Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Beast from the east end of feb

Short lived April snow I'd say this year, with settling snow to the south - but in an overall warm and sunny month.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I think it's Septembers with CET's of around 15C or more that are bad news for the following winter. 2009 was only CET 14.2C

September 2009 wasn't extraordinarily warm, it was not that far above average (14.2), compared to 13.6 (61-90) and 13.7 (71-00).  Another example of something similar to this was 1978, also 14.2 CET.  I actually think that although there is not much of a correlation, it appears that it is still possible to get a cold winter after Septembers that are just above average (low 14s), but significantly above average Septembers appear to be a winter killer.  

For comparison, the warmest September that I can think of that has been followed by a good cold winter was 1985, which was 14.6 CET, at or approaching 1*C above average.  I cannot think of a September warmer than 1985s 14.6 that has led to a good cold winter.  September 1981 also had 14.5 and led to the December / January freeze that winter.  I think that when September is about the mid 14s CET, then I can think of a few good winters that have occurred after them, but Septembers warmer than that, I cannot.

I think if we had not had last year's really warm September, I think that there would have been a good chance that this winter would have seen the pattern come together for a significant cold spell to reach the UK.  Warm Septembers really are winter killer patterns.  It appears to be a well known fact of the British weather patterns that it is very rare to get a cold winter to follow a really warm September, and they are always more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter.

A cool or average September is certainly better news with respect to colder winter weather to follow, but there is by no means any correlation that way round as there is with the warm September being a winter killer pattern.  I find it weird that the September trend link appears to only be evident at one end - after a warm September.

[Summer8906]

14 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

September 2009 wasn't extraordinarily warm, it was not that far above average (14.2), compared to 13.6 (61-90) and 13.7 (71-00).  Another example of something similar to this was 1978, also 14.2 CET.  I actually think that although there is not much of a correlation, it appears that it is still possible to get a cold winter after Septembers that are just above average (low 14s), but significantly above average Septembers appear to be a winter killer. 

Yes, fair point - actually I think this point was made some time ago come to think of it.

I am surprised that 2009 was not more definitely warm though - perhaps the south was disproportionately warm, or the CET was dragged down by cold nights? It certainly 'seemed' one of the warmest and sunniest of the past 15 years, and IIRC had many days reaching or exceeding 20C right until near the end of the month.

While we're on the topic, how about September 1990? I seem to recall that one being warm and sunny too, but quite possibly in a similar category to 2009 or 1978.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, mathematician said:

... about something unrelated to the UK and that we haven't experienced this year.

If one day i move to Lapland shall I start posting here daily pictures of my winter wonderland? What for? What's the point?

You’re entitled to your view. Not sure why it’s such a problem for you, though? If a Norwegian was posting daily pics from Lapland in here it might be a bit odd, but it’s Brits living abroad doing it. Those of us living outside of the UK don’t post daily pics in here either, rather just when there are weather events of interest.
Even though where I live now has more defined seasons and more exciting weather than my west London hometown (not hard), the weather is still mundane for the most part.

[SqueakheartLW]

16 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Yes, fair point - actually I think this point was made some time ago come to think of it.

I am surprised that 2009 was not more definitely warm though - perhaps the south was disproportionately warm, or the CET was dragged down by cold nights? It certainly 'seemed' one of the warmest and sunniest of the past 15 years, and IIRC had many days reaching or exceeding 20C right until near the end of the month.

While we're on the topic, how about September 1990? I seem to recall that one being warm and sunny too, but quite possibly in a similar category to 2009 or 1978.

CET of September 1990 was only 13.2C so slightly below average temp wise

[SqueakheartLW]

31 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

September 2009 wasn't extraordinarily warm, it was not that far above average (14.2), compared to 13.6 (61-90) and 13.7 (71-00).  Another example of something similar to this was 1978, also 14.2 CET.  I actually think that although there is not much of a correlation, it appears that it is still possible to get a cold winter after Septembers that are just above average (low 14s), but significantly above average Septembers appear to be a winter killer.  

