Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Tn9]

4 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

To be fair, it's true. Set the scene, it's February 2008. We'd just gone through 10 years of warmer than average winters with cold spells a rarity (if you count 1995 & 1996 as flukes then you could argue 16 years). I wasn't old enough to even use the internet properly at the time but I can only imagine the atmosphere on weather forums at the time. I've looked at old NW posts from 2006-2007 and I don't think anyone believed a cold winter was ever going to happen again, and to be fair you couldn't blame them. The freak warm spell from May 2006 to June 2007 was still fresh in memory and seriously challenged any expectations of normality in our climate (a spell still unbeaten up to now, imo.). But then the winter of 2009 came, not a severe one by any means but it was cold. Then the following winter came, then the December to remember, then the other cold spells of that time (also with cool summer periods frequent too). The point is that there isn't much of a difference to what people were saying then and what they're saying now. We've seen record cold spells occur across the world in the past five years, even in the UK in 2018. We know it can still happen. Scandinavia has been having it quite cold so far. Even April and May 2021 challenged our ideas of never having appreciably colder than normal months in the warmer parts of the year. The point I'm making is that to write off the rest of the decade, century, heck even the rest of January, is nonsensical. We know things are different now, but I do not believe we are incapable of very cold spells or even a very cold winter. It's gonna happen eventually, maybe even soon. Whether it'll be a 1963 redux.... prefer a1684 myself 

Or even if it never comes to it again ..a 1664 waiting for our stella chart and relax and say sod it ..:-)

Edited January 7, 2022 by TN9

[Tn9]

16 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I have a love/hate relationship with that one!

Only you know more than the gfs ..you know your patch better than it does for sure. if you don't think it will it more more likely won't

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, SussexSnowman said:

I do recall even in the early 2000's 2 snow events which were in March 2001 I think (might be over on the month) and in Feb 2005 here on the coast. The winter of 1999/2000 was awful. Non-stop rain from late October to nearly March in 2000. Plain yuk and even though at that time I was 19, it did feel like a turning point for more milder winters that followed. 

From 2009 to 2013 down here we had decent snowfall events. Since then aside from the BFTE 2018 and a cold day in Jan 2019, there's been a real snow drought. It does feel like that will be the trend that we have 6-7 relatively snowless winters and then maybe a small cluster of 2-3 winters with more snow events. I still hold a candle we could see something this winter (wishful thinking if anything else ).

I think that’s probably what people thought it winter 1979-80. 
 

After the snowy winter of 78-79, the following winter was fairly mild, apart from the cold January, and the early part of December 79 was extremely mild.

Wasn’t this from the period when the music video for ‘Another brick in the wall part 2’ was made.  The weather looks quite mild and the students are wearing t shirts.

 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, SussexSnowman said:

I do recall even in the early 2000's 2 snow events which were in March 2001 I think (might be over on the month) and in Feb 2005 here on the coast. The winter of 1999/2000 was awful. Non-stop rain from late October to nearly March in 2000. Plain yuk and even though at that time I was 19, it did feel like a turning point for more milder winters that followed. 

From 2009 to 2013 down here we had decent snowfall events. Since then aside from the BFTE 2018 and a cold day in Jan 2019, there's been a real snow drought. It does feel like that will be the trend that we have 6-7 relatively snowless winters and then maybe a small cluster of 2-3 winters with more snow events. I still hold a candle we could see something this winter (wishful thinking if anything else ).

I think that’s probably what people thought it winter 1979-80. 
 

After the snowy winter of 78-79, the following winter was fairly mild, apart from the cold January, and the early part of December 79 was extremely mild.

Wasn’t this from the period when the music video for ‘Another brick in the wall part 2’ was made.  The weather looks quite mild and the students are wearing t shirts.

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 07/01/2022 at 09:13, Climate Man said:

Can't edit.  Should read above average 

Typos are very easily done. But I know what you meant.  

