Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[jvenge]

Just now, Bald Eagle said:

Well..thats me had enough of reading my computer programme is better than your computer programme. Someone even put they are exhausted ( makes me wonder how we won two world wars) Enjoy your Christmas everyone

Oh I dunno, it is some what of a guilty pleasure. People complimenting the GFS this morning when they were completely trashing it last week. The mental gymnastics at play is quite extraordinary. In small doses it is quite funny, but it kinda does ruin the thread.

[Evening thunder]

Another grey day in East Devon, with chilly-ish but uninteresting temps. We've had a couple clearer ends to the day but due in part to me changing location I've not seen a decent amount of sun for over two weeks (even if Lancaster had a few nice days recently). 

If we aren't going to get crisp cold weather or snow, I'd rather the Atlantic breaks through properly so we get into a mobile/westerly pattern with sunshine between the fronts. I'd rather we didn't get slow moving bands of cold rain across the south with little sun still, but that looks to be what we're heading towards.

[TwisterGirl81]

15 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Another grey day in East Devon, with chilly-ish but uninteresting temps. We've had a couple clearer ends to the day but due in part to me changing location I've not seen a decent amount of sun for over two weeks (even if Lancaster had a few nice days recently). 

If we aren't going to get crisp cold weather or snow, I'd rather the Atlantic breaks through properly so we get into a mobile/westerly pattern with sunshine between the fronts. I'd rather we didn't get slow moving bands of cold rain across the south with little sun still, but that looks to be what we're heading towards.

Yes I'm with you on that, lets face it we are the last place it tends to snow in the uk which is why it's so rare down here to get any notable snow unless on the moors.  I'd rather have storms in between clear spells.  I've not even looked at the potential snow charts on GFS as I know it'll be further up country that gets it as per usual...

[ryanoroo]

News reporter on BBC Look North just let slip that NHS workers are preparing themselves for… “one of the worst winters on record”… possibly just referring to the added pressure of covid but was said in relation to an issue being added to the covid upturn, as in, as well as covid they are preparing for… “one of the worst winters on record”… have they been clued into something as yet unreported?…… … stay safe everyone and merry Christmas to all

[SussexSnowman]

A mild wet Christmas Day it is.   whilst it was a faint glimmer of something special for the big day, it wouldn't be typically British to not answer the door when the cold comes knocking. If other parts of the UK get some white stuff, enjoy. Still hurts missing out on it back in Feb. The fine margins are unreal. All one can do is hope elements smile down on us for once.  

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

A mild wet Christmas Day it is.   whilst it was a faint glimmer of something special for the big day, it wouldn't be typically British to not answer the door when the cold comes knocking. If other parts of the UK get some white stuff, enjoy. Still hurts missing out on it back in Feb. The fine margins are unreal. All one can do is hope elements smile down on us for once.  

Mild for my location too  but I suppose there is some interest for the UK from boxing day onwards, but after that people seem to be looking at different time periods, precipitation levels, rain, snow, etc, and trying to big up a consensus that seems to be very wonky and not as good as stated. 

[SussexSnowman]

9 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Mild for my location too  but I suppose there is some interest for the UK from boxing day onwards, but after that people seem to be looking at different time periods, precipitation levels, rain, snow, etc, and trying to big up a consensus that seems to be very wonky and not as good as stated. 

Indeed. My location showing some cold weather early next week, but beyond that huge ifs and buts. Hoping the cold will dig in a bit  

[knocker]

Nurse, nurse, they are out of bed again

[BarometerCat]

wow, lots of bullish claims to know almost what exactly will or won't happen over the Christmas period etc..  

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by B-C
too long and moany

[andy989]

Its decending into the old Daily Mail weather forum in there

[Mapantz]

Happy boxing day! 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Happy boxing day! 

We all know this'll work out exactly like that, right?
We can all dream

Edited December 21, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[stainesbloke]

Did anyone find out what ‘model latency theory’ is? Not heard that one before

[Stabilo19]

Day 514 of Gloom-cember continues for London. 

2021 has been the year of rubbish high pressure systems

 

 

[SussexSnowman]

56 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Its decending into the old Daily Mail weather forum in there

I remember those days. I'm trying to remember the poster's name who lived in Braemar I think it was and copped it for always reveling in the mild winters we got for a while from 2013/14 onwards. Whomever it was made me chuckle. 

[andy989]

1 hour ago, SussexSnowman said:

I remember those days. I'm trying to remember the poster's name who lived in Braemar I think it was and copped it for always reveling in the mild winters we got for a while from 2013/14 onwards. Whomever it was made me chuckle. 

Was it something like Stodge, or similair 

[cheeky_monkey]

looks like it will be the coldest Xmas day i have ever experienced here ...highs of mid -30s and lows into the -40s..thats brutally cold even for here..have to check to see the last time it was this cold on Xmas day in Edmonton...assuming it pans out that way of course.

Edit: the coldest Christmas day on record is Dec 1917 @ -28.9c

Edited December 21, 2021 by cheeky_monkey

[Polar Maritime]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Did anyone find out what ‘model latency theory’ is? Not heard that one before

The delay before a transfer of data begins following an instruction for its transfer.

Thats the best I can do via Google I wouldn't call it a theory though..

Edited December 21, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[jvenge]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The delay before a transfer of data begins following an instruction for its transfer.

Thats the best I can do via Google.

Almost, but the latency applies to the transfer as well, not just the delay in beginning transmission, as is usually based upon the quality of connection between the points and also physical distance. That's the networking term anyway. 

I think the person who came up with that gem is probably trying to say that the data was already out of date as it was rolling out and therefore you shouldn't believe the run. Yes, even for netweather in winter that's a very creative one.

[Blessed Weather]

@stainesbloke @Polar Maritime

Model latency is the delay between a reading from the source of the starting data, e.g. a satellite or observational buoy, and that data being fed into an operational or ensemble run. Here's an extract from a GFS paper:

NOAA Direct Broadcast Data Initiative to Meet NWP Latency Requirements
The volume and coverage of polar-orbiting satellite data available to NCEP’s operational data assimilation systems depends on both the number of occupied orbits (orbital configuration) and the data latency. Both factors are critical issues for determining the accuracy and timing of NCEP’s numerical guidance. Numerical guidance is foundational to all NOAA’s forecast and warning services and future Weather Ready Nation objectives.
Data latency is critical for the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction forecast models. The use of direct readout over the Northern Hemisphere can improve latency of sounder data to less than 30 minutes, and as low as 15 minutes.
Link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiBr8KbovX0AhXIgVwKHaE1A0oQFnoECAMQAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgms-info.org%2Fdocuments%2Fdocuments-cgms%2F2067741.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1kEDRwP9GrKMjKNg5EVTYO

[Polar Maritime]

Cheers Blessed

[RJBingham]

Just when you think you've seen it all, you get weather enthusiasts trying to lecture professional forecasters, honestly, it's the forum that keeps on giving 

in the meantime, anyone know the December CET so far?  

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Just when you think you've seen it all, you get weather enthusiasts trying to lecture professional forecasters, honestly, it's the forum that keeps on giving 

in the meantime, anyone know the December CET so far?  

You shouldn't question the wisdom of the model whisperers 

[jvenge]

I think the GFS has been at the Christmas sherry for my location. No, I don't expect that to happen and I won't cry about models being crap when it doesn't.

[Seasonal Trim]

Some people need a day or two cool off in the other thread.

Where are all the decent posters from days gone by?

I know the Model thread has always been a bit trying during Winter in the past, but it seems hyper annoying this year!