For comparison, the warmest September that I can think of that has been followed by a good cold winter was 1985, which was 14.6 CET, at or approaching 1*C above average.  I cannot think of a September warmer than 1985s 14.6 that has led to a good cold winter.  September 1981 also had 14.5 and led to the December / January freeze that winter.  I think that when September is about the mid 14s CET, then I can think of a few good winters that have occurred after them, but Septembers warmer than that, I cannot.

I think if we had not had last year's really warm September, I think that there would have been a good chance that this winter would have seen the pattern come together for a significant cold spell to reach the UK.  Warm Septembers really are winter killer patterns.  It appears to be a well known fact of the British weather patterns that it is very rare to get a cold winter to follow a really warm September, and they are always more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter.

A cool or average September is certainly better news with respect to colder winter weather to follow, but there is by no means any correlation that way round as there is with the warm September being a winter killer pattern.  I find it weird that the September trend link appears to only be evident at one end - after a warm September.

The warmest September in the CET record that went on to produce a colder winter was in fact September 1659

September 1659     CET 16.0C     +3.18C above 1661 to 1690 mean

 

December 1659      CET 2.0C       -1.42C below 1661 to 1690 mean

January 1660           CET 0.0C       -2.92C below 1661 to 1690 mean

February 1660        CET 4.0C       +1.00C above 1661 to 1690 mean

OVERALL                 CET 2.0C       - 1.11C below 1661 to 1690 mean

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The warmest September in the CET record that went on to produce a colder winter was in fact September 1659

September 1659     CET 16.0C     +3.18C above 1661 to 1690 mean

 

December 1659      CET 2.0C       -1.42C below 1661 to 1690 mean

January 1660           CET 0.0C       -2.92C below 1661 to 1690 mean

February 1660        CET 4.0C       +1.00C above 1661 to 1690 mean

OVERALL                 CET 2.0C       - 1.11C below 1661 to 1690 mean

I do not know how relevant that would be 360 years later.  Certainly in recent times if not recent decades it certainly has existed that there is a link between warm Septembers and milder winters to follow, and it is very rare to get a cold winter after a really warm September.  I think that the background signals of an easterly QBO, a moderate eastern based La Nina, and shortly after a solar minimum were good background signals for a significant cold spell to manifest itself this winter, but I really think that coming after a very warm September that chance was significantly reduced, making the point all the more marked that warm Septembers are winter killer patterns for the winter to follow.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, saintkip said:

-6 in Bournemouth? That’s exceptional 

-4.3c in Winch. Loving it! Nearest to snow we will get innit!

5 hours ago, Azazel said:

We all know winter will arrive in March-May.

I don't think I could hack another spring like last year. Awful.

What was worse was that summer followed suite! It was horrific!!

[Mapantz]

6 hours ago, saintkip said:

-6 in Bournemouth? That’s exceptional 

-6.9°C

Not overly exceptional. Hurn airport usually gets the lowest minima around Dorset.

Only -3.7°C here, and I'm not that far away.

[cheeky_monkey]

Had another weather first yesterday...it was raining yet the temperature was -15c 

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

You’re entitled to your view. Not sure why it’s such a problem for you, though? If a Norwegian was posting daily pics from Lapland in here it might be a bit odd, but it’s Brits living abroad doing it. Those of us living outside of the UK don’t post daily pics in here either, rather just when there are weather events of interest.
Even though where I live now has more defined seasons and more exciting weather than my west London hometown (not hard), the weather is still mundane for the most part.

Exactly..i have lived in Canada for pretty much 12 years..i only post pics of stuff if i think people on here might find interesting..i could post pics of snow everyday during the winter but that would be boring

[stainesbloke]

Very heavy graupel shower here has left a 1cm covering....looks like a giant beanbag has exploded over the city

[pip22]

I don't like the setup atm it is boring. I hope this time next week we will see change. Hoping for colder, changeable weather or a major storm. 

[Summer8906]

Cloud has arrived here earlier than expected - forecast was suggesting not until tomorrow down here yet it clouded over around, perhaps even before, midday.

Hoping we do get more sun this month - the problem is that despite the high, the wind is too westerly - and westerly winds plus high pressure generally equal anticyclonic gloom. Hoping for more weak fronts from the north to clear out the clag and re-inject polar air, it would be nice to not get *yet another* cloudier than average month!