Edited January 7, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[SummerShower]

We just need to get lucky with the synoptics.  If we get cold synoptics in winter there will be cold air to tap into.  

I always thought as the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics became less (due to climate change) it would weaken the polar vortex and hence allow more blocking patterns.  Haven't seen it yet.  Maybe I'm missing other factors. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

I think to have a level head, look at the MO long range forecast, as well as the seasonal forecasts issued by Netweather and TheWeatherOutlook. Not that these will be on the money, but in terms of general trends they will be closer to the mark.

GFS will be all over the shop with the positioning of high pressure, ranging from cloudy and temperatures close to average, to showing a foot or more of snow in Hampshire from an intense snow storm at 384 hours like the other day.

High pressure will build later next week, and I think temperatures should remain close to average, maybe slightly above further west and slightly below east. Maybe a few wintry showers might reach some eastern areas after mid month from the east or northeast as the high moves west/northwest enough.

I think towards the end of month and early February will be often wet and potentially mild at times.

The crucial period for any jackpot winter weather is between 5-15 February for me. There could be surprises either side of that, but if nothing happens during 5-15 Feb then Winter 21/22 is a bust.

It will be interesting to see MO's long range updates in the next few days as that period comes into view.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 hours ago, SummerShower said:

We just need to get lucky with the synoptics.  If we get cold synoptics in winter there will be cold air to tap into.  

I always thought as the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics became less (due to climate change) it would weaken the polar vortex and hence allow more blocking patterns.  Haven't seen it yet.  Maybe I'm missing other factors. 

It's almost that you have to win the lottery just to get a chance, I think climate change is definitely one of the main factors, though there's probably many other factors in play which I don't understand about.

Who knows, maybe next year we might get lucky after all

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

In plain English for us numpties, please can you, or someone else explain the link between sun spots and our weather, i.e. why would a sun spot, solor flair, whatever reult in a mild spell for the UK? I can guarantee somewhere at out lattitude will be very cold over the next 8 weeks, so why is this bad for the uk? TIA. 

Northernlights beat me to it and explained in nice and easy to understand fashion

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’ll ensure the US endure more tecord snow and cold.  No it’s actually going to help things down the line….next 10 days ECM and GEM more on the money for me

 

BFTP

I hope you are right but could you please explain how it will help us down the line? 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

Since when have 35 sunspots matered for cold outcome in Europe? Our last cold december 2001, last cold winter 2002/03, last snowiest winter 2012/13, all happened during high or rising solar activity. I know UK did not get much from all, but solar activity on its own should not override things at 5 days forecast period. The last cold winter here is 2002/03, last not hot summer is 2005 and cold autumn 2007. Its a combination of post global warming factors - Haddley Cell expansion and cooling stratosphere - earth trying to reach equilibrium of warmer troposfere with cooling stratosphere. If teleconnection like solar would have such direct effect in short term weather, why does the supposedly amazing combo of EP La Nina and -QBO not have any in slowing down zonal winds whatsoever? Its a one way direction for us in Europe and that is mild most of the time. There were believes that low solar cycle stage is positive for cold because of 2010 cold spells, now we are past another solar minimum 2019-2022 and how many cold winters or even cold months has it produced? For me I Can say 2018/19,2019/20,2020/21 and now 2021/22 all yield about +1.5C overal mean winter temperature. And a mix of EL Nino,ENSO Neutral,Moderate basin Nina,EP Nina, basically Non of that matered for different outcome. There is no need to single out one factor as solar, its just like this. I have stopped counting when was the last cold summer here,actually its 1990!

 

 

 

 

 

Solar activity is less critical for Eastern Europe. That's all I can say on that one. 

[Sleet30031972]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Solar activity is less critical for Eastern Europe. That's all I can say on that one. 

So "solar activity" (something that happens 147.11 million km away from Earth) has, you say (checks notes) a significant impact on the weather in the UK  but not for Eastern Europe (about 2000 km away). Whilst interesting it seems something of a pseudo science with little real meteorological interest.  

