIA 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

I've got a photo from March 2nd with me standing on top of an 8ft drift if you'd like to see it? you can ask anyone in the south wales valley's but this was the most snow we have seen since 1981-92

Sure I don't mind seeing it but that doesn't mean you're talking for everyone here, snow is different across the board but especially when you take a rolling average of temps and snow days they are both going down (snow days is going down slower because of convective snow showers that can occur across the border of hot and cold but total snow falling is going down as far as I know)

[Sceptical]

15 minutes ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

I've got a photo from March 2nd with me standing on top of an 8ft drift if you'd like to see it? you can ask anyone in the south wales valley's but this was the most snow we have seen since 1981-92. Not having a go at you at all mate btw I'm just trying to make the point that yes our climate in the British isles is getting a little bit milder but that doesn't mean that our winters are getting any milder and more snowless.

NSIDC is worth checking out for reducing snowfall across the NH.

Failing that ring up the operators of the 5 Scottish Ski centres and ask them "hows business"

Edited December 22, 2021 by Sceptical

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sure I don't mind seeing it but that doesn't mean you're talking for everyone here, snow is different across the board but especially when you take a rolling average of temps and snow days they are both going down (snow days is going down slower because of convective snow showers that can occur across the border of hot and cold but total snow falling is going down as far as I know)

No mate I was talking about the west we normally always do best in battleground suituations, I do think easterlies are becoming more rare though which is most likely down to climate change, high pressure over the Azores and Europe has had a big influence over the past few years and has been a big winter killer for us in the uk

[StormChaseUK]

Down to the wire

[Wold Topper]

Hand bags in the Mad thread as usual, as a rank amateur you don't know what or whom to follow with all the bickering!

[simon65]

Hello everyone ,hows the weather looking for 25th ? ,pants by the looks of things or at least a non white one ?

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by simon65

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Hand bags in the Mad thread as usual, as a rank amateur you don't know what or whom to follow with all the bickering!

I would advise going to the alternate model discussion, it's much friendlier and offers great insight, I just haven't had the time to do a lengthy post in detail yet with all the craziness in the models going on over there myself