Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[summer blizzard]

December QBO was the most negative since August 2018. Q4 was the most negative since 2014. 

[ANYWEATHER]

People's perceptions of winters can easily be skewed.  I'm my lifetime I can remember just a few notable winters....where I live. 1981/82 ,notable, 1987 , notable but lasted only a few days and As I was working outside digging trenches in the frozen mud and ice it's firmly etched on my mind....  nothing that notable in the 1990s ,2010 was notable, but there has been loads of other snow events in my lifetime ,since the 1990s....

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well most winters since 1988 have been milder than the long term average prior to that time, apart from occasional blips around 1991, the mid 1990s and 2009, 2010 and 2013.  Apart from the odd colder blips on those occasions, most other winters of the last 30 odd years have been mild with only occasional short colder spells.

Also a good number of winters earlier in the 20th century were mild especially in the 20s and 30s. Cold weather in winter is always the outsider, but on occasion does occur, often unexpected.

What I find depressing about the UK winter, is the endless dull sky, lack of sunshine. Must be one of the dullest climates in the world.

[Eugene]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

A two day toppler then 10 days later a 1 day toppler in between mild nothingness mostly  that's it if the GFS is correct , let's hope not 

There's hardly any mild on GFS 12Z, very misleading post. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

December QBO was the most negative since August 2018. Q4 was the most negative since 2014. 

It just goes to show that although a negative QBO likely helped northern blocking to occur last month, the pattern still did not come together to bring a cold spell to Britain.  

[johncam]

6 minutes ago, Eugene said:

There's hardly any mild on GFS 12Z, very misleading post. 

Up here we have 3 cold days and rest normal or above so hey if that's what you think I don't have a problem with that each to their own mate 

Edited January 3, 2022 by johncam

[mpkio2]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It just goes to show that although a negative QBO likely helped northern blocking to occur last month, the pattern still did not come together to bring a cold spell to Britain.  

A very negative eQBO can lead to more mild weather during Winter for UK, as GavWeatherVid's demonstrated in his Winter Update videos on YouTube. I think the QBO has over ridden any other background factors. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

As is often the case, I wouldn't be surprised if we have to wait until March or April for winter proper to arrive, which by that point will be too late.

We do get good synoptics in this country. Trouble is, they are often at the wrong times of the year.

 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

As is often the case, I wouldn't be surprised if we have to wait until March or April for winter proper to arrive, which by that point will be too late.

We do get good synoptics in this country. Trouble is, they are often at the wrong times of the year.

 

March and April is the new winter now! 

[Frigid]

We need an April 2021 style month synoptically. If only that month occurred now, we'd be in the freezer. 

[MP-R]

57 minutes ago, Don said:

March and April is the new winter now! 

Uhh... is it? Have spent good portions of the last 5 Aprils sat in the sun as if it were early summer! 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Uhh... is it? Have spent good portions of the last 5 Aprils sat in the sun as if it were early summer! 

Was tongue in cheek.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

We need an April 2021 style month synoptically. If only that month occurred now, we'd be in the freezer. 

Spring is the season when northern blocking is most likely, its the driest season on average, Atlantic and jetstream at its weakest. From mid Feb we tend to see more northern blocking, cyclonic weather, northerly airstreams..pity they come rather late in the day bit they do pack a punch. December and January sadly tend to be governed by westerly airstreams always have been on average.

[sukayuonsensnow]

I've accepted that we probably won't get a January cold spell, and if we do it will be either transient or the models will go into rollercoaster mode like they did with the Christmas period. I'm not expecting much in the south of the UK at least, maybe some wet snowflakes this week for some lucky few.

Given that various seasonal forecasts have stuck to the script and continued to do so for January I would start looking for signs of what will happen into February. February is the month of interest where cold/snow is concerned, specifically between the 5-15th February. (Seasonal forecasts indicate a very mild end to February, and perhaps a mild wet start)

I probably won't watch much models until at least the middle of January.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

I've accepted that we probably won't get a January cold spell, and if we do it will be either transient or the models will go into rollercoaster mode like they did with the Christmas period. I'm not expecting much in the south of the UK at least, maybe some wet snowflakes this week for some lucky few.

