Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Guest]

Looking like we’ll struggle to get below average even by Xmas day down here. Unsurprising output really, even the Covid thread is sanity compared to the Mad thread at the moment. Every milder option is binned while the coldest outliers highlighted as nailed on……

[Portsmouth Sun]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looking like we’ll struggle to get below average even by Xmas day down here. Unsurprising output really, even the Covid thread is sanity compared to the Mad thread at the moment. Every milder option is binned while the coldest outliers highlighted as nailed on……

It's absurd isn't it. Each one to there own I guess, but reality has to kick in somewhere.   For what it is worth not much in the way of cold has ever been shown to be coming to the UK. I can see a lot of disappointed people in the next few days.  Xmas is likely to be a fairly mobile and mild few days with bouts of rain.

[Sunny76]

I actually don’t know why people moan about the lack of snow during Christmas in this country. The Southern regions haven’t had much snow, even during cold Christmas spells.

The last cold snowy spell during Christmas was 1981, although 1995, 2000, 2009, and 2010 were close to or just after the Christmas periods.

As long as it’s not very mild and sunny, I’ll take any combination of cold and dry, cold and cloudy, or cold and wet. 
 

Yes, I would prefer the frosty cold sunny weather of last year, when it was barely touching 2-4c during the afternoon, but we can’t always get what we wish for.

I have a feeling January might deliver the goods this time, even more so, but on top of everything that’s happen with covid and more potential restrictions, it might be a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’.

A long spell of cold snowy weather would no doubt, hamper emergency services and the general infrastructure of the country. 
 

My guess is a snow event similar to Feb 2018 will materialise sometime into January. Latvia has been much colder than normal in recent weeks, despite the slightly milder weather at the moment, but that being said there are no guarantees. 

[Portsmouth Sun]

They're really going at it hammer and tongs in the MAD thread.  But not a lot has changed, very marginal uppers the further north you are and most likely milder and wet in the south.    I can see nothing deserving of a BOOM. 

[RJBingham]

Lots of tantrums in the MAD thread 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

45 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

They're really going at it hammer and tongs in the MAD thread.  But not a lot has changed, very marginal uppers the further north you are and most likely milder and wet in the south.    I can see nothing deserving of a BOOM. 

certainly GFS is constantly showing 10 degrees for Xmas Day, and todays UKMO virtually no chance of white Xmas north of M4, cold and dry Midlands

[BarometerCat]

Its one run...that's all. 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Winter is here!!

[knocker]

Both model threads appear to be limited to relatively short range, irrespective of content, which seems to exclude other posts. Unless I'm misreading this

Edited December 19, 2021 by knocker

[Seasonal Trim]

Maybe now certain posters won't post "70% chance of coming off" for day 7,8,9 & 10 day charts. Perfect way to set yourself up for egg meet face syndrome.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Seasonal Trim

[Portsmouth Sun]

23 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Maybe now certain posters won't post "70% chance of coming off" for day 7,8,9 & 10 day charts. Perfect way to set yourself up for egg meet face syndrome.

No chance. Yet despite egg meets face syndrome, they then move onto D10 charts for some more.  At the end of the day the weather will do what it wants.  Models are just computers and do not in any way dictate what the weather will do. At no stage has any real cold covered the UK, looked like covering the UK and almost certainly won't. I'd love to be proved wrong and the whole country (or any part of the country)  gets a white Christmas, but the reality of the situation is a small island in the NE Atlantic surrounded by warm seas will always struggle to get any sustained cold.

[Froze were the Days]

So much for the heralded high pressure Xmas period which now looks increasingly unsettled...also the ec46 forecasts of a 'black hole' anomaly near Scandinavia - currently looking woefully wrong!! remember those of a week or so back?

A few usual suspects on the mad thread have been banging the cold drum of late (not for the first time) though the models have been more up and down than the Blackpool big dipper although some water to flow under the bridge current signs are certainly moving away from a cold Xmas period though not mild, something akin probably to the chilly damp fest already experiencing of the last few days. Just glad I didn't get sucked into it too much as I've been busy but might have been different into the New Year.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[winterfreak]

After a good few years on here I’ve learnt to browse the MAD thread with an eternally large pinch of salt. I said it when I joined and I’ll say it again, the models, in my opinion, are as useful as reading tea leaves for all the good they are. They give a hint of the weather and that’s about as useful as they get, especially where cold weather is concerned!!!

[Guest]

Cold was never really arriving, and it's not the models that were/are wrong. At around day 5 onwards it only takes a butterfly affect to change the outcome and when you compound the affects the chances are always against cold in a warming climate and maritime area.

If cold isn't modelled consistently from longrange it will never arrive in the short term.

[Guest]

This potential holiday cold spell was akin to rolling five doubles with two die consecutively. Very unlikely.

