Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Updated_Weather]

I guess people can’t remember times when the outlook changed to a more colder outlook at short notice.

I mean chasing 10+ day charts are always pointless. Always about the pattern and where we can go from there.. but writing off Jan already is completely bonkers.

day at a time. 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

I guess people can’t remember times when the outlook changed to a more colder outlook at short notice.

I mean chasing 10+ day charts are always pointless. Always about the pattern and where we can go from there.. but writing off Jan already is completely bonkers.

day at a time. 

Don't think anyone is writing Jan off but it Dosnt look great synoptics wise does it

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Thing is Ali you keep saying 10 day charts have potential. They actually don't mate

Agree , day 10 charts are so far into FI, especially lately, that they won’t come off. However charts showing dire mild charts also won’t come off - therefore anything can still happen, but mild more likely obviously !! 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I guess people can’t remember times when the outlook changed to a more colder outlook at short notice.

I mean chasing 10+ day charts are always pointless. Always about the pattern and where we can go from there.. but writing off Jan already is completely bonkers.

day at a time. 

It happened for this latest cold spell. So it happening again is not out of the question. It just doesn't look very likely at the minute.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Agree , day 10 charts are so far into FI, especially lately, that they won’t come off. However charts showing dire mild charts also won’t come off - therefore anything can still happen, but mild more likely obviously !! 

OK but can you see anything wintry in the next 10 days on the charts. If things can change why arnt the MetO picking up on it 

[swfc]

If there was this thread would be buzzing Ali. It just looks like an east to west movement of low pressure. Granted the PV isn't rampant but the nhp isn't great. Wish it was

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It happened for this latest cold spell. So it happening again is not out of the question. It just doesn't look very likely at the minute.

Latest cold spell???? What was that. Tia 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

There will very likely be a couple of coldish winters like 2017/18 and 2020/21 in the next 5 years.

Neither of those two winters were what could be described as being cold overall - they were both close to average or even just above by historical standards, although both of them had cold wintry episodes at times.  We have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as being cold overall, or at least bringing a significant and reasonably long lasting cold spell to the UK since 2012-13.  If just after solar minimum and with an easterly QBO, and only a moderate east based La Nina we still cannot get a winter that brings a significant cold spell to the UK, then certainly the UK's weather patterns have significantly changed since 2013, and if this winter as a whole delivers only short lived cold snaps and a bit of snow for favoured areas, as it has done so far, then there is certainly a big question mark as if it is ever possible for a significant prolonged cold spell to develop in the UK ever again.

[weathercold]

The clock is fast ticking down on this winter and right now we are stuck in a major rut.

The writing (for Jan) has been on the wall for some time, the current dire output is no surprise.

I mentioned a few days ago I couldn’t understand some of the overly positive posts regarding potential cold. It’s not been there, bar the odd model run. When the outlook is bleak for cold and snow we all have a tendency to over amplify the odd run or ensemble permutation.

When you take all evidence into consideration and look at probabilities (rather than possibilities) it’s been clear as mud there has been next to nothing to lend any confidence for wintry nirvana. The current set up just won’t allow for HLB to build.

Instead we are chasing  mid Atlantic ridges (allowing for brief northerly topplers), before the jet overruns matters and we return back to westerlies and unsettled conditions.

I can’t see any signal for deep sustained cold any time soon, quite the opposite.

Where does this all lead us- likely Feb and March to deliver. I can’t see an SSW saving winter cold sadly.

Into Feb the sun gains strength quickly and the days are getting longer.

Our key window is shortening fast with nothing overly wintry in sight.

There are zero building blocks in place for HLB/deep cold - we are chasing scraps currently.

call me negative/glass half empty - it’s realisms sadly. Nothing would make me happier to call for key signals to deep cold and snow - it’s just not there and hasn’t been there for some tine.

It is what it is - a standard Uk winter in full effect.

The chase continues…

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by weathercold

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

The seasonal forecasts all lean towards an interesting February at least.

1-5 Feb Unsettled and mild

5-15 Feb Low pressure gives way to cold E/NE bringing cold weather and some significant snow for some (Not necessarily all) Uncertainty on the timing but somewhere around 5-7 Feb the transition takes place

16-28 Feb Turns less cold/mild from the southwest, perhaps preceded by snow as the rain bumps into cold air. Turns very mild or potentially warm by end of month, as seems to be tradition in recent Februarys, a very cold/very mild end to month.

Really hope this is true would be magical at Center parcs for my half-term break there with the white stuff, I've had 2 snowy center parcs breaks before once at the old Oasis in Cumbria xmas week and once at Elveden forest at Christmas, what seasonal models are supporting this then?