Hoping that spring is indeed much sunnier than normal, sunshine totals since June 2020 must be very low compared to the norm so we're well overdue a few sunny months. Indeed, if you take April and May 2020 out of the equation I suspect it has been unusually dull since around October 2019.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

35 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I don't like the setup atm it is boring. I hope this time next week we will see change. Hoping for colder, changeable weather or a major storm. 

Hoping for colder and sunnier weather, certainly. We've had a few sunny days in the past 10 days but now it looks like we're back into the overcast which dominated most of last summer and autumn.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CET of September 1990 was only 13.2C so slightly below average temp wise

OK thanks. Remarkable how perception differs from reality, but CET is not the same as 'Southern England average max temp' which is probably the criterion my perception is based on.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Summer8906

[Bowie1991]

So far January has been great up here in Grantown on Spey, We said goodbye to our Snow but hello to Sunny days followed by hard Frosts,   We have had a few mild days which is so welcome.

But I'm not complacent as there is still a chunk of January to go, not forgetting Generals February, March and April.

Looks as though there isn't going to be any extreme weather for at least a week, anyone got any updates re that ?

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is just so sickening that when we have an easterly QBO in place and an eastern based not so strong La Nina that we had a really warm September that tested the theory again and really reduced the chance of cold weather this winter, and we are just left with a pattern that just simply does not come together to set up a significant cold spell for the UK - and that has been the case almost right from when winter started.  This winter was already dead in the water back in September following the anomalous warmth that month.  If you want significant winter cold in the UK then you do not want a really warm September or otherwise you can write the coming winter off then.

[Skullzrulerz]

Had a frost and it was partly icy this morning.

It felt like winter for the first time in ages.

[carinthian]

14 hours ago, saintkip said:

Keep the snowy picks coming, I like to pretend they’re mine. Minus 3 in Basingstoke this morning so another frost, 4th this week. Exciting 

OK, these taken in the village this afternoon. Now a 48 hour snow event.  Current temp -12c and still snowing as bed time approaches !

C

[John Stevens]

59 minutes ago, carinthian said:

OK, these taken in the village this afternoon. Now a 48 hour snow event.  Current temp -12c and still snowing as bed time approaches !

C

@carinthian I was quoting you in the local pub tonight…. Many friends are planning on skiing in the next couple of weeks…I suggested your ski area…. Unfortunately myself, I will not be skiing for an unprecedented third season…. How in wish for even a covering here in the Surrey Hills!!! Enjoy the skiing and keep posting the pictures…. Despite my jealously at least I can enjoy the picture

[PiscesStar]

Hopefully the high pressure which has given some lovely settled conditions looks set to relocate on a westward trajectory looking at the latest gfs run and it looks COLD as a run... opening up to northerly polar maritime flow chances... Bout time I SAY. Let it Snow ? 

Edited January 22, 2022 by PiscesStar

[Donegal]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

OK, these taken in the village this afternoon. Now a 48 hour snow event.  Current temp -12c and still snowing as bed time approaches !

C

Lovely. What altitude ?

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, Donegal said:

Lovely. What altitude ?

Just over 1300m

C

[carinthian]

8 hours ago, John Stevens said:

@carinthian I was quoting you in the local pub tonight…. Many friends are planning on skiing in the next couple of weeks…I suggested your ski area…. Unfortunately myself, I will not be skiing for an unprecedented third season…. How in wish for even a covering here in the Surrey Hills!!! Enjoy the skiing and keep posting the pictures…. Despite my jealously at least I can enjoy the picture

Shame about that. Yes,the Salzburger Sportwelt area offers some fantastic ski-ing all with village atmosphere from lovely Filmoos and its gentle slopes to Zauchensee with its full on wide cruising runs. Maybe next year you can make a visit .?  Surrey Hills, played cricket match once there at Coldharbour C.C. Great location under Leith Hill. Not exactly the Italian Stelvio Pass but much more pretty than there, especially when the snow does eventually make a visit to your lovely part of England.

C