Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[phil nw.]

Another walk today with frost lingering in the deep shade of the nearby hedgerows.

This blue sky weather with frosty nights is very much location based of course I realize.

I will take this over mild and damp any Winter if we can't get snow.

[Froze were the Days]

Nice sunny days for once makes you feel so much more alive than the usual drizzly dull nonsense we usually get! Sadly though we seem some way off receiving what us 'coldies' want, no surprise as the last January in my local that received anything notable in terms of the white stuff was way back in 2013...really poor but sign of the times.

[Downburst]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nice sunny days for once makes you feel so much more alive than the usual drizzly dull nonsense we usually get! Sadly though we seem some way off receiving what us 'coldies' want, no surprise as the last January in my local that received anything notable in terms of the white stuff was way back in 2013...really poor but sign of the times.

Do you see what you did there? My local is a well run place and we don't have any of the white stuff or people on the white stuff near the place, not in January or any other month of the year.

[Methuselah]

39 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

 

Well I used to think the same about Corbyn and his predictions, so  three years ago I decided to put my money where my mouth was, so to speak, and paid for his long range forecasts over a two year period, to see for myself just how accurate they were.  What I found was,  that although he wasn't 100 percent accurate, he was still far more accurate over that 2 year period than the met office or any of their models.

I have no idea how he does it or what his exact formula is but there is no denying in my honest opinion that his accuracy is uncanny but quite good overall.  Or at least it was during the two years that I experimented by paying for his forecasts.  I haven't since paid for one of his forecasts but I do occasionally look at the comments on their blog page on which there are some very interested theories and comments put forward by far more knowledgeable people than me.  Comments from Piers www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=846&c=5      

 Reading between the lines of one or two of their comments,  I get the impression that they are looking at some sort of change for the last 3rd of January onward.  It will be interesting to see just what does happen. If things do go against what all the models are currently saying , it will certainly pose a few interesting questions.

You might find this article interesting, Hull. Also try googling the Sunk Cost Fallacy?

Why Do We Favor Information That Confirms Our Existing Beliefs?

WWW.VERYWELLMIND.COM

---

Confirmation bias can prevent us from considering other information when making decisions since we tend to only see factors that support our beliefs.

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Whilst a good storm or two would be nice, I have been enjoying the weather conditions as of late - crisp, frosty and lovely blue skies. For once, the anticyclone is in our favour.

I am not really too bothered about it being a deep freeze kind of cold, I just want something akin to winter. Average winter temps (6 or so celsius) is still cold enough for hat and gloves. As long as it is in single figures then I am happy.  

Would still be nice to see a good snowfall along with a couple of storms before winter is out though.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yup we're eating away at winter now. Could easily be 1st of March and still nothing. I can see it happening.

With latest charts this could be our most frost free and snowless January ever  that I can recall 

[stainesbloke]

Enjoyed a beautiful sunny day here today, with maximum temperature of 7°C. Not a cloud all day, lovely 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But apart from a few daft predictions, which are wrong more often than they're right, no one has yet produced any evidence. Unless, of course, one finds Piers Corbyn's deluded nonsense compelling? On balance, I'll stick with the 

 

BFTP 

Edited January 14, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MP-R]

Three days of sunshine and frost, two of which featured some fog early on. If only this was the holding pattern every winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

With latest charts this could be our most frost free and snowless January ever  that I can recall 

Loads of frosts here.  Interesting this morning on my delivery round, Redhill 1c, Gatwick 1c, Horsham town cold at -3c and very frosty, village Handcross 3 miles east relatively mild at 3c and no frost, then I dropped down into Burgess Hill, some fog and really cold at -2.5c and frost galore….towns much colder than village….and it’s not altitude as Peas Pottage part of Crawley was really cold at -2c at 9am.  Very odd

 

BFTP

Edited January 14, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johncam]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Loads of frosts here

 

BFTP

Lucky you , that for me is the  perfect winter weather chilly night,  sunny days , have had 1 frost in January so far 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Lucky you , that for me is the  perfect winter weather chilly night,  sunny days , have had 1 frost in January so far 

 

 

Sorry John, elaborated a bit more…odd weather 

 

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

December PDO came in at -2.0, most negative since Dec 90.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, phil nw. said:

Another walk today with frost lingering in the deep shade of the nearby hedgerows.