[snowspotter]

41 minutes ago, Laurence said:

Well I've been around since all this internet weather malarkey started, I watch the forums every autumn onwards and the same reoccurring  scenario of the models changing their out put right at the end repeats itself, and people in my view are right in getting angry and annoyed.
However the real culprit is the very models themselves and the data fed into them. Some people act as if the models  create the weather with remarks like  "the gfs is back on board again " . No for me the heart of the problem is the models ; they are just not up to it . I myself despite  what I'm saying here, was by yesterday sucked into the a xmas day start of a cold spell and  no way could all the main models be in such agreement  and then all move to a less favourable scenario  overnight with only six days to go There is still time to go but we all know how this usually ends, So for me the models in situations like this have very little value beyond two to three days. Remember before the internet and computer modelling? We got about a three day warning from UKMO via BBC television - none of this being totally absorbed and a slave to the model outputs for several weeks at a time.

Well Said. I think what your saying is don’t waste time on the model discussion thread . I’ve realised this a white back and will be posting in the moaning thread . 150 pages of ranting and raging won’t change the fact that the models are not set up for a modern world of climate change .  90% of the time  they eventually get a grip with reality at about 5 days out . I’m not interested ‘in backing this up’ I too am of a certain age and have been on here years . It’s pretty much always gonna end up wet and mild when showing cold 7 days out I wouldn’t waste energy getting fed up by it 

[Wingman Blue]

TBH, this ‘winter’s over’ scale of hyperbole is what put me off this site last year.

I’m logging off till Tuesday, when things will be clearer.

i can’t be bothered hyper-ventilating over every model switch.  Back on Tuesday.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 model threads running! only need 1

[Floatylight]

Cannot believe the utter tosh I have read on the mod thread today.

Daft lot calling it a day ,or nailing everything on so early on.

We surley know by now the models struggle with these set ups time and again.

Luckily I have been on here long enough to know who to take notice of and who talks utter twaddle.

Have to say it's been exciting model watching this year leading up to Christmas. 

And it's not over untill I start to sing  

 

Enjoy!

Edited December 19, 2021 by Floatylight

[Floatylight]

2 hours ago, DCee said:

Cold was never really arriving, and it's not the models that were/are wrong. At around day 5 onwards it only takes a butterfly affect to change the outcome and when you compound the affects the chances are always against cold in a warming climate and maritime area.

If cold isn't modelled consistently from longrange it will never arrive in the short term.

Never seen anything consistently modelled long-range in winter.

That's why long-range forecasting is not accurate.

And forecasters describe as having low confidence. 

Because cross model consensus doesn't happen a long way off??

 

Only in the shorter term do they start to singing from the same hymn sheet.

That's why nobody in there right mind who knows what they are talking about really makes any statements of fact untill only a few days out.

If even then.

 

To say somethings not going,or going  to happen 7 days out is nonsense.

Particularly with these set ups.

Models never get to grips with them.

You really don't know untill you look out the window if I was honest.

Far too many on here ,making statements and it's just too soon to be making that call.

 

[TheOgre]

It is very disappointing that Christmas is looking wet and average temperatures. I thought this would be the one after seeing the forecast a few days ago. Nevertheless it’s still only weather and I’m going to enjoy Christmas regardless.

It will happen one day.

[Floatylight]

18 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

It is very disappointing that Christmas is looking wet and average temperatures. I thought this would be the one after seeing the forecast a few days ago. Nevertheless it’s still only weather and I’m going to enjoy Christmas regardless.

It will happen one day.

Don't write anything off just yet..

Edited December 19, 2021 by Floatylight

[johncam]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

So much for the heralded high pressure Xmas period which now looks increasingly unsettled...also the ec46 forecasts of a 'black hole' anomaly near Scandinavia - currently looking woefully wrong!! remember those of a week or so back?

A few usual suspects on the mad thread have been banging the cold drum of late (not for the first time) though the models have been more up and down than the Blackpool big dipper although some water to flow under the bridge current signs are certainly moving away from a cold Xmas period though not mild, something akin probably to the chilly damp fest already experiencing of the last few days. Just glad I didn't get sucked into it too much as I've been busy but might have been different into the New Year.

Let's be honest when was the last time the models got it right 5 days or more in advance never mind the long term models .What happened to the high pressure that was forecast over us for a few  weeks not that long ago now looks like high pressure over Europe after Xmas with temps well above normal 

 

 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest when was the last time the models got it right 5 days or more in advance never mind the long term models .What happened to the high pressure that was forecast over us for a few  weeks not that long ago now looks like high pressure over Europe after Xmas with temps well above normal 

 

 

They do it all the time when weather is boring and predictable.

[TheOgre]

3 hours ago, Floatylight said:

Don't write anything off just yet..

It looks really mild on Thursday