Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Nick L]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

You’ll be struggling to find that golf ball in that fog if it comes apparent, thats if your still finding your way to the green that’s is

Can't stand golf so bring it on 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Fortunately there was a lot of frost and some fog down here. Cold frosty spells included:

27th Nov - 05th Dec

27th-30th Dec

02nd-06th Jan

17th-27th Jan

There was also a brief cold northwesterly that brought fleeting snow on the second Friday, and an even tamer easterly with snow flurries in early Feb. The rest of Feb was boring though.

This winter has a long way to go to even provide that down here.

Yes mid to late January from memory was frosty and quite cold and we had a snowfall early 17th that was gone by evening. Overall though it was an exceptionally benign winter here, little in the way of storms or heavy rain and often just mild grey and damp. It was a relief though after the disaster of Dec 2015.

[sukayuonsensnow]

2 hours ago, Don said:

The last day of January and 1st day of February saved that winter for me.  However, it was still very poor as it promised much!

Agreed! A very localised area between Bristol and Bagshot close to the A303/M3 got a pretty nice snowfall!

It did promise more but instead we were having BBQs in February.......

Edited January 11, 2022 by sukayuonsensnow
typo

[mountain shadow]

The hunt for cold continues, and we now look to see whether February can shift the UK high to somewhere more enjoyable for us.

I hope the high is not three weeks of cloud and murk. 

[markw2680]

The high won’t just sit over us for weeks and weeks lol, when in reality does it ever do that? Give it a few days and see where the next move is, whatever the models are showing now in 7 days time pretty much guarantee that won’t be what actually happens. This thread sometimes

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

The hunt for cold continues, and we now look to see whether February can shift the UK high to somewhere more enjoyable for us.

I hope the high is not three weeks of cloud and murk. 

Don't we all.. Fed up to the back teeth of things not quite making it.. Etc etc or the last minufe flip to boring default Atlantic westher. The PV looks solid and the lobe sitting over USA and Canada does not hi g to help as per usual. In fact, if the USA are doing well I find we do CRAP 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

The high won’t just sit over us for weeks and weeks lol, when in reality does it ever do that? Give it a few days and see where the next move is, whatever the models are showing now in 7 days time pretty much guarantee that won’t be what actually happens. This thread sometimes

Yes true things can change in 96hr nevermind a week lol

[weathercold]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Well after that 00z set I think we can quite firmly close the doors on any wintry weather in the next 8 days / 19th January.

Not a surprise - been evident for days. I mentioned a few days ago Jan prospects look bleak. The current charts take us to the tail end of Jan now. Another winter month ticked off with nothing to write home about, bang average. All rests on early Feb for winter proper, the window is closing fast. 
Really poor models for anyone wanting wintry weather. 
It’s back to chasing rainbows …tough winter to accept this considering the high hopes/signals back in November.

Edited January 11, 2022 by weathercold

[jules216]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Although only -6 c this morning it feels much colder than that with a biting wind and full cloud cover. A day ventured not far from the wood burner me thinks. Anyway back to the models, I certainly would not give up a Northerly for the second half of the month. The ECM chart below at 144t still keeps the TPV to the NE and the high pressure cell to the west of the British Isles. Further adjustments are likely in the day to day runs this week. Experts over here still thinking of a fall in height eventually over Europe even though the main models do not presently indicate that. Pressed on the reasoning behind that, they think the TPV over NE Europe is likely to become more expansive and influential into the second part of the month. Still the British Isles on the inside looking out for real cold for the time being. Another area of uncertainty towards the end of next weekend is the positioning of lower heights out in the Western North Atlantic,currently 50/50 of over ride of the high cell or undercut. So although the models seem very bland for you lot they are not without interest looking a bit further ahead. So think at the moment rather cold remains the theme with the potential for upgrade still there.

C

Are they thinking that the lower would be sustained from the initial plunge of vortex on the 17.01 or there will be more attemts afterwards? I am kind of in the mood now of not anticipating anything re.natural Snow as its cold enough for artificial skiing and skating like this as lack of snowfall makes for clear snowfree skating on the lakes - quite rare

[North-Easterly Blast]

It appears that this winter is turning out to be one of those winters where there is a fair amount of blocking to the north of us, like just before Christmas and what is progged for the next week or so, and a fair amount of cold air near the UK, but the pattern just is not setting up favourably to bring a significant cold spell to the UK, with the failed cold spell in the second half of December and what looks like to be another failed cold spell from this coming weekend.  If there is a good amount of cold air near to the UK and a couple of attempts so far at getting blocking into the right places, yet it still manages to deliver next to nothing in terms of significant cold in the UK.

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Are they thinking that the lower would be sustained from the initial plunge of vortex on the 17.01 or there will be more attemts afterwards? I am kind of in the mood now of not anticipating anything re.natural Snow as its cold enough for artificial skiing and skating like this as lack of snowfall makes for clear snowfree skating on the lakes - quite rare

Hi Jules, nice photo. Our lake is snow covered but very little sunshine so far this month. Think Tues/ Wed we have snow in the forecast but not a great amount . Thereafter, lets hope we see some lowering of heights push south and west as currently not being dismissed by our forecast service providers.

