Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Brassmonkeylily]

Oh my ! on the Maddest of forums they  are still flogging the dead Christmas horse and giving CPR to a cold spell that has been dead in the water for 36 hours … 

[SLEETY]

Been saying the midnight runs always trend against cold then flip back 12 hours later, been happening for ages, but still the same posters throw their toys out the pram after the midnight runs come out. 

The model thread is a big joke in the winter months, best to just look at the models yourself and not read the model thread at all, with all the constant bickering and moaning in their. 

[shunthebartlett92]

On 18/12/2021 at 17:33, AderynCoch said:

Had at least 20cm last week here in tropical Bratislava; closer to 40cm in parts of the Malé Karpaty. It mostly thawed on Tuesday but even today there are still patches left in the city centre:

 

 

I think you've been unlucky. It reminds me a bit of December 2019 but in reverse; Košice had a lot of snow but there was virtually nothing here. Let's just hope the rest of this winter pans out better than that one did!

My other half is back home in Zilina and I’ve borderline asked her to stop sharing snow pictures with me! (Nothing risqué I promise ) I fly out on the 28th for NYE and not sure what to expect, but the snow in Slovakia is certainly enviable. 

Edited December 23, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[Guest]

15 degC in parts of the UK on New Years day, wonderful! Apart from the flooding of course.

 

[Don]

22 minutes ago, DCee said:

15 degC in parts of the UK on New Years day, wonderful! Apart from the flooding of course.

 

What happened to seasonal weather?! 

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, DCee said:

15 degC in parts of the UK on New Years day, wonderful! Apart from the flooding of course.

 

The record for that day is 15C in 1910 and 1922.

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The record for that day is 15C in 1910 and 1922.

Looking at this morning granted FI 14c showing for the far SE 12c showing for NW England  good chance the record could be under threat just to add this is for 31st December.

[AderynCoch]

4 hours ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

My other half is back home in Zilina and I’ve borderline asked her to stop sharing snow pictures with me! (Nothing risqué I promise ) I fly out on the 28th for NYE and not sure what to expect, but the snow in Slovakia is certainly enviable. 

I used to live in Žilina! The scenery up that way is something else. It's definitely colder than Bratislava too.

I'm flying to the UK today. It's a shame it's not looking as seasonal as it previously was, though the outlook for Bratislava is pretty boring too so I won't be missing out much.

[RJBingham]

Models showing mild, MAD thread conclusion, it's going to snow  

[cyclonic happiness]

We have lost Christmas, but have one sprig of hope in the Met Office extended outlook for January, which is going for colder than average weather, with wintery hazards and also mentions south easterly winds.

If we don't get anything, we may as well officially move the months around as March is now a Winter month and November is now a Winter month too.

Beggars belief we can get 3" of snow in November, but not December.  It always seems mild in December nowadays

[Fozfoster]

Yet another cold spell failure maybe we should just say anything over 72 hours is just for fun. This hopefully would reduce the Failure rate a bit lol Happy Christmas all. Fozzie 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Fozfoster

[Woldsedge]

14 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Beggars belief we can get 3" of snow in November, but not December.  It always seems mild in December nowadays

I know what you mean, but to be fair, even in the supposedly cold 80’s winters I can remember an awful lot of wet and mild Decembers. I guess our memories are prone to playing tricks on us to remember the very few Decembers that were actually cold. 

[stainesbloke]

Arrived back in Prague last night for Christmas, certainly feeling very seasonal here at -6°C this morning  

Shame about the possibility of UK Christmas cold going pear shaped but it was never a ‘done deal’, as some of the more experienced and sensible posters pointed out. Plenty more chances to come and with the current state of the atmosphere (no raging PV, for example), it could well be an exciting January for coldies.

[HellItsHot]

That rather depressing stat about there being more white Easters than Christmases looks safe again.
 

Well maybe not next year, Easter is on April 17th but you never know.. 

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

The 30 year average means abousutly naff all that can keep rising for all I care, feb 2009, winter 2009-10, December 2010, January and March 2013, December 2017 and feb and March 2018 all produced more snow than anything I've ever seen in the 90s and early to middle to 00s in my location but that goes to show a changing climate doesn't [necessarily] mean less cold and snow!

Oh, I absolutely agree with the bolded bit; it's an argument I have spent 20-years making! And @Eagle Eye's comments are right enough, too!

