Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[mb018538]

I'll be glad to see the back of this high pressure, that's for sure.

Got to be one of the worst highs I've ever seen here, we've got puddles on the roads and pavements like it's been pouring with rain from some active Atlantic weather fronts. In reality its just 3-4 days of constant fog and drizzle in the air that has had the same effect. Absolutely rotten.

[ChannelThunder]

Wow, the last 24 hours' runs have truly killed off any hope of Christmas snow at least for the southern half of the country. Dare I even look in the mad thread...?

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I'll be glad to see the back of this high pressure, that's for sure.

Got to be one of the worst highs I've ever seen here, we've got puddles on the roads and pavements like it's been pouring with rain from some active Atlantic weather fronts. In reality its just 3-4 days of constant fog and drizzle in the air that has had the same effect. Absolutely rotten.

Agreed, what a complete waste of high pressure at this time of year. Problem is, a return of the Atlantic would just bring equally boring weather with the added bonus of rain, so could really do with a sunny high pressure for a while! 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 20/12/2021 at 06:53, mb018538 said:

I'll be glad to see the back of this high pressure, that's for sure.

Got to be one of the worst highs I've ever seen here, we've got puddles on the roads and pavements like it's been pouring with rain from some active Atlantic weather fronts. In reality its just 3-4 days of constant fog and drizzle in the air that has had the same effect. Absolutely rotten.

That's the trouble with highs at this time of the year.

It's great when they deliver those beautiful fresh, crisp sunny days. But instead, we often end up having anticyclonic gloom.

[winterfreak]

MAD thread now elated again as it’s showing them what they want. What a bloody pantomime 

[Woldsedge]

The GFS 06hr is a Stella run! * Sits back in armchair with cigar and glass of Baileys in the knowledge that this run is nailed on and all the others are wrong*

[cobbett]

A run has never been 'binned' when against all other models its showing cold and snow

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, cobbett said:

A run has never been 'binned' when against all other models its showing cold and snow

The only rule you need to know around here in winter. If it's a cold and snowy one, it's great. If it's mild or unsettled, more runs and caution needed, and it's probably an outlier.

[mb018538]

55 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

That's the trouble with highs at this time of the year.

It's great when they deliver those beautiful fresh, crisp sunny days. But instead, we often end up having anticyclonic gloom.

Usually need them to build from the north for that with colder and drier air. This one built up from the south with all the usual muck thrown into the mix.

[cobbett]

Abandon all hope for anyone in the south

[Bald Eagle]

10 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Abandon all hope for anyone in the south

I need to get to the rugby on boxing day so no snow is great...

 

Don't let anyone in the madhouse know I said that

[Bradley in Kent]

Yes it looks like no cold spell for the South but I will be pleased to see this high pressure go; very, very gloomy! 

Early winter really is a horrible time of year in NW Europe where only a small selection of synoptics delivers bright weather. Still, in a months time the days will start to get noticeably lighter then the February warmth in the sun will return!

My, I am looking forward to Spring!

[Tynemouth Angler]

MOD thread is a great read but always worth backing up with Metoffice or Beeb. They’ve been slightly ahead with the turn to less cold for Christmas/boxing day for most of the country. 

[Portsmouth Sun]

Where is the actual cold coming from?  Some on the MAD thread say it is nailed on. Lots of mild SW air wafting over the country by the looks of things.

[Woldsedge]

52 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Where is the actual cold coming from?  Some on the MAD thread say it is nailed on. Lots of mild SW air wafting over the country by the looks of things.

I’m not even going to look at the MAD thread tonight. I like to keep my sanity intact

[Brassmonkeylily]

Agree ...they have lost the plot  big time in the MAD thread ,,in all my time on this forum I have never seen so many dead horses flogged and such unrealistic claims ........its now clear we are not having severe cold spell and we are back to good old climatology ...the 10 day out hunt for coldaphilia has began in earnest ....

