Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This happened in 1997 if I do recall, a late collapse of the vortex and we saw the dramatic shift in the weather around May Day bank holiday that year. We went on to have a cool and wet May and June that year.

Although August 1997 was the second warmest on record after 1995 two years earlier and not sure July 1997 was too bad either?  However, I know you're referring more to the first half of summer, but goes to show it might not be too bad overall with a late collapse of the vortex.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Don

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Without doubt!  I know the warm September theory vs mild winter is controversial, but it's a big red flag for winter as far as I'm concerned!

 

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe time for us to start praying that September 2022 isn't a mild one if we want to salvage any chance of a decent winter 2022/2023

The warm September theory being controversial, well I will say that although it is clear that previous records suggest, in recent times at least, that there is a link that a warm September certainly does not bode well from a perspective of colder winter weather in the following winter, and a warm September is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter, but on the other hand, it is not clear that a cool September or even a close to average one has any bearing on the sort of winter that follows.  I can only see evidence that the September link works one way with the warm September ruining the chance of cold weather in the following winter, but the other way round nothing is clear.   

In reality a cool or average September is only a weak factor in favour of a cold winter to follow, but the other way, a warm September is a strong factor of a winter killer for cold weather in the following winter.

Certainly if you want a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks in the following winter you do not want to see anomalous warmth during September, and I would say that you can almost write the following winter off from being decent in September if it is very warm in that month.

[Empire Of Snow]

26 minutes ago, mathematician said:

I don't understand why you're constantly rubbing salt in the wound.

Fine , you live in a part of the world where it's easy to see snow, we get it. Good for you, but don't constantly brag about it!

 

It's like showing a picture of a banquet to someone that you know hasn't eaten in days. Why would you do that? I'm sure there's an Austrian weather forum somewhere,!

This is a bit harsh. He's not bragging. He's just given a weather update from the place he lives. I get it we're all frustrated with the current weather model output but there's no reason to be rude to others. 

[PiscesStar]

THIS WINTER IS AN ABSOLUTE SNOREFEST THAT BLOODY HIGH PRESSURE AND THE GREEDY AMERICANS GGGRRRRR

[carinthian]

7 hours ago, mathematician said:

I don't understand why you're constantly rubbing salt in the wound.

Fine , you live in a part of the world where it's easy to see snow, we get it. Good for you, but don't constantly brag about it!

 

It's like showing a picture of a banquet to someone that you know hasn't eaten in days. Why would you do that? I'm sure there's an Austrian weather forum somewhere,!

Its just a ramp. Folk like to see snow pictures. This is also a forum that has many international members and also viewed from abroad, I have been posting on here since 2005. I will not get lost !

C

[saintkip]

Keep the snowy picks coming, I like to pretend they’re mine. Minus 3 in Basingstoke this morning so another frost, 4th this week. Exciting 

[Guest]

-6C this morning, hard to see it getting any colder than this for the rest of the winter down here without a much colder airmass. Still this is a great spell of weather even for someone like me that dislikes the cold. I can handle a few frosty mornings if we are compensated with sunny day. Little change for the rest of the month looking at the models. Could be the most unremarkable January on record. 

[stainesbloke]

Very chilly night again across much of England by the looks of it, not sure why there’s so much whining, if it’s cold people like?
More laying snow here, currently -4°C with a nasty windchill. Crazy to think that I’ve seen more snow falling here in 3 winters than 45 winters in the UK. Czech people still seem to love the stuff and winter sports are very popular. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by stainesbloke

[saintkip]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

-6C this morning, hard to see it getting any colder than this for the rest of the winter down here without a much colder airmass. Still this is a great spell of weather even for someone like me that dislikes the cold. I can handle a few frosty mornings if we are compensated with sunny day. Little change for the rest of the month looking at the models. Could be the most unremarkable January on record. 

-6 in Bournemouth? That’s exceptional 

[stainesbloke]

8 hours ago, mathematician said:

I don't understand why you're constantly rubbing salt in the wound.

Fine , you live in a part of the world where it's easy to see snow, we get it. Good for you, but don't constantly brag about it!

 

It's like showing a picture of a banquet to someone that you know hasn't eaten in days. Why would you do that? I'm sure there's an Austrian weather forum somewhere,!

It’s not bragging or trying to wind anyone up. It’s just a Brit posting on a UK weather forum, living somewhere that actually gets exciting weather, which the UK rarely does, unfortunately. You can forgive the excitement of actually experiencing seasonal weather, can’t you?

[mathematician]

43 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

It’s just a Brit posting on a UK weather forum

... about something unrelated to the UK and that we haven't experienced this year.

If one day i move to Lapland shall I start posting here daily pictures of my winter wonderland? What for? What's the point?

[marksp]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Its just a ramp. Folk like to see snow pictures. This is also a forum that has many international members and also viewed from abroad, I have been posting on here since 2005. I will not get lost !

C

Keep them pics rolling, I love em. We have had a reasonable winter in North Derbys, 6 falls of heavy snow, numerous roads blocked, hundreds of abandoned cars, 6 to 10 feet drifts on the hills, I suspose because I have posted lots of pics, and vids in the Midlands thread does that mean Iv have to get lost as well  hahaha.

if I cannot get lots of snow here then the next best thing is looking at pics of it elsewhere, even USA if I'm desperate

[Azazel]

We all know winter will arrive in March-May.

I don't think I could hack another spring like last year. Awful.

