Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[JoeShmoe]

Really starting to look forward to spring now with longer days, warmer sun and writing this non descript winter off ! At least here we saw some snow back in November 

[Froze were the Days]

and the +NAO keeps going and going! relentless.

[Staffmoorlands]

55 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS struggling to get any of the Pm cold incursions (sub -5C T850) further south than northern England. Keeps wanting to build in high pressure across the south. So promise for northern areas for some brief windows for snow in the Pm incursions, particularly hills, cold rain for the south. Remains to be seen though how far south the cold air can get as we finish the month on a more mobile and unsettled theme in westerly or northwesterly flow. May have to wait until early Feb in the south for cold enough air to dig south for wintriness from the NW or N, but out of range of the reliable for now.

Getting cold weather further south than the midlands from a northerly source has been an increasing frustration of winters in the last 20 years. Definitely a sign of climate change imo

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Getting cold weather further south than the midlands from a northerly source has been an increasing frustration of winters in the last 20 years. Definitely a sign of climate change imo

its strange when you mention a thing like that in such a small country as the UK..it really illustrates how frustrating our climate is in the UK

[Staffmoorlands]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its strange when you mention a thing like that in such a small country as the UK..it really illustrates how frustrating our climate is in the UK

Hadley Cell has moved slightly northwards in the last 30 years + 1c increase in sea temps in the last 100yrs has an impact on NW Europe

[Don]

4 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Really starting to look forward to spring now with longer days, warmer sun and writing this non descript winter off ! At least here we saw some snow back in November 

No, I've had enough of this anomalous warmth and would take any cool/cold season now, albeit I would rather it was winter!  I know this January has not been overly mild overall, but many months since May last year have been warm!

Edited January 22, 2022 by Don

[Hull 1963]

49 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Hadley Cell has moved slightly northwards in the last 30 years + 1c increase in sea temps in the last 100yrs has an impact on NW Europe

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

[Biggin]

49 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

And the magnetic pole shift to add   

 

[Elfyn Jones]

55 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

If it was this article on the Beaufort Gyre you refer to you are quite right; it's fascinating. It could well be that 'The Hunt For Cold' is more meaningfully focused on the reversal event herelded here. I feel our experience of warming winters over the last 20 years or so points to a big change such as this as a prerequisite before we can have reliable snow events in these Islands again.

How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe

E360.YALE.EDU

---

The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold...

 

[Roger J Smith]

Perhaps what is needed is a hunt for mold in cid-January. 

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, Elfyn Jones said:

If it was this article on the Beaufort Gyre you refer to you are quite right; it's fascinating. It could well be that 'The Hunt For Cold' is more meaningfully focused on the reversal event herelded here. I feel our experience of warming winters over the last 20 years or so points to a big change such as this as a prerequisite before we can have reliable snow events in these Islands again.

How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe

E360.YALE.EDU

---

The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold...

 

Another article on how GW will cool Europe, well guys the trend is going the wrong way and after 30 years I am still waiting!

Andy

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Don said:

No, I've had enough of this anomalous warmth and would take any cool/cold season now, albeit I would rather it was winter!  I know this January has not been overly mild overall, but many months since May last year have been warm!

That is what I thought.  In fact the whole winter so far (apart from the exceptional mild spell at the end of December / start of January) has not felt all that mild; it has just been so disappointing that the pattern has simply never come together from a significant cold spell perspective, and even this HP spell has never lived up to potential in years gone by in bringing widespread fog and proper cold days, and neither did the HP spell in the week or so before Christmas, and the northerly early this month turned out to only be a toppler, and the patterns have at times become "half way" to delivering a proper cold spell for the UK but just not come together to get the UK properly cold.

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Another article on how GW will cool Europe, well guys the trend is going the wrong way and after 30 years I am still waiting!

Andy

Yes, the wait goes on.....

[Snowjokes92]

3 hours ago, Hull 1963 said:

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

Do you have a link to this? Presuming this is suggestion is to happen in are lifetimes with current solar minimum? Do they expect this run of more milder winters to descend more into colder winters again. That would certainly be interesting to me in climate change era. Ive always thought with a warming planet, there would be at least rare occasions for serious cold to get to this part of world, especially with the ever more unbalanced, unstable climate and the warmth getting into higher latitudes.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Snowjokes92

[ANYWEATHER]

As I've said before, the UK covers only 0.01% of the Earth's surface which is practically nothing. To get cold and deep cold to our shores is a lottery. The weather and climate don't make or set agendas . While we are relatively mild and quiet this winter so far other places have had dramatic snow and cold. 1963 was an epic winter for the uk, but Greenland had one of its most mildest winters....

