Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

ECM Day 10 interesting in the way the Arctic high forms.  Can it nose into Greenland and suck the heights out of Europe?  Big ask but possible.  I know we are scrapping the barrel but it is what it is!

Thing is why.... We had wonderful synoptics yet we still cannot get cold to our shores.... What will it take folks?? 

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Thing is why.... We had wonderful synoptics yet we still cannot get cold to our shores.... What will it take folks?? 

The UK only covers a fraction of the Earth's surface ,in fact it's so small it works out at about 0.01% of the Earth's surface. To get deep cold to our shores we need the wind and air coming from the Artic area be it northwest ,north ,northeast .or this time of year East courtesy of a very cold land mass. Unfortunately for coldies as our islands only cover a tiny amount of the earth's surface getting the right synoptics to give coldies the goodies is really a lottery. In 53 years I've only experienced minus 20 in my location about twice, once in January 1982 and December 2010.  So to get full blown on extreme cold for the uk is unusual, surprising and rare. Giving we live next to the North Atlantic and our default wind direction is westerly or southwesterly, I'm surprised at the extremes of cold we get in some years, but for coldies fans it's all or nothing, if there is no deep snow or deep cold in there back garden then all the rest of the normal British Winter synoptics don't exist and Winter becomes a right off. Today it's misty foggy, and subzero, and white with frost, with the sun promising to make an appearance with crystal clear blue skies later. Well it's Winter British style in my back Garden anyway!☺

[mb018538]

Been lovely to see so much sun this week. December was ghastly with endless grey skies....the last few days here have been sunny all day.

[reef]

December saw only 38 hours of sunshine all month here yet the first 13 days of January have recorded 44 hours. Quite a different month so far, 3.5 hours a day on average is impressive for January.

Today is clear again too so we could be pushing 50 hours by the end of today.

[Sunny76]

Far from an expert, but is there a chance the current cold and dry weather, will produce a snowy spell further down the line?

Not saying it will happen. I’m enjoying this weather, and would be happy if it stays like this for the remainder of winter, with or without snow. Just keep the damp rubbish at bay. 

[Guest]

Not looked at the models in the last few days. What’s going on with the cold plunge early next? Was a slam dunk in the MAD thread a few days ago? Do I need my coat and snow shovel? 

[RJBingham]

Just now, Alderc said:

Not looked at the models in the last few days. What’s going on with the cold plunge early next? Was a slam dunk in the MAD thread a few days ago? Do I need my coat and snow shovel? 

No, it was only the GFS.

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Far from an expert, but is there a chance the current cold and dry weather, will produce a snowy spell further down the line?

Not saying it will happen. I’m enjoying this weather, and would be happy if it stays like this for the remainder of winter, with or without snow. Just keep the damp rubbish at bay. 

Not looking like it for the moment. More likely when the high does eventually collapse it will be replaced by +NAO weather (as per ECM update last night. All the blue boxes in Feb correlate to +NAO....so something westerly based, which part of SW/W/NW to be determined)

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not looked at the models in the last few days. What’s going on with the cold plunge early next? Was a slam dunk in the MAD thread a few days ago? Do I need my coat and snow shovel? 

Get your seaweed out its more accurate than those blasted computer models.....here's my seaweed outside on the line

[weathercold]

Not long until spring now - keep the faith!

In a month and a bit time we can start chasing warmer weather…can’t come soon enough after this sorry excuse for a winter.

[damianslaw]

Still a lot of winter left for snow.. indeed a good 2 months or so for low level snow nationwide.. add at least another month for northern parts.. dont be surprised to see March or even April deliver a snowy surprise or two. Happened many a time after relatively snowless winters.. not saying we will have to wait that long but can never discount snow prospects until after April I say.. 

[Frigid]

I took last winter for granted, we got so much snow and frost I lost count. This winter I've had no snow (except on 28th Nov), and only 2 frosts. I find it hard to believe that Winter 2019/2020 had more frosts than this one so far. 

Wth the current synoptics you'd except some good inversion with hard frosts, fog and cold days, instead it feels like March with hardly anything to offer. The usual benign, nondescript weather we're all accustomed to.

I hope February has something to offer to save this winter!

 

[joggs]

I know we have falling unlucky again in our pursuit for snow but I'm enjoy the no rain n wind aspect. We SHOULD receive some winter for us coldies but it could be worse imo.

[Hull 1963]

 We have a full moon on the 17th some solar/lunar forcing, which models do not account for,  this may nudge the cold our way via activating the Atlantic.

We shall see.

[Updated_Weather]

On 14/01/2022 at 11:04, Hull 1963 said:

 We have a full moon on the 17th some solar/lunar forcing, which models do not account for,  this may nudge the cold our way via activating the Atlantic.

We shall see.

