Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Kentish Man]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What a bore-fest our weather has become! nothing in the slightest to look forward to in the week or so ahead and then it looks like the return of the Atlantic towards February (which is meant to be one of the quieter months), Oh well at least it's been dry this month.

Last 6 months or so our weather has been mundane...only Storm Arwen back in late November was notable, Summer was very average, August was non-descript, a mild Autumn (warm September), a mild December and another snowless January in my back yard  (nothing since 2013).

Next thing come Spring we'll be chasing the 'hunt for T-storms' which will largely be non-existent through the summer months as well. One thing for sure GW isn't making the weather more exciting in this part of the world.

And there is always the concern in the cycle of things such a long run of settled, dry but boring Winter weather will be offset by a relentlessly miserable and wet Spring or Summer. 

[Froze were the Days]

36 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

And there is always the concern in the cycle of things such a long run of settled, dry but boring Winter weather will be offset by a relentlessly miserable and wet Spring or Summer. 

I was actually going to add that to my post...my bets are on a wet February and March.

[Lampostwatcher]

Beast from the east end of feb

[stainesbloke]

Pretty lively weather day here with a squall line going through earlier with very heavy snow for a time, then the giant polystyrene balls type of snow with lightning and thunder. Some very strong gusts of wind, too, when it calmed down all I could hear were sirens for a while. Now sunny and very blustery from the NW, 2°C. 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Kentish Man said:

And there is always the concern in the cycle of things such a long run of settled, dry but boring Winter weather will be offset by a relentlessly miserable and wet Spring or Summer. 

Signals are a lot better than the last couple of years - La Nina should be done with by the time summer arrives, and we may even start moving into El Nino



The link below shows historical ENSO values. While pattern matching from these isn't a 100% fool proof way to predict the weather, you can look back at years where La Nina was weakening to neutral or turning positive again through late spring and early summer.....and you can find 1976/2006/2018 in the list. It tends to be that La Nina in high summer is usually bad for the UK. While we clearly can't bank on a repeat of any of the scorchers above, it gives a better than average chance of it being decent.
 

Climate Prediction Center - ONI

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by mb018538

[johncam]

Managed a frost this morning 4th of the winter woohoo,  turned cloudy now and met have us cloudy for next 7 days and relatively mild , depressing 

 

 

 

[lassie23]

It is almost February, things are starting to look desperate. 

[AderynCoch]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Pretty lively weather day here with a squall line going through earlier with very heavy snow for a time, then the giant polystyrene balls type of snow with lightning and thunder. Some very strong gusts of wind, too, when it calmed down all I could hear were sirens for a while. Now sunny and very blustery from the NW, 2°C. 

IMG_1729.MOV

That must have been the same stuff that hit me this afternoon. I left home in the sunshine for a stroll in the forest when I suddenly got caught out in horizontal snow. Didn't see it coming at all!

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Enough is enough now! snowless January is extremely likely for my location, no advantage to frosty highs without snow on the ground! it may as well be mild, looks milder next week but really don't mind, no snow due anyway and none to thaw, last January probably goes down as milder but quite snowy here

after snow, I like cold frosty highs to keep snowcover and cold air inversion,

[Don]

The outlook seems to be getting bleaker and bleaker by the day for cold and snow prospects!

[RJBingham]

Saw a Bumblebee and a Butterfly today, has the  Spring thread started yet?

 

[SqueakheartLW]

3 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Saw a Bumblebee and a Butterfly today, has the  Spring thread started yet?

 

Probably. We seem to have jumped straight from autumn to spring and skipped winter entirely.

At least that's an improvement on 2019/2020 when we had 6 straight months of autumn

[carinthian]

Total whiteout this afternoon. Severe winds and blowing snow cutting down visibiity. Chairlifts closed early. So windy you can hardly stand up. Temp fell from -2c at 10am to -10c by 4pm. Giant snow drifts forming around buildings.

C

[SqueakheartLW]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

The outlook seems to be getting bleaker and bleaker by the day for cold and snow prospects!