Given that various seasonal forecasts have stuck to the script and continued to do so for January I would start looking for signs of what will happen into February. February is the month of interest where cold/snow is concerned, specifically between the 5-15th February. (Seasonal forecasts indicate a very mild end to February, and perhaps a mild wet start)

I probably won't watch much models until at least the middle of January.

Shades of 98-99 winter at present, that one started with a bit of snow early from.a northerly.. bit like end Nov start to Dec.. rest of Dec mostly mild with one or two further northerly outbreaks. Jan 99 mostly mild but with some polar maritime air about 9th to 11th.. similar to coming days... Feb 5-11th brought a cold snowy northerly airstream and some sharp frosts... mmm we might see something like that at least. 

[LetItSnow!]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Shades of 98-99 winter at present, that one started with a bit of snow early from.a northerly.. bit like end Nov start to Dec.. rest of Dec mostly mild with one or two further northerly outbreaks. Jan 99 mostly mild but with some polar maritime air about 9th to 11th.. similar to coming days... Feb 5-11th brought a cold snowy northerly airstream and some sharp frosts... mmm we might see something like that at least. 

January 1999 also had an exceptionally mild spell like the one just gone with 16+C recorded on the 6th. It was the second January in a row with a spell of record high temperatures. 

[Summer8906]

I think the thing is that we don't necessarily expect a 1963, 1979, 1985 or 1987 winter every year.

It's the frequency of extreme mild, damp and dull winters which is the problem.

In recent years: 2013/4, 2015/6, 2019/20 and now (though perhaps February will offer something different) 2021/22. That's perhaps 4 years in the last 9 to be in the 'extreme Atlantic-driven' category.

If we had one of these extreme Atlantic winters with the frequency that we get a proper cold winter like (as a recent example) 2009/10, I suspect few would complain.

Remember that the supposed long-term mean max for southern England is 7C, so if it's above 10 most of the time with only short single-figure episodes (e.g. the next few days) that isn't exactly normal. In recent years I'd class 2017/8 as a classic 'normal' winter.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Summer8906

[Weatherman_93]

Hope all the mild lovers like myself enjoyed those crazy temperatures over the Christmas period?

[sukayuonsensnow]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Shades of 98-99 winter at present, that one started with a bit of snow early from.a northerly.. bit like end Nov start to Dec.. rest of Dec mostly mild with one or two further northerly outbreaks. Jan 99 mostly mild but with some polar maritime air about 9th to 11th.. similar to coming days... Feb 5-11th brought a cold snowy northerly airstream and some sharp frosts... mmm we might see something like that at least. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Sounds like that is probably what will happen, although looking at TWO's seasonal forecast a cold spell in February focused on eastern and southern UK would indicate an easterly or maybe northeasterly - though a northerly with a favourable low pressure slider/channel low may also work. Note most of this forecast so far has been right including the Xmas/New Year period.

Severe frosts (-10c or lower) would only happen either with exceptionally cold air or deep snow cover (widely 15cm+ across a widespread area) or both. The BFTE in 2018 was notable for its cold air, temperatures stayed around -9/-10c even under cloud cover and while snowing where I live in the south.

Having only been a toddler myself in the 98-99 winter, did the middle of January have a period of high pressure and drier weather for a time? 

[Lord Grogon]

We have sleety blobs in the deluge. So exciting! This is what winter is all about....

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I think the thing is that we don't necessarily expect a 1963, 1979, 1985 or 1987 winter every year.

It's the frequency of extreme mild, damp and dull winters which is the problem.

In recent years: 2013/4, 2015/6, 2019/20 and now (though perhaps February will offer something different) 2021/22. That's perhaps 4 years in the last 9 to be in the 'extreme Atlantic-driven' category.

If we had one of these extreme Atlantic winters with the frequency that we get a proper cold winter like (as a recent example) 2009/10, I suspect few would complain.

Remember that the supposed long-term mean max for southern England is 7C, so if it's above 10 most of the time with only short single-figure episodes (e.g. the next few days) that isn't exactly normal. In recent years I'd class 2017/8 as a classic 'normal' winter.

