Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, living in the snow starved south of England, I class a snow depth of 2 inches to be huge as everything grinds to a halt! 

It’ll certainly do that. How did it get to the stage of being excited by a drippy 2 inches? 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

It’ll certainly do that. How did it get to the stage of being excited by a drippy 2 inches? 

Climate change.....  I vividly remember thinking just prior to the 2nd February 2009 event that I 'may' see 3 inches of snow but in reality recorded a snow depth of the best part of 10 inches!  I thought at the time this was a freak event in the large teapot era, but then then 2010 came along.....

Edited December 17, 2021 by Don

[jvenge]

For the UK dwellers, the latest GFS run confines heavy snow to the Pennines on Christmas day and Christmas eve. I'd also be doubtful the snow showing for lower areas would settle. Yes, I'm aware that it's a long way out and bla bla bla, but it's just what the output shows presently.

[Weather-history]

Looked back at 2009-10 and this was GFS 0z and 12z runs of the 19th December 2009 for 29th December 2009 (240hrs ahead)

 

and how it actually turned out

 

This was the GFS 0z 12 years ago today for the 27th December 2009

Interesting to read the model thread at the time. 

 

[RJBingham]

BOOM, cold rain on Christmas day 

[simshady]

On 17/12/2021 at 06:09, RJBingham said:

BOOM, cold rain on Christmas day 

As long as it's cold, who cares?

[cobbett]

So checked the models just now and thought all looked pretty good to me for the Xmas period - then checked into the Mod thread and thought i'd ventured into a parallel universe - bizarre place  where toys being thrown if a less than BOOM chart is now being shown on an Op run

[jules216]

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

[cyclonic happiness]

The only thing which worries me about the whole thing, is the total lack of anything beasterly showing up on the long range Meto forecasts.

I know they are afraid of getting it wrong and therefore tend to only say it's going to snow around an hour beforehand, but all they've said it that it will be 'a bit below average' nothing about easterly elements?

[Nick2373]

5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

Ten days away could change? FI I think Jules.

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

So checked the models just now and thought all looked pretty good to me for the Xmas period - then checked into the Mod thread and thought i'd ventured into a parallel universe - bizarre place  where toys being thrown if a less than BOOM chart is now being shown on an Op run

Yes, I could sense teddies being readied for a mass throwing event. Puzzling, in some ways. Especially as Christmas is still over a week away.

From a selfish viewpoint, I hope it doesn’t snow in London until after Boxing Day, as I’m flying in for a work trip on the 27th and can’t be bothered with all the drama a bit of snow will cause at Heathrow. Working for an airline definitely tempers one’s love for snow over the years!

[mulzy]

8 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

Stop moaning!  Even if its 4C and rain (which is unlikely to be over much of the UK) , it's only weather.  Yes, we coldies love our snow but it's not the end of the World especially in these times.

Edited December 17, 2021 by mulzy

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

snow ❄

Edited December 17, 2021 by booferking

[Tynemouth Angler]

MOD thread is so aggressive at times.  Viewing as an outsider the “I told you so” comments and conflict of views makes it daunting at times for new members. 
Anyway, if in doubt always turn to the professional forecasters who currently still show seasonal weather for the festive period. 
‘Tis the season of good will. Merry Christmas all. 

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

Except it doesn't show cold rain .

 

[stainesbloke]

50 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Is this enough WB -NAO for you? I said it All along, now what, hope everybody is Happy with misserable cold rain and 4C.

Already had two decent snowfalls here in the Czech Republic (and Slovakia had more than we did), so feel quite lucky with seasonal weather so far, this winter. Early days yet.

[jules216]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Already had two decent snowfalls here in the Czech Republic (and Slovakia had more than we did), so feel quite lucky with seasonal weather so far, this winter. Early days yet.

There was no settled Snow in my Area this winter appart from 2x2cm that melted in 6 hours. Only narrow Strip of SW got about 10cm. It Has been the worst 1st half of december along with total snowless autumn I remember ever in my Lifetime. 

 

[stainesbloke]

14 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There was no settled Snow in my Area this winter appart from 2x2cm that melted in 6 hours. Only narrow Strip of SW got about 10cm. It Has been the worst 1st half of december along with total snowless autumn I remember ever in my Lifetime. 

 

That’s unfortunate. Didn’t last too long here, either but managed a nice, long walk in the snow both times. All gone now. It’s early days for winter so no reason to get despondent, especially in C Europe where it snows much, much more readily than in S England, for example.

[Wingman Blue]

One thing I find interesting on this thread, is how some folk will dismiss models whether they deny cold or predict it.

Then there are those that get annoyed because not much is currently happening in their area, as if the weather is some shoddy goods they bought in good faith which has now turned out to be rubbish.

I’ll stick my neck out now and say we’re getting the calm before the storm. To coin a phrase, “Keep Calm And Carry On”. 
And be careful what you wish for…

[Number 23]

Call me jaded, but seeing clean easterlies at day 9 always makes me suspicious, so I spared my family from suggestions of a white Christmas. 

I'll take the cold without snow so long as it's dry; any kind of ppn though and I'd prefer 15 degrees and a nice waft of mild air!

Still, nice to have some interest in the MOD to keep me going through covid isolation. 

[MP-R]

9 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Call me jaded, but seeing clean easterlies at day 9 always makes me suspicious, so I spared my family from suggestions of a white Christmas. 

I'll take the cold without snow so long as it's dry; any kind of ppn though and I'd prefer 15 degrees and a nice waft of mild air!

Still, nice to have some interest in the MOD to keep me going through covid isolation. 

Plus, 9 out of 10 easterlies are useless for snow. Pretty much all of the past snowy Christmas periods in my lifetime have been from northerlies.

An easterly at Christmas would at least bring a dry and cold solution, which would be preferable to cold rain.

Still just over a week to go so many many changes to come.

[Guest]

Awful model output currently, the only thing worse than cold and snowy is cold rain. At least the end of the GFS 06Z and its ensembles turned substantially milder. Hope this trend continues. 

[Don]

The roller coaster ride continues in spectacular style.....

Edited December 17, 2021 by Don

[cheeky_monkey]

lovely winters day here today -32c crystal clear blur skies ..dont mind this at all 

[Stabilo19]

Awful grey skies all week coinciding with lowest light levels of the year. It feels like dusk for the entire day. This high pressure can't bugger off to Greenland fast enough!