C

[mb018538]

Just can't win with the UK. Been a very non-zonal autumn and winter.....and still no cold!

Oh well, only 7 weeks of meteorological winter left to go...almost halfway through. Another non event so far.

[Guest]

Well got to say, my longer range forecasts have been bang on. More so than any professional or amateur on all threads in here. I've learnt to look at the models with unfiltered eyes - no matter how painful that is.

January was always looking to be a non-starter for cold due to the energy from the states spewing out. 

February looking to be rinse and repeat but likely much wetter in my opinion as the vortex returns to stay in the usual area for the remainder of our winter. 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 11/01/2022 at 08:55, mb018538 said:

Just can't win with the UK. Been a very non-zonal autumn and winter.....and still no cold!

Oh well, only 7 weeks of meteorological winter left to go...almost halfway through. Another non event so far.

Which is why the weather is very topical in the UK and we all enjoy moaning about it so much. 

Knowing our luck, we'll probably get the best wintry conditions in March or April when it's too late.

[Spah1]

11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Nothing rubbish about it. Cannot be discounted.

Yes it can. No support. Rogue run. 

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Which is why the weather is very topical in the UK and we all enjoy moaning about it so much. 

Knowing our luck, we'll probably get the best wintry conditions in March or April when it's too late.

Not sure about luck - a weaker vortex in March and April as it starts to disappear usually leads to colder air wandering further than it does at the height of winter when it gets wrapped up far away to the north for most of the time.
White Easter more common than white Xmas and all that. But yes - frustrating!

[Easton Luna Boys]

6 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The hunt for cold continues, and we now look to see whether February can shift the UK high to somewhere more enjoyable for us.

I hope the high is not three weeks of cloud and murk. 

Yes, although all about perspective and perception of course. The positives are that there will be a lot of usable weather to get ahead with all of those garden jobs before the buds of Spring. Excellent conditions for walking and of course, the real boon is that there won't be a particularly onerous burden on our heating systems, be that central or otherwise, so cheaper bills all round. Great for old folk and drivers alike

[knocker]

For the benefit of any statisticians. Just to note that “possibly the biggest turn around in the history of NW” cropped up today for the 45th time since 2010.

[damianslaw]

The frustration with this winter so far if you are after snow and cold is the fact we have seen a generally weak Atlantic influence and lots of blocking and cold up tap into; but nothing has fallen quite right. Alot easier to stomach when the Atlantic is in overdrive.. we have strong potential for significant cold next week but the odds look stacked against it and instead we see more blocked but benign weather.. we shall see I always think chance of sustained cold increases second half of winter. 

[Stabilo19]

God what an awful day. 1030 mb high pressure with drizzle and low visibility.. Hope this is not another cloudy damp high!

[RJBingham]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

For the benefit of any statisticians. Just to note that “possibly the biggest turn around in the history of NW” cropped up today for the 45th time since 2010.

46th time, just around the corner 

[sukayuonsensnow]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The frustration with this winter so far if you are after snow and cold is the fact we have seen a generally weak Atlantic influence and lots of blocking and cold up tap into; but nothing has fallen quite right. Alot easier to stomach when the Atlantic is in overdrive.. we have strong potential for significant cold next week but the odds look stacked against it and instead we see more blocked but benign weather.. we shall see I always think chance of sustained cold increases second half of winter. 

February is make or break for this winter, guess we will have to wait and see......

[CoxR]

all models looking pretty 

[richie3846]

I'm personally loving this winter so far. My measure of a good winter is different from many, as my work means I spend a good amount of time outside, and a good amount of time driving in rural settings, which often bare the brunt of weather disruption. 

This winter (and autumn) has ticked almost every box in this area:

No floods so I can drive without worrying about screwing up a 9k engine and getting sacked.

No notable snow so I don't break my neck or break my vehicle, or lose pay with snow days.

No bitter cold, which is horrid when working in exposure.

Little in the way of wind, which is tough going when working in it for a whole day.

Damn yes it has been cloudy and boring, but those days aren't that bad when I'm out in it most of the day, very usable and comfortable.

 

The last two winters were plagued with flood rains, much runoff from fields, closing lanes and occasionally main roads. The year before that we had the beast from the east which was really quite nasty to work in. I'm very grateful for this quieter winter, as dull as it may be.

 

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I'm personally loving this winter so far. My measure of a good winter is different from many, as my work means I spend a good amount of time outside, and a good amount of time driving in rural settings, which often bare the brunt of weather disruption. 

This winter (and autumn) has ticked almost every box in this area:

No floods so I can drive without worrying about screwing up a 9k engine and getting sacked.

No notable snow so I don't break my neck or break my vehicle, or lose pay with snow days.

No bitter cold, which is horrid when working in exposure.

Little in the way of wind, which is tough going when working in it for a whole day.

Damn yes it has been cloudy and boring, but those days aren't that bad when I'm out in it most of the day, very usable and comfortable.

 

The last two winters were plagued with flood rains, much runoff from fields, closing lanes and occasionally main roads. The year before that we had the beast from the east which was really quite nasty to work in. I'm very grateful for this quieter winter, as dull as it may be.

 

 

 

Hope a quiet atlantic driven winter isn't exchanged for an unsettled Spring and Summer!