[Kentish Man]

After spending three weeks with cold teasing the final models and controls have caved in and  we are settling into the usual Christmas/New Year mild snooze feast for the next couple of weeks and no doubt beyond. A bit of snow on northern hills yawn.   

[Sceptical]

Extract from the Cairngorm 2080 study.

Headline: forecasting is an uncertain business. That aside, indications are

"There’s been ~2 °C of warming in daily minimum temperatures (at Balmoral) over the past 100 years.

In to the future it is likely there will be increased variability in snow cover over the next two decades (some very snowy winters, some with very little snow).

After this global/Scottish temperatures will have increased enough that there will probably be a dramatic decrease in the number of days of snow cover each winter"

[Frigid]

It went from looking quite cold to New Year to very mild. It's hilarious how the models just switch up on the last minute. The November cold snap was better, at least there was some snow. December 2021 won't be remembered for much, a mild frostless winter month like many others. How I wish we could go back to last year.

[Methuselah]

13 hours ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

I've got a photo from March 2nd with me standing on top of an 8ft drift if you'd like to see it? you can ask anyone in the south wales valley's but this was the most snow we have seen since 1981-92. Not having a go at you at all mate btw I'm just trying to make the point that yes our climate in the British isles is getting a little bit milder but that doesn't mean that our winters are getting any milder and more snowless.

So, what you are saying then is that, just because it snowed on March 2 2018, British winters are not getting milder? How odd! 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, what you are saying then is that, just because it snowed on March 2 2018, British winters are not getting milder? How odd! 

I'm prettt sure the 2018 Winter  overall was warmer than average so it's not even an outlier temperature wise but don't quote me on that 

[JOPRO]

F F S, You just watch those minging mild uppers count down faultlessly from the south west . Well only good thing is i have being telling the kids for the last 10 days its going to me mild a wet for Christmas ( Was building up the surprise for them when it looked like we were in for snow and cold!)

Also cant even leave the xmas booze outside to keep nice and cool.

[Gord]

I don’t know what you’re all experiencing in your locations, but the constant gloom here is getting to me more than the loss of any potential cold spell.

It’s not even broken cloud…just a thick constant layer all week keeping it fairly grim.

And the potential upcoming mild spell doesn’t look like improving it much. (Please note the careful use of the word ‘potential’. Don’t want to get dragged along with any misconceptions! Be it cold or mild ones!)

Can’t remember the last time I could see the Shropshire hills way out to the west from my location!

Edited December 23, 2021 by Gord

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

So, what you are saying then is that, just because it snowed on March 2 2018, British winters are not getting milder? How odd! 

I think what he is probably saying is that he has experienced some nice cold and snow spells so he doesn't particularly care if south westerlies came along for a week longer than they used to and if some days got to 12 degrees rather than 9 degrees in winter. 

Trying to figure out how climate change comes into play for weather patterns for the British Isles is quite tricky. After all, the warmest Christmas Day on record was 1920 in Devon. Northern Ireland had its coldest Christmas Day as recently as 2010, for example.

So how averages and means trend up doesn't really tell the whole story. Cold weather can and still does happen. It will continue to do so.

 

 

 

[shunthebartlett92]

7 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

I used to live in Žilina! The scenery up that way is something else. It's definitely colder than Bratislava too.

I'm flying to the UK today. It's a shame it's not looking as seasonal as it previously was, though the outlook for Bratislava is pretty boring too so I won't be missing out much.

I cant wait to go now. Shame the real cold spell will have abated by the time we're there but we'll get into the mountains for a day or two, so i might see a bit of the good stuff this winter at least! Any handy phrases i should learn? I've learnt a few phrases from her but my slovak is 1/10 as it stands hahaha.

[Gord]

Going to pick a little optimism out of the gloom.

A lot of people are comparing what's happened this week to December 2012. And I can see the links. December 2012 was also a rubbish month and lots of promise cruelly snatched away from us at the end.

Now I'm not a big one for comparing one winter with another when it comes to weather...but I do remember the despair on here when it all flipped to mild. And that emotional response is very similar on here this week. (Although I think it's been heightened by other events going on with us all)

Anyway...

January 2013 started off pretty rubbish and mild. The forums went quiet, my favourite walks continued to get muddier and muddier (much like they're doing now).

And then we got to mid Jan...

...and then there was that March 2013.

Feel free to join the dots.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Gord