Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Froze were the Days]

Last notable snowfall in my neck of the woods (and that wasn't that much) in a January was back in 2013 nearly a decade a go!!...and that coincided with a SSW - says it all about Winters, use to be the Lion and now has turned into a tabby.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[jmp223420]

This winter, and what looks like coming is pure, unadulterated mince for coldies.

[Summer8906]

10 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

January is turning out to be a rather dry month. I do fear that we will be paying for it during the spring. 

As much as I am enjoying these current weather conditions, it does seem fairly common nowadays to have several weeks of wet or dry weather as opposed to it being more balanced. Particularly over the last couple of years.

I'd be more expecting wet weather in the summer (not all summer, but part of it): based on recent patterns and historical analogues I am expecting much of spring to be warm and sunny, perhaps May less so, and (as I said above) one of Feb or March on the wet side.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

34 minutes ago, johncam said:

For us has had the same effect to be honest 

Indeed, remembering that the distance from say Kent to the western Alps is similar to the distance from Kent to the more northern and western parts of of Scotland, so a 'Kent high' would have similar effect on much of Scotland as a 'Bartlett high' to SE England...

(A curious fact is that Dover is about 25 miles closer to Mont Blanc than it is to Ben Nevis).

Edited January 19, 2022 by Summer8906

[Mariescb]

Baffling to me the amount of people calling this persistent high pressure boring and some even going as far as wishing for a raging Atlantic instead. Guess I'm just a weirdo for liking frosty mornings, beautiful blue skies and crisp winter sunshine. Oh well I'm sure the UK will be back to it's default zonal setting before long and you can raise a toast to those dartboard lows lol.

[reef]

It hasn't really been a frosty month here so far, only three days have gone below freezing. It has been dry and sunny though. We've had just 14.0mm of rain and 66 hours of sunshine so far. The 1991-2020 average for sunshine in January here is 61 hours so we're already at 108% of the expected monthly total with 12 days to go. 

Today and tomorrow will add to that total, but whether the record of 91 hours goes depends on how cloudy it is from Friday onwards. It looks like it will be a dirty high the further north you are at the moment but we're sheltered here in the east so its hard to say.

It has been a dire winter for snow though, just a brief sugar coating on 2nd December and a couple of days with sleetiness on 6th December and 6th January.

The current winter index to 18th January is just 12.8. Thats the 4th lowest in 35 winters. The bottom 6 are as follows:

2006/07: 19.7
2019/20: 18.0
2021/22: 12.8 (to 18th Jan)
2013/14: 8.0
1989/90: 8.0
1988/89: 7.8

[RabbitEars]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Yes the rainfall stats are quite interesting

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

No rainfall totals on that spreadsheet for Ronaldsway... very disappointing!

Although does show that most point are drier than average ... if you look at the percentage rainfall (against the climatology). Yes there's the rest of the month to go but with a high pressure in charge that's not going to increase the rainfall. Drought by the summer? 

Edited January 19, 2022 by RabbitEars

[The4Seasons]

44 minutes ago, Mariescb said:

Baffling to me the amount of people calling this persistent high pressure boring and some even going as far as wishing for a raging Atlantic instead. Guess I'm just a weirdo for liking frosty mornings, beautiful blue skies and crisp winter sunshine. Oh well I'm sure the UK will be back to it's default zonal setting before long and you can raise a toast to those dartboard lows lol.

I love it to be honest. Those sparkling frosty sunny mornings with even abit of fog beats endless windy, mild, grey, misty cloud and rain anyday. People need to be careful for what they wish for otherwise we might just end up with a bartlett high and dull mild grey fest then to be followed by a poor rainy cool summer. We all know the uk is not a snowy place. We live by one of the largest oceans and unfortunately that will always make it difficult to keep any cold or heat sustainable here for any lengthy period of time unless we get very lucky with all the perfect weather patterns in place. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by The4Seasons

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

It's actually a valid point regarding Exeter factoring in GW into their LRF's..perhaps when telecommunications like qbo /enso are analysed  it needs to be considered GW can over ride any cold signal.

How are we going to get colder winters moving forward then?  With great difficulty!

[frosty ground]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's actually a valid point regarding Exeter factoring in GW into their LRF's..perhaps when telecommunications like qbo /enso are analysed  it needs to be considered GW can over ride any cold signal.

Equally the data set used to compare such events is small on the grand scheme of things

[NewEra21]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

How are we going to get colder winters moving forward then?  With great difficulty!

SSW's, but even then everything has to fall favourably for us.

I can't remember the last time I saw a proper cold/snowy spell here without one.

Down south it seems without a SSW it's almost impossible to get snow nowadays, especially settling snow.

Up north will always get a few snowfalls, due to favourable height etc. But cold spells without a SSW nowadays are becoming more and more rare. Especially for us on our tiny island anyway.