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

So "solar activity" (something that happens 147.11 million km away from Earth) has, you say (checks notes) a significant impact on the weather in the UK  but not for Eastern Europe (about 2000 km away). Whilst interesting it seems something of a pseudo science with little real meteorological interest.  

Hey ho. Each to their own. We all have our own opinions no matter what the topic and that's the way it should be. 

[LetItSnow!]

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Just out of curiosity, how old are you?

I remember the late 2000s and early 10s producing arguably the best winters since 1995, 91 or even the mid 1980s era.

Feb 2009, Jan 2010, November and December 2010, Feb 2012, and January 2013 all produced snowfall, even in the London area. 
 

I don’t think the 1980s even gave London that many years with snow in a row.

Even the mid 2000s during that warmer phase after 1997 still gave us one day snowfalls in January 2003, thunder snow in January 2004(although didn’t last more than an hour or so) and March 2005 produced a light covering. 
 

Even last winter gave us one day of snow across west London and other areas, so like you, I believe a widespread snowfall will happen again. 
 

It’s almost the same as waiting for another 2018 summer, it will happen again, but a summer with a one week hot spell and several warm weeks mixed in with cloudy humid or cool conditions is the order of the day since 2019.

2022 will hopefully give us a sunnier summer, or at the very least a sunny clear late spring and early summer similar to 2020.

Winters have become milder since late 1987, however I would argue our summers have not become much better since the same period. Really nice sunny summers are few and far between, and the last good one was 2018. 

I’m a relatively young member being 20 years old. My first memories of weather only begin in the mid-2000s  

[Laurence]

4 hours ago, Sleet30031972 said:

So "solar activity" (something that happens 147.11 million km away from Earth) has, you say (checks notes) a significant impact on the weather in the UK  but not for Eastern Europe (about 2000 km away). Whilst interesting it seems something of a pseudo science with little real meteorological interest.  

So the sunlight that hits the earth from 147.11 million miles away has no bearing with what take place on the planet as its so far away

[jvenge]

8 hours ago, Sleet30031972 said:

So "solar activity" (something that happens 147.11 million km away from Earth) has, you say (checks notes) a significant impact on the weather in the UK  but not for Eastern Europe (about 2000 km away). Whilst interesting it seems something of a pseudo science with little real meteorological interest.  

Well the sun's influence on weather isn't psuedo science.

Also Eastern Europe doesn't need high latitude blocking for cold weather, where as for the UK its kind of a must, unless a ridge sets up in a perfect place. 

[Weather-history]

I see solar activity is being mentioned in the model thread. I see where they are coming from, so I personally don't dismiss it entirely but it comes a cropper the theory when 4 of the great winters of the 20th century happened near solar maxima

Winter 1916-17    maximum Aug 1917

Winter 1928-29    maximum April 1928

Winter 1946-47   maximum May 1947

Winter 1978-79  maximum December 1979

 

Another one: Winter 1894-95   maximum January 1894

Can solar experts explain this?

 

Further look at the deep minimum of 1911-14 and the winter CETs during that period

1911 5.0 

1912 5.1

1913 5.3

1914 5.2 

1915 4.3

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope you are right but could you please explain how it will help us down the line? 

The ‘loops’ of the meridional jetstream don’t remain in the same place.  So somewhere that’s cold will switch to mild and vice versa

 

 BFTP

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I see solar activity is being mentioned in the model thread. I see where they are coming from, so I personally don't dismiss it entirely but it comes a cropper the theory when 4 of the great winters of the 20th century happened near solar maxima

Winter 1916-17    maximum Aug 1917

Winter 1928-29    maximum April 1928

Winter 1946-47   maximum May 1947

Winter 1978-79  maximum December 1979

 

Another one: Winter 1894-95   maximum January 1894

Can solar experts explain this?

