Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Gowon]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Gfs op very much on the warm side of the ensembles throughout the run with the sinking of the high. Overall, no real support for the Atlantic to return in January... plenty of snow opportunities tho....if you live near Athens!

 

 

It's such a beautiful place in and around the Balkans and they seem to get good snowfalls when the high pressure is sat over us.

 

[Summer8906]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, this does potentially have shades of TWO's winter forecast for February.  Their seasonal forecast has been pretty good so far and will hopefully continue that way!

Sounds like an almost carbon copy of 1992 to me. Dry and average to slightly cold for the rest of Jan, somewhat milder - but not really mild - in Feb, mostly dry in the south but with a possibly wet 2nd week.

Is the outlook therefore as bad as all that? Granted little chance of snow, but there seems to be a signal for temps at or slightly below average in the south, which is an improvement on the typical normal winter.

I was going to moan about the change to dull southerlies today following a beautiful day yesterday btw (accompanied by a very rapid thaw of frost and ice), but thankfully it looks like that is temporary with a northerly being mentioned for Thursday which should clean out the air again.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, snowspotter said:

Just checked my weather station stats. Since the ridiculous warm start at end of December early January we have had a some cracking frosty starts and some cool day with sunshine after the December gloom. I am quite enjoying it to be honest

to put things into perspective here are the number of days I've recorded with minimums below 0c ( have missed out 2021 ,2016, 2021 as lost some data)

So far this month 11 days which compares really well already since 2010 with totals as follows :-

2010 -19

2011 - 7

2012 - 11

2013 - 15

2014 - 4

2015 - 11

2017 - 16

2018 - 2

2019 - 15

2020 - 4

I'm confident we might end up with a record beating 2010 so best January for frosts since at least 2010!!

You can tell quite easily which were the mild and stormy Januaries from that table. Surprised though that 2012 had more than 2011, and 2014 had as many as 4 air frosts. Here in southern Hampshire 2011 was definitely colder than 2012, though can't remember the frosts. Also I don't think 2014 had a single ground frost, never mind air frost, and perhaps only two vaguely cold nights, both around the third weekend. (As an aside, I did note 31 days out of 31 for rain that month, the only month with rain on every day that I can remember.. the first dry day of the year being February 16th!) By contrast, while Jan 2018 was mostly mild and wet, I do remember a short cold-ish spell in the 2nd week which must have given a couple of frosts - so surprised that 2018, rather than 2014, was your lowest for frosts.

It seems to show that even within southern England, some places are much more favoured than others for proper 'wintry' weather. I do also know that when I lived in NW Sussex as a child and teenager, frosts were much more common than in south Hampshire, which was partly explained by the 80s being much colder but also partly the location.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

18 hours ago, MP-R said:

Yeah.. and as such some very notable wet months too e.g. November 2009. 2012 taking first prize with exceptionally wet weather in June/July, September, and November/December!

And interesting re your last point, we had 141mm here in May 2008, versus on 43mm in that June. Lots of thundery activity and southerly tracking lows caused that, which then switched to a mostly benign westerly or northerly setup in June. 

May 2008 was rather wet in the south but it did have a long spell of warm, even hot, sunny weather starting around the May Day bank holiday weekend. Lows over France gradually advanced further north and the last week or so was pretty wet, but I think almost all the rain fell in that last week so it could be considered a 'good' month. Somewhat similar to May 1992 which followed a similar pattern, though the final wetter week in 1992 was sunnier and less wet than 2008.

There was a distinct N-S split as a consequence in late May 2008, I remember spending the late May holiday weekend in the Lake District and enjoying prolonged sunshine just as the breakdown to wet weather arrived in the south. I remember a stiff E breeze up there and a mass of high cloud to the south.

In a relatively poor summer, June 2008 was pretty good here, sunnier than average though not spectacularly hot. That said I do recall a short hot spell around the 2nd weekend. July was then rather changeable and (for the first 20 days) cool and August of course terrible for the first 20 days, though a warm if cloudy end.

18 hours ago, MP-R said:

April 2010 is often forgotten about, but I certainly remember it a largely sunny month, albeit mostly cool.

The month of the volcanic eruption of Ejyafjallajoekull (?) in Iceland, which downed aircraft for several weeks. People commented on the lack of contrails that month producing the deep blue skies, though I think as much a contributing factor to that was the persistent clean, low-humidity air. I think it was cool at night but rather warm (high teens) by day typically.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

And so winter slowly ebbs away my peeps!just got one of those reminders on my phone from 18th jan 2013!someone take me back to january 18th 2013!!!what a wonderful classic of a snowfall that was for parts of wales and the midlands!!ended up close to 20cms here!!!was meant to stall across the west mids but ended up much further north and east which made it all the more sweeter!!miss those times man!!!