Edited January 19, 2022 by NewEra21

[Don]

7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1981/82 ended on a mild note. Wasn’t February 1982 quite mild, after the cold January?

Yes, I think February 1982 was generally on the mild side throughout.

[damianslaw]

Those saying no chance of cold and snow.. I reference Feb 05.. end of month brought sustained cold and easterlies and not caused by SSW I think... coming on the back of endless mild Atlantic driven weather. Shows how things can change. Early March 95 another good example long blast of polar north westerlies after a winter dominated by mild wind and rain.. many many examples of late season cold snowy spells on the back of virtually nothing and not SSW influenced..  

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, RabbitEars said:

No rainfall totals on that spreadsheet for Ronaldsway... very disappointing!

Although does show that most point are drier than average ... if you look at the percentage rainfall (against the climatology). Yes there's the rest of the month to go but with a high pressure in charge that's not going to increase the rainfall. Drought by the summer? 

I remember someone calling a summer drought in March 2012 on another forum, and even a serious suggestion of 40C if the synoptics were right due to the dry ground. Then look what happened immediately after....

[Lampostwatcher]

46 days left takes us to march 8th

January looks like a write off 

I will take 2 inches of lying snow this year just for a day 

[Sunny76]

10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I remember someone calling a summer drought in March 2012 on another forum, and even a serious suggestion of 40C if the synoptics were right due to the dry ground. Then look what happened immediately after....

While I don't see a 2012 happening this year, a 2018 is probably less likely as well.

All we need is a long sunny period with low humidity and daytime maxes between 23-27c between late May and Late August, with a few days here and there of rainfall.

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, The4Seasons said:

I love it to be honest. Those sparkling frosty sunny mornings with even abit of fog beats endless windy, mild, grey, misty cloud and rain anyday. People need to be careful for what they wish for otherwise we might just end up with a bartlett high and dull mild grey fest then to be followed by a poor rainy cool summer. We all know the uk is not a snowy place. We live by one of the largest oceans and unfortunately that will always make it difficult to keep any cold or heat sustainable here for any lengthy period of time unless we get very lucky with all the perfect weather patterns in place. 

What are you talking about, have you not read that QBO and MJO and Sunspots (aka "energy") along with the moon guarantee us in the freezer every winter. I have proof from reading the Mod thread. The experts know more as they have access to the bin, whatever that is, and to more models than the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts. 

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1981/82 ended on a mild note. Wasn’t February 1982 quite mild, after the cold January?

That winter actually effectively ended mid January. The second half of 1981-82 for the CET was actually milder than the second half of 1974-75

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That winter actually effectively ended mid January. The second half of 1981-82 for the CET was actually milder than the second half of 1974-75

96-97 and 10-11 did the same.

[jules216]

I wont complain how this January is going,despite lack of Snow it has been sunny and frosty that average (-1,9°C) is discretely going slowly below 1991-2020 despite seasonal models going mild, it must be a local anomaly only,but I will take it after 15cm on 25.12 to have dry cold January.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is currently 18

It was only 1 at the end of January 1989 and 7 for the whole of 2013-14. 

[mb018538]

3 hours ago, RabbitEars said:

With all this high pressure and lack of precipitation (snow or otherwise) one would hope that the water utilities companies are keeping a good eye on reservoir levels. January is traditionally quite a wet month... we haven't really seen this. In fact it looks like on average November and December 2021 were drier too.... where's our rainy days gone? 

We are fine for rain. It hosed it down in October, and December was around average. November quite dry, January exceptionally so....but nothing to cause any panic yet. The very wet October and almost average December means no real issues.

We just seem to get one or the other in modern times. It's either soaking wet or bone dry. What we'd expect in a more extreme and warming climate that we are seeing in the last 20-30 years,

 

[mountain shadow]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Those saying no chance of cold and snow.. 

There is always the chance of proper cold and snow period, but there is nothing, absolutely nothing, trop or strat wise pointing to such a scenario. 

Personally I think very late February into March might produce the goods.

[summer blizzard]

Regarding people being despondent because the signs looked good for the winter it's firstly worth reminding people that we are all of 19 days into Q1 and secondly worth saying that we have a UK high, plenty of sun, plenty of frost and a month that will be near/cooler than average. It's hardly Dec 15.

It is of course worth saying that signals have only ever been 6/7 out of 10. The MEI has been suggesting that the Nina is very well coupled.

[johncam]

53 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Regarding people being despondent because the signs looked good for the winter it's firstly worth reminding people that we are all of 19 days into Q1 and secondly worth saying that we have a UK high, plenty of sun, plenty of frost and a month that will be near/cooler than average. It's hardly Dec 15.

It is of course worth saying that signals have only ever been 6/7 out of 10. The MEI has been suggesting that the Nina is very well coupled.

Sorry we all haven't had plenty of sun and frosts so that is misleading, we have had 2 days of sun and one frost since 26th December,  posters need to be specific that they are talking about thier own area