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I just knew as soon as that Christmas cold spell failed to materialise that we were in deep doo doo this winter.

I know, it was similar in December 2012 but we had a SSW early January 2013, something we do not have now......

[ANYWEATHER]

Whatever model you are looking at there is one thing certain tonight .....Day ten Won't Happen...!!!

[AderynCoch]

Back in Slovakia with -2C and light powdery snow. 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,tomorrows charts will be better ,echo echo echo , its frustrating i know this model watching ,Think every type of  winter imaginable could land on the table over the next 2 months or so . As far as the current charts are telling us its high pressure dominated ,then somewhere around 8 to 10 days a possible northerly as low pressure from the Arctic possibly drops south ,details yet to be modeled nearer the time .I just love the smell of Arctic Air , snow flurries in the wind ,510 Dam lines , model output meltdown , getting the met office on board etc ,the hunt for cold is still on gang .GFS next up ,yes Stellas all round ,ps  and sausage baps for all if models all flip tomorrow cheers . 

[damianslaw]

Nearing half way mark winter 21-22 already (if you class it as 1 Dec - 28 Feb) (I mark it ending 21 March, which means we are not half way..), anyhow, what has been notable so far is the generally weak atlantic, following the theme set since Dec 2020. We've had a few bouts of wind and rain, but nothing major, and we are staring at a quiet outlook this week with high pressure, this despite a very strong PV, lots of cold air pooling out of NE USA seaboard - would expect rapid cyclogenisis and storms.. we may well see a much more unsettled second half to winter, but normally the first half is much more unsettled than the second half.

[Norrance]

A moan from me about the expected weather this week. Where I am on the East side of Scotland a high centred over England just brings completely nondescript weather. We don't get the mild damp windy weather that Northern Ireland and Western and Northern Scotland get but then again we don't get the clearer air with frost and fog that further South are likely to get. Instead we will have average to cool temps with little variation between night and day. Will feel mild in any breaks in the gloom though during the day and also a tad cooler at night. A Winter waster for me as even if the high does influence us more inversions will set up not helping the snow cover at altitude but maybe as a small consolation giving some good photo opportunities. Not looking like the high will move to anywhere more favourable in the foreseeable either. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

A moan from me about the expected weather this week. Where I am on the East side of Scotland a high centred over England just brings completely nondescript weather. We don't get the mild damp windy weather that Northern Ireland and Western and Northern Scotland get but then again we don't get the clearer air with frost and fog that further South are likely to get. Instead we will have average to cool temps with little variation between night and day. Will feel mild in any breaks in the gloom though during the day and also a tad cooler at night. A Winter waster for me as even if the high does influence us more inversions will set up not helping the snow cover at altitude but maybe as a small consolation giving some good photo opportunities. Not looking like the high will move to anywhere more favourable in the foreseeable either. 

Welcome to what the South of England have had to suffer with since May 2021!

[sukayuonsensnow]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Really hope this is true would be magical at Center parcs for my half-term break there with the white stuff, I've had 2 snowy center parcs breaks before once at the old Oasis in Cumbria xmas week and once at Elveden forest at Christmas, what seasonal models are supporting this then?

Again there is uncertainty on the timing and transitions into the cold spell and out of it.

TWO seasonal forecast here: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

(Been right so far, including the Xmas/New Year period, and looks like it will continue to be right for the next couple weeks at least)

Netweather seasonal forecast here: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

 

(Been close at certain points, but also toyed with ideas that the models have ended up picking up, like the potential with the Xmas/New Year period. It also suggested an increasing chance of blocking mid to late January with potential for a cold spell, whether this just means high pressure and a few wintry showers remains to be seen. Indications of a colder end of January whereas TWO goes for a mild, unsettled spell end of January/beginning of February.)

Both suggest much of the first half of February will be cold and often dry, though TWO highlights a more substantial snow risk and subsequent severe frosts for eastern and possibly southern UK for a time. Both indicate a very mild end to February. Despite this TWO are saying colder than average for February, so the cold spell would have to be quite potent (probably a BFTE) to make the month colder than average despite the rather mild start and end to the month.

So far TWO has been a little closer than Netweather, but both have done well on these. Netweather less keen on snow risk, but does have more leniency towards a blocked pattern and perhaps being colder than average for a longer period.

In summary, remainder of winter:

Netweather: More encouragement towards blocked, cold periods with high pressure close by, but whether that means snow remains to be seen.....

TWO: Similar, but more likely to have mild, unsettled periods especially towards the end of January/beginning of February, and then a more significant cold spell for a week or so after.