[jules216]

Popping here as this is somehow related to winter banter - Dave Ryding just won today mens Slalom in Kitzbuhel, a dry slope background, amazing congrats. Although its hard to watch those Alpine blizzards in winter when you have not seen a flake, at least this warm your heart. Not múch snow here but gosh its freezing. Six nights since 07.01 below -10°C and if you have less snow second best thing to do is Hockey and skating. I enjoy IT even more then too much snow when kids just get wet

 

[SqueakheartLW]

For those of us who wrote the winter off due to the warm September last year will be able to see the confirmation or not of a link between warmer than average Septembers and milder than average winters that follow.

I have been crunching all the numbers and have come up with the following result.

 

The Septembers have been arranged based on that year's September's CET anomaly vs the 30 year mean for that particular year so 1600's Septembers are measured against 1600's 30 year means and so on and not all against 1991-2020. This is done to ensure any warming or cooling trends between decades and centuries are eliminated from biasing the final result. The winters are also measured against their respective 30 year means too.

Warmest Septembers by anomalies are at the top and coolest at the bottom. The winters themselves are colour coded with their respective anomaly based on the key at the top unlike the Septembers which use the anomaly range just to the right of the September years and the colours for them are to just help highlight the warmest through to the coolest ones.

Well the final result does show a bit of a link between the warmest Septembers by their CET anomalies and mild winters with a +0.39C signal in the direction of milder with a general less mild influence early in the winter which grows as we head through winter. As September 2021 also came in this top category this doesn't bode well for February if this signal plays out with the +0.59C milder signal for Februaries after the mildest of Septembers.

Another thing I noticed was if the Septembers were at the mildest end or near the coldest end the winter signal in general came out milder than average whilst nearer average Septembers were more likely to produce average or colder than average winters after them.

The most likely Septembers that were followed by colder signals were those from around average up to +0.5C above average as well as another group between -0.5C and -1.0C below average too whilst just below average Septembers were a mild signal. Rather strangely if you got a mild September but not too mild at or around +1.25C above average this gave a colder signal too.

So there we have it. There is a confirmed link between very mild Septembers and milder winters but some of the other links came as a surprise to me.

Edited January 22, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Don said:

No, I've had enough of this anomalous warmth and would take any cool/cold season now, albeit I would rather it was winter!  I know this January has not been overly mild overall, but many months since May last year have been warm!

Yes until April I'm not looking for warmth at all. Once clocks go forward I begin to do so. Right now we are in the depths of winter and hitting the coldest part of the year on average, late Jan to mid Feb..

[Evening thunder]

Well, that would blow the cobwebs away...

Probably quite literally after recent conditions.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Evening thunder

[johncam]

I think now we can right off any prolonged cold spell in the near future more mild than cold on the models 

[January Snowstorm]

Must surely be heading for one of the most benign Winters on record!

Nothing going on for weeks on end, even fog hasn't been a factor! 

One named storm in 3 months!

For weather enthusiasts it's been very hard going and in my nearly 50 years of weather watching don't recall one so lacklustre!

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, johncam said:

I think now we can right off any prolonged cold spell in the near future more mild than cold on the models 

I wrote off January on the 1st of January and I am now happy to write off February too. This does not discount the odd toppler.

No Northerly blocking for the remaining Winter is odds on.

Just hoping for a few storms now and the odd flake from a toppler.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

topplers useless mostly here, only really deliver for high ground in the north, only snow I have had 27th-28th Nov, decent amount but not really a toppler

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

topplers useless mostly here, only really deliver for high ground in the north, only snow I have had 27th-28th Nov, decent amount but not really a toppler

Yes. I would say for Central, Southern  South Western and South East England, Winter is over.

March or April may deliver if there is a SSW.

[mpkio2]

The irony is is that last year the NAO had months of negativity during the later summer and autumn months and then flipped positive as we hit Winter. I thought "Well, nature will have to balance that out...." and believed the NAO would stay positive. Low and behold, my guess/theory was correct.

I believe we won't get a cold spell (Pro-longed cold spell with snow and ice) until late February/March at the earliest. 

Don't mean to be pessimistic, but that's just where my thinking is. Kudos to those who are always observing and putting their necks out on predictions!