Maybe time for us to start praying that September 2022 isn't a mild one if we want to salvage any chance of a decent winter 2022/2023

[carinthian]

6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Total whiteout this afternoon. Severe winds and blowing snow cutting down visibiity. Chairlifts closed early. So windy you can hardly stand up. Temp fell from -2c at 10am to -10c by 4pm. Giant snow drifts forming around buildings.

C

 

[damianslaw]

Snowfall wise admittedly this winter so far very poor, but temp wise not a patch on the mild dross we endured up to this point in winters 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19 and 19-20. Even if the rest of the winter stays snowless and turns milder it will still be better than 13-14 and 19-20.. probably on a par with 16-17. 15-16 was better second half for cold at least. 18-19 brought a colder latter part to Jan. 

 

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

That must have been the same stuff that hit me this afternoon. I left home in the sunshine for a stroll in the forest when I suddenly got caught out in horizontal snow. Didn't see it coming at all!

 

 

Yes, think it swept across to you. Came in here so quickly, the wind was crazy. Having more very heavy snow showers and strong winds this evening.

[SqueakheartLW]

Starting to think we could be writing off the first half of summer 2022 if these 60N zonal wind predictions are correct. Any year I can think of where we saw a late collapse of the polar vortex has gone on to produce a poor early to mid part of the following summer.

This happened in 1997 if I do recall, a late collapse of the vortex and we saw the dramatic shift in the weather around May Day bank holiday that year. We went on to have a cool and wet May and June that year.

I think 2011 had something similar and if I do recall that summer wasn't up to much.

[andy989]

14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

My God, 9pm on a late January evening and we haven't had a post in the 'Hunt for Cold' thread in over an hour.

Says it all  

Andy

This is why I’m getting married in our favourite place next January, within the arctic circle in Lapland, Finland, guaranteed snow.   But I bet you whilst we are there the uk will have the biggest snow event ever and I won’t be there 

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Snowfall wise admittedly this winter so far very poor, but temp wise not a patch on the mild dross we endured up to this point in winters 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19 and 19-20. Even if the rest of the winter stays snowless and turns milder it will still be better than 13-14 and 19-20.. probably on a par with 16-17. 15-16 was better second half for cold at least. 18-19 brought a colder latter part to Jan. 

 

This Winter isn't over until it is over. Agreed I would take a week or two of crisp winter sunshine (not to mention the nice sunrises/sunsets) over relentless rain, wind and mild. I still consider 5-15 February the make or break period of this winter, and that is well in FI currently.

18-19 was redeemed for some southerners (me included) by that plentiful snowfall on 31 Jan-1st Feb. 6/7 inches of snow was more than enough to keep me happy and then early summer followed shortly after for those hoping for Spring. If that snow event was more widespread I'm sure many on here would take February 2019 again.

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe time for us to start praying that September 2022 isn't a mild one if we want to salvage any chance of a decent winter 2022/2023

Without doubt!  I know the warm September theory vs mild winter is controversial, but it's a big red flag for winter as far as I'm concerned!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Starting to think we could be writing off the first half of summer 2022 if these 60N zonal wind predictions are correct. Any year I can think of where we saw a late collapse of the polar vortex has gone on to produce a poor early to mid part of the following summer.

This happened in 1997 if I do recall, a late collapse of the vortex and we saw the dramatic shift in the weather around May Day bank holiday that year. We went on to have a cool and wet May and June that year.

I think 2011 had something similar and if I do recall that summer wasn't up to much.

What a cheery thought!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What a cheery thought!

The high pressure we have now could be the closest we get to experiencing summer this year!  

Those zonal wind charts do look extreme, but who knows in this day and age?!

Edited January 20, 2022 by Don

[mathematician]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

 

I don't understand why you're constantly rubbing salt in the wound.

Fine , you live in a part of the world where it's easy to see snow, we get it. Good for you, but don't constantly brag about it!

 

It's like showing a picture of a banquet to someone that you know hasn't eaten in days. Why would you do that? I'm sure there's an Austrian weather forum somewhere,!

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

The high pressure we have now could be the closest we get to experiencing summer this year!  

Oh no the thought!