Interestingly the Met Office recently have also been upgrading their long range forecast to favour the February potential. The wording is more leaning towards TWO.

 

 

 

[Paul_1978]

Well, I’ve been watching the models runs as always, and based on this weekend’s output, what can I say, an absolute bore fest coming up in the next week to 10 days!

Lets hope in the absence of any real action that we can at least get some pleasant sunny days and make use of the daylight hours outdoors without being wet or cold. 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Paul_1978

[Eugene]

12 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Neither of those two winters were what could be described as being cold overall - they were both close to average or even just above by historical standards, although both of them had cold wintry episodes at times.  We have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as being cold overall, or at least bringing a significant and reasonably long lasting cold spell to the UK since 2012-13.  If just after solar minimum and with an easterly QBO, and only a moderate east based La Nina we still cannot get a winter that brings a significant cold spell to the UK, then certainly the UK's weather patterns have significantly changed since 2013, and if this winter as a whole delivers only short lived cold snaps and a bit of snow for favoured areas, as it has done so far, then there is certainly a big question mark as if it is ever possible for a significant prolonged cold spell to develop in the UK ever again.

Lol, you do know how long the british isles could be around for right? 

[sukayuonsensnow]

Just had a glance over the stratosphere thread.

I think the million dollar question is this. Can we get a notable cold spell this winter without a SSW happening? Or more curiously, could a SSW do more harm than good to our synoptics? (ie. it would bring the very mild end to February that is suggested by the seasonal forecasts)

The northern hemisphere is still in an interesting situation and there is the second half of the winter to go.

[LetItSnow!]

A look at the model output & Gav on YouTube shows a very dry outlook ahead, especially for England & Wales. Sub 50mm Januaries in recent years include 1997 (16.5mm), 2000 (46.4mm), 2006 (31.9mm) and 2019 (47.1mm). With barely any measurable rainfall in the next week to ten days it looks like we could be heading for the driest January for either just 3 years or even 16 years. All down to how the final 10 days goes, and it is only the 10th. Completely the opposite to January 2021 which was extremely wet (146mm).

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

dear oh dear I just went on Weather Online and had a look at their seasonal forecast for February.

Milder February

Drier March

Issued: Sunday 9th January 2022 
Duty forecaster: Alexi Venerus 

 

*February* 
Ridge towards the south and Europe 
Trough in Iceland and parts of N Atlantic 
Windier and wetter further northwest 
Drier further south and east 
Milder generally overall. 

*March* 
Ridge perhaps more prominant across the country 
A drier outlook for March generally 
Perhaps milder too 
Though mist and fog could be common 

Alexi Venerus

 

If this has got any reliability in it then I am lost for words

goes with what a few of the seasonal models have predicted for this season. If this is how it will pan out then top marks.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

dear oh dear I just went on Weather Online and had a look at their seasonal forecast for February.

Milder February

Drier March

Issued: Sunday 9th January 2022 
Duty forecaster: Alexi Venerus 

 

*February* 
Ridge towards the south and Europe 
Trough in Iceland and parts of N Atlantic 
Windier and wetter further northwest 
Drier further south and east 
Milder generally overall. 

*March* 
Ridge perhaps more prominant across the country 
A drier outlook for March generally 
Perhaps milder too 
Though mist and fog could be common 

Alexi Venerus

 

If this has got any reliability in it then I am lost for words

goes with what a few of the seasonal models have predicted for this season. If this is how it will pan out then top marks.

 

 

If it’s worth any salt I’m also plumping for a dry (perhaps very mild) March. April I see as cold and wet at present.

[Dunstable Snow]

24 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

dear oh dear I just went on Weather Online and had a look at their seasonal forecast for February.

Milder February

Drier March

Issued: Sunday 9th January 2022 
Duty forecaster: Alexi Venerus 

 

*February* 
Ridge towards the south and Europe 
Trough in Iceland and parts of N Atlantic 
Windier and wetter further northwest 
Drier further south and east 
Milder generally overall. 

*March* 
Ridge perhaps more prominant across the country 
A drier outlook for March generally 
Perhaps milder too 
Though mist and fog could be common 

Alexi Venerus

 

If this has got any reliability in it then I am lost for words

goes with what a few of the seasonal models have predicted for this season. If this is how it will pan out then top marks.

 

 

Complete waste of time even reading these long range forecasts. How anybody can make a worthwhile prediction more than 7 days ahead for our little island god alone knows. 

[winterof79]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If it’s worth any salt I’m also plumping for a dry (perhaps very mild) March. April I see as cold and wet at present.

Any one could write that and its not model related.