This blue sky weather with frosty nights is very much location based of course I realize.

I will take this over mild and damp any Winter if we can't get snow.

I went for a brief walk at lunch and there was still frost in the shade and some ice on the lake in the park I walked around, it felt freezing but was actually 10C. 

[Downburst]

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

December PDO came in at -2.0, most negative since Dec 90.

Interesting, thanks for sharing. I’ve a very scant knowledge of this index and less still of it’s possible impacts to global patterns, but will grab some time to read some papers on it. Obviously what comes to mind is ENSO relationship, but perhaps that’s too simple as ever. 

[Penrith Snow]

You know that the UK is a depressing place to live when people are happy with a few air frosts in January.

Is this what we have become  

Andy

[Wold Topper]

3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

You know that the UK is a depressing place to live when people are happy with a few air frosts in January.

Is this what we have become  

Andy

Speak for yourself

[Don]

22 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

This happened to me in Dec 2010!! Went to Munich for snow. They had some but not much. 6 inches was due to fall the day we left and flew home. Got to the UK and it was snowing. The further down the M3 we went the deeper it got! Next morning - ruler out- measured 7 ruddy inches!!

Fancy booking a winter away during the December to remember!  At least you got back to enjoy the snow mind.  Was the snowfall you're talking about the 18th December or earlier in the month?

[Don]

44 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

You know that the UK is a depressing place to live when people are happy with a few air frosts in January.

Is this what we have become  

Andy

Could be worse IMO in that it could be flat and zonal with endless mild days and wind and rain!  Still, I agree that when you're a coldie and satisfied with air frosts in deep winter, it's not great!

Edited January 14, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Could be worse IMO in that it could be flat and zonal with endless mild days and wind and rain!  Still, I agree that when you're a coldie and satisfied with air frosts in deep winter, it's not great!

The current spell is very non-descript but with a nudge NW this would be an excellent cold frosty period, low single digit maxima and regular sub freezing nights.. alas weve been stuck in the 4-7 degree range throughout.. not cold but not mild just very forgettable. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 14/01/2022 at 20:57, Penrith Snow said:

You know that the UK is a depressing place to live when people are happy with a few air frosts in January.

Is this what we have become  

Andy

And the way that the newspapers overreact whenever we get a dusting of snow, as well as when the temperature goes over 25 Celsius in the middle of summer.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

And the way that the newspapers overreact whenever we get a dusting of snow, as well as when the temperature goes over 25 Celsius in the middle of summer.

Not sure they bother when the temperature goes over 25C in summer these days as 30C+ is becoming ever more common, especially in the south!

[Georgina]

5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yup we're eating away at winter now. Could easily be 1st of March and still nothing. I can see it happening.

There’s more chance of snow at Easter than Christmas still plenty of time

[Kasim Awan]

16 minutes ago, Georgina said:

There’s more chance of snow at Easter than Christmas still plenty of time

Yeah true but I personally prefer a harsh mid winter will always be 60% more severe for the same airmass, I'd take snow at easter tho as a last resort.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Don you should know better, without the chase for what them models that shows us 4 times a day...that is the interest on every run in Winter is happy times for us cold lovers that keep us alive....Whether it brings us a negative or a positive outlook.....that’s what this thread is all about...my glass is always full

Yes, we are always dragged back to the models, no matter what they are showing! 

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah true but I personally prefer a harsh mid winter will always be more severe, I'd take snow at easter tho as a last resort.

Happened in 1989 after an exceptionally mild winter and was most welcome!