Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Don]

40 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The latest weather model output can be summoned up nicely in a smiley

If you are wanting a BFTE then yes.  However, they are not showing a Bartlett with temps in the mid to upper teens or stormy/mild weather.

[Skullzrulerz]

45 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The latest weather model output can be summoned up nicely in a smiley

I suppose really it depends on you're favourite weather, personally if we can't get snow or cold weather, I would love to see some storms in the mix.

Makes a change from being damp and meh weather.

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

If you are wanting a BFTE then yes.  However, they are not showing a Bartlett with temps in the mid to upper teens or stormy/mild weather.

Some snow before winter is out would be nice and a break from the norm.

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I suppose really it depends on you're favourite weather, personally if we can't get snow or cold weather, I would love to see some storms in the mix.

Makes a change from being damp and meh weather.

I have had gloom rain and more gloom down in London since late November, lol

[Don]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Some snow before winter is out would be nice and a break from the norm.

Plenty of time for that though, even if it isn't necessarily sustained and after all, us southern beggars can't be choosers!

Edited January 8, 2022 by Don

[NEVES SCREAMER]

BBC app has nothing extreme for next 16 days.  Just some standard chilly UK winter days with occasional mild. The odd frost. Takes us to final third January. Nights drawing out. Snowdrops. Buds on Hawthorn hedges. Spring is in the air

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

BBC app has nothing extreme for next 16 days.  Just some standard chilly UK winter days with occasional mild. The odd frost. Takes us to final third January. Nights drawing out. Snowdrops. Buds on Hawthorn hedges. Spring is in the air

That makes perfect sense to me, as I can't see anything extreme in any of the models. Some can, but I can't!

[Don]

15 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

BBC app has nothing extreme for next 16 days.  Just some standard chilly UK winter days with occasional mild. The odd frost. Takes us to final third January. Nights drawing out. Snowdrops. Buds on Hawthorn hedges. Spring is in the air

Until March arrives and boom comes winter proper, throwing those poor daffs into jeopardy! 

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

BBC app has nothing extreme for next 16 days.  Just some standard chilly UK winter days with occasional mild. The odd frost. Takes us to final third January. Nights drawing out. Snowdrops. Buds on Hawthorn hedges. Spring is in the air

A typical UK Winter - it really is. Cold Winters, esp south of N England, are a rarity. Those Xmas cards picturing frozen, snowy Victorian scenes have a lot to answer for. However, try telling that to the internet weather junkie hoardes in the Mad thread, led on by the 'usual suspects'. 

"The Earth is flat!" he says. 'He' said so, therefore it must be.

[Weather-history]

Makes you proud to be British...sunbathing in December   (6th December 1953)

[Weather-history]

57 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

I've got 14 pages of posters on ignore, makes the MAD thread almost bearable. 

Too many people think " the weather" starts "1st November and ends 28th February"  Weather is all year round, that's a fact. 

And one or two give this detailed analysis during winter and promptly disappear come March. Why? There was one poster who did this right up to the start of Beast from the East in 2018 and never made another post until the start of the following winter season?!? They spent all winter giving their model analysis, one of the biggest  winter weather events of the 2010s is about to strike and they never made another post.  Bafflling.

[stainesbloke]

Anyone craving chilly weather with snow, just nip over here, 4th snowfall of the season and currently -2°C 

[Nick L]

Just worth repeating, this is not the thread to whinge about the quality of posts in the model thread. If you aren't happy with the quality of the posts, then you're very welcome to make your own excellent contributions. If you think posts are off topic or go against the forum guidelines in some way, then hit report and we'll deal with it.

[Fozfoster]

 looks cold in about a weeks time

[Evening thunder]

This shows how dull December was:

(even duller for me, I missed the 4 days of decent sun in Exeter early in the month, and a few days of decent sun in Lancaster just after I came down to Exeter.. Exeter Airport had 3.8 hours of sun after 10th!!)

[Summer8906]

On 07/01/2022 at 16:36, Sunny76 said:

I think that’s probably what people thought it winter 1979-80. 
 

After the snowy winter of 78-79, the following winter was fairly mild, apart from the cold January, and the early part of December 79 was extremely mild.

Wasn’t this from the period when the music video for ‘Another brick in the wall part 2’ was made.  The weather looks quite mild and the students are wearing t shirts.

 

 

Not sure but the song was no.1 at Christmas 1979 which might suggest the video was made earlier, in say the autumn.

[Summer8906]

20 hours ago, Alderc said:

The MAD thread still just plan MAD and delusional. It’s a repulsive day outside a bit like the model output really. Plenty of rain, occasional and transitional wintriness over the high ground but any cold seems unlikely.