Yeah, at least blocked & quite cold weather can still occurr in the UK. Feb 2018 and last winter proved that.

[MP-R]

48 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

 

Having only been a toddler myself in the 98-99 winter, did the middle of January have a period of high pressure and drier weather for a time? 

January 1998 turned anticyclonic from midmonth after the stormy start. January 1999 on the other hand was exceptionally wet pretty much throughout. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Sounds like that is probably what will happen, although looking at TWO's seasonal forecast a cold spell in February focused on eastern and southern UK would indicate an easterly or maybe northeasterly - though a northerly with a favourable low pressure slider/channel low may also work. Note most of this forecast so far has been right including the Xmas/New Year period.

Severe frosts (-10c or lower) would only happen either with exceptionally cold air or deep snow cover (widely 15cm+ across a widespread area) or both. The BFTE in 2018 was notable for its cold air, temperatures stayed around -9/-10c even under cloud cover and while snowing where I live in the south.

Having only been a toddler myself in the 98-99 winter, did the middle of January have a period of high pressure and drier weather for a time? 

Yes, TWO's forecast has been pretty good so far.  Hopefully it stays on track for February!  

Btw, have seen a bit of sleet mixed in the rain this morning and feels jolly cold after recent days!.

[SussexSnowman]

Happy New Year one and all. Hope everyone had a great Christmas. 

Absolute dross weather down here on the coast last couple of weeks. Days of constant rain with mist and fog. Just ugly. I hope there are clearer skies on the horizon! 

[summer blizzard]

Since we usually get this debate every year about Atlantic horridness, I decided to look at Q1 data since 2000 to see if any winters over or underperforned.

ONI, QBO, CET outcome. Below, Neutral, Above.

ONI

00 - Strong Nina 

01 - Weak Nina

02 - Neutral

03 - Weak Nino

04 - Neutral

05 - Weak Nino

06 - Weak Nina

07 - Weak Nino

08 - Strong Nina

09 - Weak Nina

10 - Strong Nino

11 - Mod Nina

12 - Weak Nina

13 - Neutral

14 - Weak Nina (undeclared but -0.5)

15 - Weak Nino

16 - Strong Nino

17 - Neutral

18 - Weak Nina

19 - Weak Nino

20 - Weak Nino (undeclared but +0.5)

21 - Mod Nina

 

QBO

00 - Weak Westerly

01 - Mod Easterly

02 - Weak Westerly

03 - Neutral

04 - Neutral

05 - Neutral

06 - Mod Easterly

07 - Neutral

08 - Weak Easterly

09 - Mod Westerly

10 - Strong Easterly

11 - Weak Westerly

12 - Mod Easterly

13 - Neutral

14 - Mod Westerly

15 - Strong Easterly

16 - Weak Westerly

17 - Mod Westerly

18 - Strong Easterly

19 - Weak Westerly 

20 - Neutral

21 - Weak Westerly

 

CET

00 - Above

01 - Below

02 - Above

03 - Neutral

04 - Neutral

05 - Above

06 - Neutral

07 - Above

08 - Above

09 - Below

10 - Below

11 - Above

12 - Above

13 - Below

14 - Above

15 - Neutral

16 - Neutral

17 - Above

18 - Below

19 - Above

20 - Above

21 - Below

 

If we look at the ONI and QBO then we get a set of winters that in isolation should be gold and others which should be horrific. 

 

Should be okay

01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 12, 13, 15, 18, 19, 20

Should be bad

00, 08, 09, 10, 11, 14, 16, 17, 21

 

What did we see matching to our bad list first. 

00, 08, 11, 14 and 17 performed as expected. 

09, 10, 16, and 21 overperformed (09, 10 and 21 produced a cold month in Q1, 16 being pretty average).

 

For our good list now.

01, 03, 04, 06, 13, 15, 18 all performed as expected. 

02, 05, 07, 12, 19 and 20 underperformed producing a warm month.

 

What we see here is firstly that just using the ONI and QBO about 60% of winters performed as expected. But we have also performed colder than expected as well as worse (09, 10 and 21 were low solar however, 02, 05 were active solar).