[RJBingham]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Its just a ramp. Folk like to see snow pictures. This is also a forum that has many international members and also viewed from abroad, I have been posting on here since 2005. I will not get lost !

C

Love the snow pics, that one looked like a Christmas card, looking forward to seeing many more. 

[Empire Of Snow]

1 hour ago, mathematician said:

... about something unrelated to the UK and that we haven't experienced this year.

If one day i move to Lapland shall I start posting here daily pictures of my winter wonderland? What for? What's the point?

I get what you're saying but Carinthian has been here for ages providing also valuable analysis in the mod thread. 

You'd better stay away from any world news also the next few days. You wouldn't want to see videos and pics of greek islands you've probably visited in the summer being buried under 1m of snow with severe snowstorms.

[mb018538]

Oh well. Only 5 more weeks of this 'winter' to go!

[Guest]

2 hours ago, saintkip said:

-6 in Bournemouth? That’s exceptional 

It Actually got to minus 6.9C the airport about is a mile or so inland and is a well know frost hollow on sandy soil. Usual annual low is -8 or -9C even without any really cold airmasses. 

[Chris Smith]

Long time since I've seen so much sunny weather in January. Goes some way to make up for all those interminable days of North Sea haar you get round here in May, when the rest of the  country is basking in a heat wave.

January sun does nothing for one's Vitamin D, but it helps with the old SAD demons.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Chris Smith
removing teh swears

[MP-R]

Coldest night of the winter here last night. Down to -04.5C. Beautiful frosty start.

May not be exciting weather but it sure is beautiful and much better than the raging southwesterlies we get in November and December!

[Summer8906]

On 19/01/2022 at 21:30, SqueakheartLW said:

Wonder if September's show the base state of the atmosphere at that given point which could explain a lot of things.

A warm September is most likely to occur when we have both a +NAO and +AO. Most likely to produce a dry September with warm continental or sub tropical influences, a bit like last September really as well as the warmest one on the record, 2006.

A cool September isn't necessarily caused by a -NAO and -AO but could be wet, zonal and cool or Blocked around Greenland with Azores low.

I tend to find that warm and dry Septembers are the biggest alarm bell for cold prospects the following winter and are a good sign you can write the winter off for anything special cold wise.

Why there wouldn't be a link the other way around is puzzling.

2009 is the really big exception though. Not sure if it was warm and dry further north, but here it definitely was.

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, Don said:

Although August 1997 was the second warmest on record after 1995 two years earlier and not sure July 1997 was too bad either?  However, I know you're referring more to the first half of summer, but goes to show it might not be too bad overall with a late collapse of the vortex.

July 1997 was reasonably good, somewhat changeable but with an emphasis on warm and bright. Similar to July 1991 in that respect.

May 1997 also wasn't a terrible month. It was very mixed, and warm for the first 2 days but also there was a warm, thundery spell mid month and a long spell of 9 days warm/sunny weather at the end. I seem to remember in the south it was actually warmer, sunnier and drier than normal; the 'good' weather cancelling out the 'bad'. The really bad weather in 1997 was restricted to June, from about the 7th to the end of the month, though one week (June 23-29) was absolutely atrocious it has to be said.

[SqueakheartLW]

7 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

2009 is the really big exception though. Not sure if it was warm and dry further north, but here it definitely was.

I think it's Septembers with CET's of around 15C or more that are bad news for the following winter. 2009 was only CET 14.2C which is very much close to average.

The 1991-2020 September average CET is 14.17C

Edited January 21, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

We all know winter will arrive in March-May.

I don't think I could hack another spring like last year. Awful.

I'd say unlikely. Based on the pattern so far, historical analogues and the recent tendency for seasons I think spring will be relatively early (start of March) and will contain a lot of warm, fine weather. If the weather breaks, it'll probably be in late spring (May) or early summer (June) though based on historical analogues one of Feb or March could be wet, if relatively mild. Generally cool/cold springs seem to follow cool/cold Februaries, so I do suspect that if Feb is average or mild, spring will be average or warm also. It's rare for an average or mild winter to flip to cold in the spring without there being any signs of it in February.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

-6C this morning, hard to see it getting any colder than this for the rest of the winter down here without a much colder airmass. Still this is a great spell of weather even for someone like me that dislikes the cold. I can handle a few frosty mornings if we are compensated with sunny day. Little change for the rest of the month looking at the models. Could be the most unremarkable January on record. 

 

The persistency of the anticyclone makes it more remarkable than some though. A 'bland' January IMO would be one which is zonal, mild, dull and somewhat wet without having record-breaking rain or notable storms (so not 2014). Something like January 2020,  January 1999, or the second half of January 1995, for instance.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

23 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I was actually going to add that to my post...my bets are on a wet February and March.

One of the two, perhaps, but probably not both. Recent examples of anticyclonic Januaries have produced fine, settled weather in one of February or March.

My bets are that either: the anticyclone will hang around through Feb but it will become warmer and spring-like, followed by a more changeable March, or - the jet stream will drop (see 1997, 2000) in Feb, we'll have a rather mild and wet Feb (but not quite to the extent of something like 2020, thinking more 1997 or 2000 again) followed by a warm and sunny March (again, see 1997 or 2000).

There seems to be some indication of it turning changeable once we reach February (on the model chat and also on the Met Office long range) so if I had to choose: somewhat changeable, wetter than average February followed by warm, sunny March.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906