Im already starting to get twitchy that any cold weather won’t start appearing until when we don’t want it in March or April. Could well do without another April/May combo like last year (although the Sun in April was welcome) 

Yes, I'd class April last year as really good, thanks to the dry air, beautiful sunsets and around 10 days of constant strong sun from mid-month - but I don't mind coldish weather in early/mid Spring, as long as it's bright. May on the other hand.. the worst since 2007.

 

People have talked about consistency of temps Feb-Mar-Apr in the past, and this does seem to be the case often, with some exceptions (e.g. 2016 mild Feb-coldish Mar-coldish Apr). So, if the rest of the winter is mild I suspect March will be mild also, as cold Marches seem to be preceded by cold Februaries and mild winters seem to be followed by mild Marches. In particular I suspect March will be mild and sunny if the rest of the winter is mild, which is something we haven't had for a while despite being common from 1990-2014. On the other hand, a cold April could still be possible following a mild March.

If cold arrives in Feb then I suspect a cold early spring will follow, but May could still be warm and sunny (see 2018).

Edited January 9, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 07/01/2022 at 16:37, Sunny76 said:

I think that’s probably what people thought it winter 1979-80. 
 

After the snowy winter of 78-79, the following winter was fairly mild, apart from the cold January, and the early part of December 79 was extremely mild.

 

 

This was followed by another fairly snowless - but bright and dry - winter in 1980/81 but one which still had one good snow cover on Feb 21st where I was in NW Sussex. It did thaw by afternoon, though.

Of course things changed then, with every winter from 1981/2 to 1986/7 having good snow, with the exception of 1983/4 which down here was mostly a wet-and-windy-fest with a colder more anticyclonic Feb.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Summer8906

[Seasonal Trim]

Been a loooong Winter in these parts with little weather of interest. The days on end of gloom has really taken its toll on my interest. 

I'm now starting to get that little twinge in my bones for a bit of spring warmth. I don't usually get that until the last 3rd of Feb!

Come on Winter! Give us Southerners something to remember!

[Frigid]

Have a feeling this January will be quite similar to 2015. Mild start, cold zonality later in the month, though this month may see anticyclonic influence creating inversion. overall quite cool with decent frosts. 

[Nick L]

Could well be on for the dullest first half of winter on record (both in terms of sunshine amounts and snow interest!).

[Staffmoorlands]

6 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 06z Op for Tue 18th

Decent looking 2 day Northerly setting up for 17th and 18th on the GFS 06z Op   

Decent for those living in Denmark and Germany. Nothing special for the UK and gone within 48hrs

[Bristawl Si]

Wasnt sure where to post this update, but to save toys being thrown of the prams in the model discussion thread i've placed it in here.

DTN, formerly, MeteoGroup have changed their Rest-of-Winter forecast - it is the one BBC use these days. Its original Winter forecast went for a more wintry outlook than the Met Office one. "There will be more wintry precip days than normal".

However, yesterday they admitted the firm's outlook had altered: "we've kept this winter a little more mild than the initial forecast

"The polar vortex has been a little stronger than initially indicated

"As a whole we are anticipating around average temps"

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Decent for those living in Denmark and Germany. Nothing special for the UK and gone within 48hrs

I'd agree about duration - it's a toppler ,there is little prospect of a HL block to promote anything other ..

I'd say uppers of -12 from a Northerly in this set up are quite rare though..

 

[weathercold]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well im sure someone more knowledgeable than me can explain but crudely there is a strong vortex and lots of energy ( low pressure systems) spinning away across the Atlantic to allow blocks to form where we want them - Scandy / Greenland.

Unfortunately nothing sustained on offer bar a day or two of chilly weather.

It’s been a common pattern this winter, rinse and repeat. Zero chance of HLB with the current setup and this is needed to deliver what most of us crave - sustained cold and snowy conditions.

[knocker]

Dr Simon Lee tweeted

December 2021 absolutely obliterated the ERA5 record for number of days assigned to the "Arctic Low" (also known as "Pacific Ridge") North American weather regime: 29 days. The previous record holder was 24 days in 1984. 29 days is the average for all of DJFM!

This is computed by minimum Euclidean distance assignment of the 4 clusters of the k-means solution of the leading 12 EOFs of daily 00Z linearly-detrended ERA5 1.5° DJFM Z500 anomalies in 20-80°N 180-30°W over Jan 1979-Dec 2021

 

I have to admit I couldn’t have put it better myself.