Yep 18th to 26th January 2013 was the snowiest week I've ever seen. If we get to March 1st without an atleast 10cm fall here that would be a new lowest maximum snow accumulation during winter for this location. 2020 holds the current record with a 10cm fall on January 27th I believe.

[Kasim Awan]

15 hours ago, Mariescb said:

I must live in a parallel universe because so far this winter we've had snow falling and a good covering 3 times  plus several hard frosts, beautiful crisp winter sunshine and some chilly wrap up warm days. Nothing remotely extreme but that's a rarity in this country anyway.

Those events were poor. The event in November was historic though, 10ft drifts, 70mph blizzards etc.

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

It's such a beautiful place in and around the Balkans and they seem to get good snowfalls when the high pressure is sat over us.

 

Aren't they the lucky ones.... Models show high pressure continuing... Snores loudly 

[MP-R]

50 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

May 2008 was rather wet in the south but it did have a long spell of warm, even hot, sunny weather starting around the May Day bank holiday weekend. Lows over France gradually advanced further north and the last week or so was pretty wet, but I think almost all the rain fell in that last week so it could be considered a 'good' month. Somewhat similar to May 1992 which followed a similar pattern, though the final wetter week in 1992 was sunnier and less wet than 2008.

There was a distinct N-S split as a consequence in late May 2008, I remember spending the late May holiday weekend in the Lake District and enjoying prolonged sunshine just as the breakdown to wet weather arrived in the south. I remember a stiff E breeze up there and a mass of high cloud to the south.

In a relatively poor summer, June 2008 was pretty good here, sunnier than average though not spectacularly hot. That said I do recall a short hot spell around the 2nd weekend. July was then rather changeable and (for the first 20 days) cool and August of course terrible for the first 20 days, though a warm if cloudy end.

The month of the volcanic eruption of Ejyafjallajoekull (?) in Iceland, which downed aircraft for several weeks. People commented on the lack of contrails that month producing the deep blue skies, though I think as much a contributing factor to that was the persistent clean, low-humidity air. I think it was cool at night but rather warm (high teens) by day typically.

May 2008 has nothing on the likes of 1992 or 2018 in this neck of the woods. Other than the 06th-13th period, the rest of the month wasn’t great. A cyclonic start with not a lot of sunshine, a chilly northeasterly period following rain on the 15th/16th, then the thundery/wet period after the 21st.   Not forgetting of course the spectacular thunderstorms on the 09th. Sunshine was actually slightly below average here.

Needless to say, it was a vast improvement on the year before...

[johncam]

Up until now this has been the worst winter I can remember in my 63 years , nothing in charts to suggest it will get any better 

[Froze were the Days]

I have to say if cold and the chance of snow is your thing (as many on here) this is becoming incredibly tedious model watching...if anything GFS is now pushing away from amplification to something more Atlantic dominated towards FI and the ECM well...more of the same. Yawn!

[Nick L]

16 hours ago, markyo said:

This Winter is turning rapidly into a shocker, not even a hint of anything remotely cold.  Just hope and pray no Summer heatwaves to come, that would be misery on misery!

lol nothing remotely cold? what? I must be imagining having to scrape my car all week.

[Mariescb]

56 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Those events were poor. The event in November was historic though, 10ft drifts, 70mph blizzards etc.

It's all relative.  I was merely replying to the guy from Sheffield who posted that there had been zero cold in our region so far this winter and that simply hasn't been the case. Forget what might/could or has been in years gone by, this winter compared to many feels quite seasonal. There have been many winters round here where I've not even had to de-ice the car so from that point of view this winter is doing alright imo. Cheers

[johncam]

18 minutes ago, Nick L said:

lol nothing remotely cold? what? I must be imagining having to scrape my car all week.

If you look at the charts not everyone is under the slack high pressure and clear ,  we have had mostly a  sw wind and  cloudy and mild mate 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

May 2008 has nothing on the likes of 1992 or 2018 in this neck of the woods. Other than the 06th-13th period, the rest of the month wasn’t great. A cyclonic start with not a lot of sunshine, a chilly northeasterly period following rain on the 15th/16th, then the thundery/wet period after the 21st.   Not forgetting of course the spectacular thunderstorms on the 09th. Sunshine was actually slightly below average here.

Needless to say, it was a vast improvement on the year before...