 

Further look at the deep minimum of 1911-14 and the winter CETs during that period

1911 5.0 

1912 5.1

1913 5.3

1914 5.2 

1915 4.3

 

 

Well from my side it’s not about the Shwabe 11 year cycles, it’s more to do with the overlaying longer Grand cycles like Gleissberg etc. and whether you are entering, in it or leaving it.  And a good point is it isn’t only about the UK, it’s about the behaviour of the jetstream and how it becomes much more meridional generally….so somewhere will get anomalous unusual cold and some unusual warmth.  Coming just through the minima of an even and not odd cycle also appears to be relevant. (Looking more into that).

 

BFTP 

Edited January 8, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I see solar activity is being mentioned in the model thread. I see where they are coming from, so I personally don't dismiss it entirely but it comes a cropper the theory when 4 of the great winters of the 20th century happened near solar maxima

Winter 1916-17    maximum Aug 1917

Winter 1928-29    maximum April 1928

Winter 1946-47   maximum May 1947

Winter 1978-79  maximum December 1979

 

Another one: Winter 1894-95   maximum January 1894

Can solar experts explain this?

 

Further look at the deep minimum of 1911-14 and the winter CETs during that period

1911 5.0 

1912 5.1

1913 5.3

1914 5.2 

1915 4.3

 

 

Similar with La Nina and El Nino. We all know what the theoretical likely outcomes are, but things can happen to override it. 

For the UK it happens to such an extent that someone shouldn't feel confident in El Nino and uneasy at La Nina. 

 

[Evening thunder]

Only one day (5th Jan) with a decent amount of sunshine amount in the last 4 weeks here (East Devon). This has to be about the dullest period of weather I have experienced. To add to that, I was in Lancaster before mid December which only seemed to get about 1 day per week with decent sunshine in October and November (a lot less than Devon got).

I have said to people from abroad that the UK weather isn't quite as bad (i.e. always rainy/grey) as sometimes portrayed.. I might have to take that back.. maybe this almost perpetual dullness has contributed to some down moments I've had recently. Maybe I actually have SAD for the first time I've noticed in my life.

and this is the forecast:

 

[Guest]

The MAD thread still just plan MAD and delusional. It’s a repulsive day outside a bit like the model output really. Plenty of rain, occasional and transitional wintriness over the high ground but any cold seems unlikely.

Im already starting to get twitchy that any cold weather won’t start appearing until when we don’t want it in March or April. Could well do without another April/May combo like last year (although the Sun in April was welcome) 

[RJBingham]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The MAD thread still just plan MAD and delusional. It’s a repulsive day outside a bit like the model output really. Plenty of rain, occasional and transitional wintriness over the high ground but any cold seems unlikely.

Im already starting to get twitchy that any cold weather won’t start appearing until when we don’t want it in March or April. Could well do without another April/May combo like last year (although the Sun in April was welcome) 

Oh I dunno, it's cracking entertainment, and we've got the non fantasy thread to give us something realistic. 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

Standard winter fare really, cool at times, rarely cold nationwide. Zero sign of a proper freeze. With the jet stream likely to fire up as a result of east coast US cold, systems pushing in off the Atlantic bringing in changeable conditions often wet and windy. I’m glad I’m not the only one failing to see positive signs for sustained cold anytime soon. Really informative post, enjoy reading your analysis.

 

All the best 

You're not the only one seeing things these ways as you put it as we see it, but it's Getting tedious when, once again, mild wins out. Seems that whenever the USA do well out of it, we end up getting the dregs. The Jet stream or its northern arm is extremely active and will likely stay that way all the whilez because of those lows America keep pushing out. The high cannot get a hold the poor thing.... Its boring plain and simple.... bless the USA  

Edited January 8, 2022 by PiscesStar

[sukayuonsensnow]

5th-15th February is the make or break of this winter.

And right on cue from Met Office........

 

[lassie23]

The latest weather model output can be summoned up nicely in a smiley