Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[bobbydog]

19 minutes ago, weathercold said:

You simply cannot dress these charts up, absolutely awful for cold and snow.

Well, not for cold. It will be cold.

Snow however... 

[SqueakheartLW]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Interesting.  However, as for this winter, it's getting to the stage when I'm no longer bothered.  I've pretty much written it off!

This year reminds me somewhat of the 2004/2005 winter but a drier version of it. That winter was generally milder than average up to this point. I'd pretty much written that one off by mid January as I'd not seen a single flake of snow and the odd colder snaps we did get I missed out completely.

Saw nothing at Christmas 2004 as I was on the wrong side of the country for that one and got some very watered down cold snaps later in January that produced sleet at best.

Then when we finally did hit the jackpot from around Feb 18th onwards it turned out to be a rather tame easterly to be fair.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that it should by now be known that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a really warm September, and I think that last year's warm September nailed the coffin from this winter being anything special.  If I was a betting man I would say that the UK will never again see a cold winter after a notably warm September.  Although I cannot see that there appears to be a pattern link the other way round, after a cool September, or even a near average one, as to the type of winter that follows, a warm September appears to not be what you want to see if you want a cold winter to follow.  I think that it is well clear that a warm September does not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, and will always reduce the chances of cold weather in the winter to follow, even when other background signals like position of the solar cycle and ENSO and QBO state are good, like this year.  I think whenever you get anomalous warmth during September, you can write the following winter off in September for being up to much from a cold perspective.

Edited January 19, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that it should by now be known that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a really warm September, and I think that last year's warm September nailed the coffin from this winter being anything special.  If I was a betting man I would say that the UK will never again see a cold winter after a notably warm September.  Although I cannot see that there appears to be a pattern link the other way round, after a cool September, or even a near average one, as to the type of winter that follows, a warm September appears to not be what you want to see if you want a cold winter to follow.  I think that it is well clear that a warm September does not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, and will always reduce the chances of cold weather in the winter to follow, even when other background signals like position of the solar cycle and ENSO and QBO state are good, like this year.  I think whenever you get anomalous warmth during September, you can write the following winter off in September for being up to much from a cold perspective.

Wonder if September's show the base state of the atmosphere at that given point which could explain a lot of things.

A warm September is most likely to occur when we have both a +NAO and +AO. Most likely to produce a dry September with warm continental or sub tropical influences, a bit like last September really as well as the warmest one on the record, 2006.

A cool September isn't necessarily caused by a -NAO and -AO but could be wet, zonal and cool or Blocked around Greenland with Azores low.

I tend to find that warm and dry Septembers are the biggest alarm bell for cold prospects the following winter and are a good sign you can write the winter off for anything special cold wise.

Why there wouldn't be a link the other way around is puzzling.

[weathercold]

23 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Well, not for cold. It will be cold.

Snow however... 

I guess if we compare temps with average for Jan we are close to average UK wide.

Almost end of Jan and not seen a day temp below 4/5 degrees. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

21 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wonder if September's show the base state of the atmosphere at that given point which could explain a lot of things.

A warm September is most likely to occur when we have both a +NAO and +AO. Most likely to produce a dry September with warm continental or sub tropical influences, a bit like last September really as well as the warmest one on the record, 2006.

A cool September isn't necessarily caused by a -NAO and -AO but could be wet, zonal and cool or Blocked around Greenland with Azores low.

I tend to find that warm and dry Septembers are the biggest alarm bell for cold prospects the following winter and are a good sign you can write the winter off for anything special cold wise.

Why there wouldn't be a link the other way around is puzzling.

Rainfall in warm Septembers - Sep 1999 was very warm (15.6 CET) yet was also wet overall, and the warm September = mild winter theory worked pretty well that year.  Sep 2006 (the all time record holder) I believe had near average rainfall, and the very warm September 2021 was not far off average rainfall, as was the similarly warm September in 2016.  I certainly will always say that I believe that there will never be a cold winter, or at least not one that is anything special cold wise after a September CET that is significantly above average, and this winter yet again puts that theory to the test, along with decent background signals in the QBO, solar cycle etc.  A really warm September appears to be as equally poor background signal for cold winter weather in the UK as strong ENSO anomalies either way or as with 2019-20 any strong IOD anomaly, or high solar activity, westerly QBO etc.  Personally whenever September is anomalously warm I would during September, write the following winter off from being anything special.  

[North-Easterly Blast]

36 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I guess if we compare temps with average for Jan we are close to average UK wide.

Almost end of Jan and not seen a day temp below 4/5 degrees. 