Thinking about it, we did get the northeasterly for one day on Saturday 17th, and immediately before that, I think there was an attempted movement in of a thundery low from France around the 16th though it failed to produce any rain. But then, from Sunday 18th to Friday 23rd we got renewed sunshine if I remember right, Agree that 6th-13th was the hottest spell though. But ISTR the lows were located closest to the SW so quite likely the weather was worse the further SW you were. (I will admit I forgot about that NE-ly in my original post, but even still, the majority of the period from May 4th-23rd was good. I think it was the 24th the weather broke seriously, I have memories of heading north and escaping the advancing cloud...)

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Up until now this has been the worst winter I can remember in my 63 years , nothing in charts to suggest it will get any better 

19/20? I'd probably rate that one much worse for persistent mild, wet, dull gloom, and would class that one probably as the worst of my lifetime for weather. Depends what you're after but I can think of quite a few others that were milder and wetter. This is assuming of course that the models are correct and we don't revert to mild, dull and wet for the final 6 weeks of winter! (If we did then this winter would indeed be amongst the very worst...)

Edited January 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

If you look at the charts not everyone is under the slack high pressure and clear ,  we have had mostly a  sw wind and  cloudy and mild mate 

I seem to remember Jan 2017 being very similar, often frosty in the south but with persistent mild, dull SW-lies in the north, one of those rare months the S had more 'wintry' weather than the north. I think 2017 was a couple of degrees colder down here (perhaps 5-6c day max typical rather than around 8c) and didn't have the mild start of course.

Anyway, for today at least we're sharing the dull even here in the far south!

Edited January 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[johncam]

10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

19/20? I'd probably rate that one much worse for persistent mild, wet, dull gloom, and would class that one probably as the worst of my lifetime for weather. Depends what you're after but I can think of quite a few others that were milder and wetter. This is assuming of course that the models are correct and we don't revert to mild, dull and wet for the final 6 weeks of winter! (If we did then this winter would indeed be amongst the very worst...)

Not up here , 1 snow day , and 4 air frosts a lot worse than all winters till now 

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Not up here , 1 snow day , and 4 air frosts a lot worse than all winters till now 

Yeah, sorry partly my fault - I misread your location as 'Cambridge'!

Yes, I can imagine as I implied in my other post that it's pretty grim up in Scotland.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Well that’s the 4th fog warning we’ve had here in the last couple of weeks…..and the 4th time there’s been no fog

In fact the whole of east anglia was under the dense fog warning, and the whole region is crystal clear. Little bit of a bust again there.

I said before it's the new snow! lol

[cheeky_monkey]

had our 5th Ice storm of the season yesterday..never experienced any before this season..so to get 5 in 6 weeks is unheard of had a long spell of freezing rain. Roads and footpaths were covered in a thick layer of ice...this was then followed by a flash freeze warning (again never seen this before)..what followed was the temperature falling from +1c at 4pm to -18c by 5pm..accompanied by a fierce blizzard ..as you can imagine chaos on the roads ensued during both rush hours morning and evening.

Edited January 18, 2022 by cheeky_monkey

[Penrith Snow]

This winter seems to be giving us the worst of all worlds! No snow or proper cold just an annoying 'faux cold' that ensures our heating bills stay high despite the nearest snow being 1000 miles away.

At least under a mild South westerly I can save a few quid or travel to Spain for some winter sun, however, with the high in its current location Iberia has loads of surface cold as well with harsh frosts even near the coast.

Meanwhile the US as usual gets loads of winter fun and this week even the Greeks will join in.

It's all bloody pants.

Andy

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

19/20? I'd probably rate that one much worse for persistent mild, wet, dull gloom, and would class that one probably as the worst of my lifetime for weather. Depends what you're after but I can think of quite a few others that were milder and wetter. This is assuming of course that the models are correct and we don't revert to mild, dull and wet for the final 6 weeks of winter! (If we did then this winter would indeed be amongst the very worst...)

Despite limited snowfall so far and nothing especially cold.. taking out the New Year period which was silly mild.. overall I'd rank this winter so far on a higher level than 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19 and 19-20 for seasonality- all these winters were very mild and very wet first halves. 

[Chris K]

For all the time I have been a member here this has to be the most boring winter so far for me I'm going to get excited just to see a rain band again.

So much grey weather dominated December here, now it is alternating between nice clear days, foggy/frosty nights and dry, back to grey spells imbetween. The high is really struggling to move off anywhere and just meandering about...the lack of interest I have in the charts is notable this month

[markyo]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

lol nothing remotely cold? what? I must be imagining having to scrape my car all week.

Pure shorts and t shirt weather....and i'm not joking! Hardly had any heating on at all. May be a good thing to save up for running the aircon this summer though!

[Freeze]

Must be one of the frostiest January's so far here since 2010. Had a frost almost every morning, with lots of fog too. Chilly sunny days in single figures, lovely winter weather here. Wish it would continue until March then it can warm up.