[jackpunch]

I rarely post. I've had an account for 15 years and I reckon this is my 2nd post. When I joined the Model threads were full of really good assessments of the latest charts. Occasionally biased, but for the main very educational and great reading. Over the last few years as NW has become more popular it's diluted the quality massively unfortunately. Way, way too much "great charts at 168  blizzard conditions, power outages, country will grind to a halt, it reminds me of 1963"...juxtaposed with " Atlantic steaming through at 168, hairdryer conditions, say goodbye to winter"...now why is that. Is it people have less understanding or too many people see what they want to or too many people seeking attention hence post some bonkers extremes irrespective of it legitimacy. Regardless, a times the Model thread is almost unreadable. Which is such a shame given how it used to be.

[Eastbourneguy]

Evening all, some absolute filth available on the 18Z ensembles for between Christmas and New Year, not for the faint hearted. Can't wait to be told off by the family on Christmas day while I'm glued to my phone watching the latest runs rolling out!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 20/12/2021 at 23:25, Eastbourneguy said:

Evening all, some absolute filth available on the 18Z ensembles for between Christmas and New Year, not for the faint hearted. Can't wait to be told off by the family on Christmas day while I'm glued to my phone watching the latest runs rolling out!

Only a weather enthusiast would understand. 

[Roger J Smith]

If only there were computer models of weather that could tell you what might be coming. It seems like that was tried by people but it didn't work so now we just guess.

 

[Sceptical]

BBC Weather

Thursday will be a milder day for many, but it will continue cloudy and wet in Scotland throughout. Further south, it will turn drier with sunny spells. Friday will be a wet and windy day for most as outbreaks of heavy rain move in from the west. Christmas day will be another wet day in the south, particularly across the west. Scotland may stay dry with some brighter spells.

an hour ago

Met Office.

Bright start in east but cloud spreading across the country from the west. Rain arriving into Northern Ireland by lunchtime then spreading across Scotland, then Wales and northwest England later.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Unsettled; bands of rain affecting most areas, these turning to snow in parts of the north. Windy, with a risk of gales Friday and Saturday. Mild start, colder later.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 21 Dec 2021

Netweather MOD thread

"Snow storms and a big freeze"

 

[shunthebartlett92]

8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

BBC Weather

Thursday will be a milder day for many, but it will continue cloudy and wet in Scotland throughout. Further south, it will turn drier with sunny spells. Friday will be a wet and windy day for most as outbreaks of heavy rain move in from the west. Christmas day will be another wet day in the south, particularly across the west. Scotland may stay dry with some brighter spells.

an hour ago

Met Office.

Bright start in east but cloud spreading across the country from the west. Rain arriving into Northern Ireland by lunchtime then spreading across Scotland, then Wales and northwest England later.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Unsettled; bands of rain affecting most areas, these turning to snow in parts of the north. Windy, with a risk of gales Friday and Saturday. Mild start, colder later.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 21 Dec 2021

Netweather MOD thread

"Snow storms and a big freeze"

 

I mean, that was written just before the new output this morning, I could see a better update this afternoon if things stay as they are! Let’s see what Marco and Matt say, and see if Met4Cast feels a bit more optimistic this morning

[jvenge]

33 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I mean, that was written just before the new output this morning, I could see a better update this afternoon if things stay as they are! Let’s see what Marco and Matt say, and see if Met4Cast feels a bit more optimistic this morning

I ignore most people posting in the thread but sometimes (well okay, all the time) its better to just look at the outputs yourself. GFS this morning shows a snow event beginning the very early hours of boxing day. 

But it has very poor support on the ensembles. I'll let the model whisperers guess the rest.

[cobbett]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I ignore most people posting in the thread but sometimes (well okay, all the time) its better to just look at the outputs yourself. GFS this morning shows a snow event beginning the very early hours of boxing day. 

But it has very poor support on the ensembles. I'll let the model whisperers guess the rest.

Quite  -  GFS + Snow forecasting = 

[Bald Eagle]

Well..thats me had enough of reading my computer programme is better than your computer programme on the mad thread. Someone even put they are exhausted ( makes me wonder how we won two world wars) Enjoy your Christmas everyone

Edited December 21, 2021 by Bald Eagle