That is just what I have thought.  This winter so far, apart from the five day extremely mild spell over the New Year period, has not been all that mild the rest of the time.  The main thing about this winter so far is that there has not been any proper cold - I mean day maxes below 5*C over large parts of the country - it has just been stuck at about average all the time apart from five days of insane warmth over New Year.  This HP spell is just completely failing from living up to the potential of such a spell years ago - widespread fog, or inversion cold under not cold upper air temps, and frost persisting through the days, which is just absolutely rotten when a particular pattern does not deliver the weather in the UK up to its potential.

 

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

Much above 25c and i try not to go out, yes shopping etc but not enjoyment, 30c plus i never go out!.....at all!

How many days per year does Sheffield get above 25°C? I’d have thought worrying about possible heatwaves a bit strange in mid January

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, weathercold said:

You simply cannot dress these charts up, absolutely awful for cold and snow.

The writing has been on the wall for some weeks now. The latest models only reaffirm initial thoughts.

Jan has been a write off for some time, Feb looks equally bleak to me. I don’t see an SSW likely. The current high has eaten away the heart of winter. It’s just one of those years I’m afraid. Hopefully 2022/3 will be our winter.

Disagree. Weve had sone cold weather so far... admittedly nothing significant but what I would describe as cold. Had many a worse winter up to this point for lack of anything cold..

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This year reminds me somewhat of the 2004/2005 winter but a drier version of it. That winter was generally milder than average up to this point. I'd pretty much written that one off by mid January as I'd not seen a single flake of snow and the odd colder snaps we did get I missed out completely.

Saw nothing at Christmas 2004 as I was on the wrong side of the country for that one and got some very watered down cold snaps later in January that produced sleet at best.

Then when we finally did hit the jackpot from around Feb 18th onwards it turned out to be a rather tame easterly to be fair.

Yes, the synoptics of late February and early March 2005 were great.  However, due to a lack of cold air to tap into, the easterly like you say was rather tame with temperatures typically around 4-6C.  I had numerous days where snow fell, but it rarely settled and when it did, it melted away rapidly.  That said I would happily take a repeat after the winter so far, but don't think it will happen.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, the synoptics of late February and early March 2005 were great.  However, due to a lack of cold air to tap into, the easterly like you say was rather tame with temperatures typically around 4-6C.  I had numerous days where snow fell, but it rarely settled and when it did, it melted away rapidly.  That said I would happily take a repeat after the winter so far, but don't think it will happen.

I've mentioned Feb 05 in historic thread. The synoptics on paper were great for cold but alas it was a rather tame feature. Still we hadn't seen any lengthy easterly spell in winter since Dec 96 into Jan 97 and it was a joy to see such synoptics again. Any cold since early 97 had come from northerlies. March 01 brought easterlies though.

 

[weathercold]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Disagree. Weve had sone cold weather so far... admittedly nothing significant but what I would describe as cold. Had many a worse winter up to this point for lack of anything cold..

How many days in Dec and Jan have registered below average in most UK cities? Not many … all depends what you interpret as cold I guess.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've mentioned Feb 05 in historic thread. The synoptics on paper were great for cold but alas it was a rather tame feature. Still we hadn't seen any lengthy easterly spell in winter since Dec 96 into Jan 97 and it was a joy to see such synoptics again. Any cold since early 97 had come from northerlies. March 01 brought easterlies though.

 

Didn't early January 2003 bring a brief spell of easterlies, before a potent northerly toppler at the end of the month?

Edited January 19, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

How many days in Dec and Jan have registered below average in most UK cities? Not many … all depends what you interpret as cold I guess.

Yes its open to interpretation.. what someone may describe as cold someone else may describe as mild.. always need to be careful with choice of words.

This month has produced a number of days with maxima 4-6 degree range which I would describe as cold whist being quite average for the time of year still. May be better to say colder than average days have been missing by and large. 

Just now, Don said:

Didn't early January 2003 bring a brief spell of easterlies?

Not very long lasting and with little long fetch. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Not very long lasting and with little long fetch. 

It was brief but London still had its most significant snowfall since February 1994 or even 1991.  However, it produced little snow away from London and the south east.

[sundog]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Rainfall in warm Septembers - Sep 1999 was very warm (15.6 CET) yet was also wet overall, and the warm September = mild winter theory worked pretty well that year.  Sep 2006 (the all time record holder) I believe had near average rainfall, and the very warm September 2021 was not far off average rainfall, as was the similarly warm September in 2016.  I certainly will always say that I believe that there will never be a cold winter, or at least not one that is anything special cold wise after a September CET that is significantly above average, and this winter yet again puts that theory to the test, along with decent background signals in the QBO, solar cycle etc.  A really warm September appears to be as equally poor background signal for cold winter weather in the UK as strong ENSO anomalies either way or as with 2019-20 any strong IOD anomaly, or high solar activity, westerly QBO etc.  Personally whenever September is anomalously warm I would during September, write the following winter off from being anything special.  