Yeah don’t think that’s how it works.. 

[georgiedre]

17 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Yeah don’t think that’s how it works.. 

I think a lot of forecasters use this as their own method.. I'm sure bftp said something about this too. I think it usually starts as a nothing but during a lunar cycle it could possibly get colder as we move through it. We shall see

[TSNWK]

28 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

 We have a full moon on the 17th some solar/lunar forcing, which models do not account for,  this may nudge the cold our way via activating the Atlantic.

We shall see.

What! Lunar forcing... New one for me... And if was a factor then surely models would take into account something as stable and the lunar cycle

[georgiedre]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What! Lunar forcing... New one for me... And if was a factor then surely models would take into account something as stable and the lunar cycle

Don't know about forcing but the moon has more ssay in our weather than people's think.. high moon during higher pressure can lead yo bulges in the layers above (I think that's what they said when I did science at school. ) and obviously it can affect the tides etc so that weather systems and winds can be stronger etc . Both of these are quite obvious and therefore cannot be discounted in forecasting the weather.  Or at least one of the drivers of meteorology.  Anyway who cares.. just bring us cold and snow now  

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

Don't know about forcing but the moon has more ssay in our weather than people's think.. high moon during higher pressure can lead yo bulges in the layers above (I think that's what they said when I did science at school. ) and obviously it can affect the tides etc so that weather systems and winds can be stronger etc . Both of these are quite obvious and therefore cannot be discounted in forecasting the weather.  Or at least one of the drivers of meteorology.  Anyway who cares.. just bring us cold and snow now  

But apart from a few daft predictions, which are wrong more often than they're right, no one has yet produced any evidence. Unless, of course, one finds Piers Corbyn's deluded nonsense compelling? On balance, I'll stick with the models!

[SussexSnowman]

I've enjoyed a run of single digit temperature days this week. Sun has been out as has the blue sky and some most welcome frosts. Starting to feel more seasonal compared with the last few weeks. 

[damianslaw]

Those wanting a regular snow fix (from an arm chair!) not that long until Winter Olympics start 4 Feb! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Those wanting a regular snow fix (from an arm chair!) not that long until Winter Olympics start 4 Feb! 

This is why I watch ski Sunday lol

[Hull 1963]

3 hours ago, Updated_Weather said:

Yeah don’t think that’s how it works.. 

On the contrary. There are many knowledgeable forecasters that think solar influences do have quite a large bearing on our weather systems. To dismiss the possibility out of hand would be foolish, ignorant and very shortsighted in my view. 

 I believe we will see more proof of this over the coming years.

[rotherhamsnowman]

See the Express is running with the cold story 

Quote

UK snow forecast: Britain to turn white as freezing snow bomb looms, maps show

FREEZING SNOW is likely to turn Britain white by the middle of next week, according to early forecast maps.

Quote

Snow prediction forecasts by WXCharts show Britain could be blanketed in a layer of snow later this month as a wave of cold air is set to sweep across Europe. According to the charts, an ice cold weather front is likely to arrive on Wednesday 19 January and could persist for at least a week.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1549883/uk-snow-weather-forecast-maps-met-office-prediction-ont

[Hull 1963]

3 hours ago, georgiedre said:

Don't know about forcing but the moon has more ssay in our weather than people's think.. high moon during higher pressure can lead yo bulges in the layers above (I think that's what they said when I did science at school. ) and obviously it can affect the tides etc so that weather systems and winds can be stronger etc . Both of these are quite obvious and therefore cannot be discounted in forecasting the weather.  Or at least one of the drivers of meteorology.  Anyway who cares.. just bring us cold and snow now  

 

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But apart from a few daft predictions, which are wrong more often than they're right, no one has yet produced any evidence. Unless, of course, one finds Piers Corbyn's deluded nonsense compelling? On balance, I'll stick with the models!

Well I used to think the same about Corbyn and his predictions, so  three years ago I decided to put my money where my mouth was, so to speak, and paid for his long range forecasts over a two year period, to see for myself just how accurate they were.  What I found was,  that although he wasn't 100 percent accurate, he was still far more accurate over that 2 year period than the met office or any of their models.

I have no idea how he does it or what his exact formula is but there is no denying in my honest opinion that his accuracy is uncanny but quite good overall.  Or at least it was during the two years that I experimented by paying for his forecasts.  I haven't since paid for one of his forecasts but I do occasionally look at the comments on their blog page on which there are some very interested theories and comments put forward by far more knowledgeable people than me.  Comments from Piers www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=846&c=5      

 Reading between the lines of one or two of their comments,  I get the impression that they are looking at some sort of change for the last 3rd of January onward.  It will be interesting to see just what does happen. If things do go against what all the models are currently saying , it will certainly pose a few interesting questions.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Hull 1963