Seem to be in a 5 yr pattern with these very warm Septembers also.  01, 06,11 ,16 and 21. 2026..... the next one????

If so I'm already writing off the winter of 26/27 . Lol

Edited January 19, 2022 by sundog

[SqueakheartLW]

9 hours ago, sundog said:

Seem to be in a 5 yr pattern with these very warm Septembers also.  01, 06,11 ,16 and 21. 2026..... the next one????

If so I'm already writing off the winter of 26/27 . Lol

Was September 1996 a warm one then? I don't recall that one being anything notable for warmth and the winter that followed was cold initially, especially late December 1996 and early January 1997. Shame it went downhill after that though.

[sundog]

47 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Was September 1996 a warm one then? I don't recall that one being anything notable for warmth and the winter that followed was cold initially, especially late December 1996 and early January 1997. Shame it went downhill after that though.

I should have said the last number of warm Septembers  seems to be 5 yr intervals starting from 01 onwards. 

[Froze were the Days]

What a bore-fest our weather has become! nothing in the slightest to look forward to in the week or so ahead and then it looks like the return of the Atlantic towards February (which is meant to be one of the quieter months), Oh well at least it's been dry this month.

Last 6 months or so our weather has been mundane...only Storm Arwen back in late November was notable, Summer was very average, August was non-descript, a mild Autumn (warm September), a mild December and another snowless January in my back yard  (nothing since 2013).

Next thing come Spring we'll be chasing the 'hunt for T-storms' which will largely be non-existent through the summer months as well. One thing for sure GW isn't making the weather more exciting in this part of the world.

[Bowie1991]

It is odd to read that most of you suffer the no-snow  blues so far this winter, but please think on the B side of this record, we, up here in Grantown on Spey are tired of snow and constant below zero nights, we long for some warmth or mild weather to give us a break if only for a few days.  Last November we had really heavy snow, December too, currently this January so far has only had a few moderate falls but it continues to freeze up every night.  We hold the UK record for the coldest night ever recorded, minus 27C and to this we do not want to see again.

Every March we usually get yet another continuous  very bad snow which kills many of the new Lambs,   Should you love these conditions then why not plan a holiday for a week / month?

I will never forget the day when it snowed heavily in June either.

[Arch Stanton]

I just had a look at the Scottish Mountain webcams, it looks like late May early Mid June such is the lack of snow on them..

There won’t be any snow patches left by July at this rate

 

[Nick L]

15 minutes ago, Bowie1991 said:

It is odd to read that most of you suffer the no-snow  blues so far this winter, but please think on the B side of this record, we, up here in Grantown on Spey are tired of snow and constant below zero nights, we long for some warmth or mild weather to give us a break if only for a few days.  Last November we had really heavy snow, December too, currently this January so far has only had a few moderate falls but it continues to freeze up every night.  We hold the UK record for the coldest night ever recorded, minus 27C and to this we do not want to see again.

Every March we usually get yet another continuous  very bad snow which kills many of the new Lambs,   Should you love these conditions then why not plan a holiday for a week / month?

I will never forget the day when it snowed heavily in June either.

I don't think those who work at the ski centres will share your view at all.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Nick L

[MP-R]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I've mentioned Feb 05 in historic thread. The synoptics on paper were great for cold but alas it was a rather tame feature. Still we hadn't seen any lengthy easterly spell in winter since Dec 96 into Jan 97 and it was a joy to see such synoptics again. Any cold since early 97 had come from northerlies. March 01 brought easterlies though.

 

And Jan 2003. Dec 2002 also brought snow off an easterly down here, although it was an easterly that had its sources further south so turned less cold with time.

[MP-R]

12 hours ago, Don said:

Didn't early January 2003 bring a brief spell of easterlies, before a potent northerly toppler at the end of the month?

Just saw your reply. Yes indeed - vivid memories of flooded fields from late December all iced over. By the end of the cold spell, the water underneath had drained away and left what looked like a glass covering over the top. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

I can see that there is a link between warm Septembers and poor winters from a cold P.O.V to follow.  I really think that last year's very warm September really nailed the coffin for significant cold this winter and the warm September theory has been tested to its truth yet again.  Warm Septembers are a winter killer pattern for the winter to follow.